Looking at the mood and rhythm of the traders in the Northeast who "collect grain", it seems that they have seen the banner of victory, but in fact, all this is an "illusion" - the market is still the market, the demand is still the demand, but the mood has changed, nothing more.
The opposite of the "illusion" is the "reality", and the reality is that the price of Jilin is higher than that of the farmed grain in North China, Shanxi and other places, so the bulk grain in North China and the package grain in Shanxi will be supplied to the market for a period of time.
In the short term, the corn in the Northeast wants to rise "overnight", and if there is no blessing of corn futures, there is a high probability that a "tragicomedy" will be staged in the world.
First of all, the sporadic wheat on the market in Hubei has different toxin problems, and the basic channel export of these wheat can only be feed, and this part of the wheat will squeeze out a part of the share of farmed corn.
Secondly, the quality of high-quality corn in the Northeast is better, and the frenzied entry of the second breed makes feed companies have the willingness to actively purchase, but they are subject to tight liquidity and changes in procurement, and it is also a "squeezing toothpaste" model.
To sum up, in the short term, if Northeast corn wants to directly "turn over", it will be affected by factors such as futures, weather, sentiment, auctions, policies, etc., so it is very likely that everyone's brain will make you disappointed.
Hello friends, today is May 13, 2024, starting yesterday, the morning arrival of vehicles at the port began to increase, and "increase" means that unloading begins to be difficult, and "constipation" has to begin, and if the number of vehicles continues to increase, it means that it begins to "lose conscience".
Insiders look at the doorway, laymen look at the excitement, has the purchase price of the port really risen?
We pushed back to April, the price of 15 moisture in the port was 2360 yuan, and in May, the price of 14.5 moisture in the port was 2370 yuan. Understand for yourself.
Therefore, the price fluctuations of Northeast ports began to closely follow the changes in the rhythm of red and green futures.
Traders in the northeast producing areas are rushing for corn with 10~11 moisture, such as treasures, on the one hand, they can be blended, on the other hand, they are ready to fight a protracted war.
But can this long-cherished wish really be fulfilled?
First of all, the purchased low-moisture corn looks very cost-effective on the surface, but at the same time, it also pushes up your acquisition cost, which is not as good as 14-moisture corn, and there is no advantage in cost.
Secondly, low-moisture corn is even more cost-effective when it is sold, because the market only accepts corn with 14.5 moisture, and you are 9 moisture, and 14.5 moisture is sold at the same price.
Therefore, what you think is a treasure may be an egg in the end, I hope you don't go the old way of rushing to buy 16~17 moisture corn in the early stage.
Another point, in mid to late May, imported corn is likely to be auctioned, and now we are starting to prepare for the preliminary work, the road of corn market can be imagined - how many people will flee in a hurry?
In other words, each wave of decline will "force" those who are not determined to get off the bus, and then go up again, but then not as much as they want, and then fall back and go up again – and so on.
In the face of shattered faith, in the face of this market of gains and losses, how many people have a strong heart? How many people have strong endurance?
On the other hand, in the North China corn market, Shandong deep processing has begun to rise in competition in the past few days, why did it suddenly rise?
It's very simple, the bearish market is consistent all over the market, scaring everyone to lose money and rush to sell grain, especially those who lose money, shouting at their peers to lose money and sell together, eager to lose their shoes.
Corn has been falling since the Spring Festival to the present, up to 5 months, when it falls to a certain time, both farmers and traders will be resistant to the price, so the price must rise. In other words, the time has come.
Although there has been a price increase in deep processing, the market is still relatively very pessimistic, believing that the current price increase is "nothing" - bright rise and dark fall. Such a large amount of corn must be supplied to deep processing in the end.
The current point in time is the game between deep processing and traders, in other words, to see who can hold on. The high probability of the result seems to be in line with psychological expectations only if the trader loses.
Therefore, in the short term, such a market is indeed the case, and everyone's expectation is very low, as long as they do not lose money, they are "happy". In the past month, the corn in North China has been like an "intestinal obstruction", "pulling" the grain source out wave by wave, and there will be a price drop market, and then there will be a real rising market.
And this point in time is about June, why is there such an argument?
1. New wheat is on the market, regardless of whether the price is high or low, traders will basically actively purchase wheat, which will have a break period, so the corn in North China will rise in price wave after wave.
2, into June, is also the breeding break period, now the second breeding crazy entry, are expected to have a market in June ~ July, so the demand for breeding corn will also increase.
Basically, these two factors, I arbitrarily believe that whether it is Tiannan or Haibei, corn has officially entered the price increase channel.
Different understandings, different points of view, wealth and wealth are grasped by themselves. When the price should be raised, no one can stop it, and when it is time to drop the price, no one can stop it. (Personal opinion, for reference only, does not represent correct, all nonsense)
The latest corn prices in the country on May 13, 2024
Henan Feitian starch: 1.105 yuan, up 5%.
Henan Mengzhou Golden Corn: 1.1 yuan, down 5 cents.
Shaanxi Baoji Fufeng: 1.12 yuan, down 5%.
Hebei Yufeng Group No. 1 Park: 1.125 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Ensign Industry: 1.2 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Zhonggu starch: 1.14 yuan, up 4%.
Shandong Fukuan Biological: 1.14 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Hengren Industry and Trade: 1.135 yuan, up 2%.
Shandong Xiwang starch: 1.197 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong lemon biochemical: 1.235 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Seven Star Lemon: 1.173 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Baolingbao Biological: 1.15 yuan, up 7%.
Shandong Weifang Shengtai Pharmaceutical: 1.144 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Shouguang Juneng Golden Corn: 1.15 yuan, up 4%.
Shandong Yishui Land: The price of the stack is 1.165 yuan, and the price of the material is 1.155 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Linqing Dejin corn: 1.122 yuan, up 3%. The first price increase.
Shandong Linqing De Golden Corn: 1.127 yuan, up 5%. The second price increase. A total of 8% higher.
Shandong Binzhou Jinhui corn: 1.143 yuan within 18 moisture, 1.138 yuan above 18 moisture, up 5%.
Shandong Chengwu land: 1.119 yuan below 20 moisture, 1.109 yuan for 20~25 moisture, 1.084 yuan above 25 moisture, up 5%.
Shandong Dazecheng Biological: 1.125 yuan below 20 moisture, 1.115 yuan for 20~25 moisture, 1.095 yuan above 25 moisture, up 5%. The first price increase.
Shandong Dazecheng Biology: 1.13 yuan below 20 moisture, 1.12 yuan for 20~25 moisture, 1.1 yuan above 25 moisture, up 5%. The second price increase. Up 1 point in total.
Heilongjiang Jidong Guotou: 13 moisture 1.1081 yuan, 14 moisture 1.095 yuan, 15 moisture 1.0819 yuan, 16 moisture 1.0687 yuan, 17 moisture 1.0556 yuan, 18 moisture 1.0424 yuan, up 1 point.