Chen Mai has been falling endlessly, and the market has fallen to the point that the market is "incomplete". The new wheat has not yet been harvested, and the flour companies have already announced the purchase price in advance. But I never expected that the new wheat would produce "moths" again.
Two days ago, the purchase price of Henan Suiping Wudeli Xinmai was 1.26 yuan, and now it has fallen by 5 cents, and the purchase price has come to 1.255 yuan. Immediately afterwards, Henan Zhoukou Wudeli directly dropped the purchase price of 1.26 yuan in the early stage, and the purchase price was 1.252 yuan.
There are still about 15 days before the official harvest in Henan, and the price will start to fall now. Or does it fall to the traders? What kind of routine did it end up with?
The direct reason is that because the local wheat performed very well during the flowering period, if the weather does not come to "be a demon", the expected output will reach more than 1,400 catties, which is why the noodle enterprises in Zhoukou area are so crazy about the price.
However, your expectations are only your expectations, can expectations come true?
Hello friends, today is May 13, 2024, as the price of corn in North China has stopped falling and stabilized, the magnitude and frequency of flour enterprises have begun to decrease greatly, but the overall trend is still downward.
Therefore, in the short term, Chen Mai is still in a "precarious" situation. If you want a 180-degree shift in wheat, the main focus is corn, and the second concern is the weather.
1. Looking at corn alone, now corn has fallen to the freezing point, even if there is room to go down in the short term, but the amplitude is not large, so the future time is the time to rise.
2. The weather system is unpredictable, whether you have many years of experience or the so-called experts, you can't predict 100% accurately, which is why it is called weather forecast.
According to the latest information, 2024 is likely to be an even hotter year, with extreme heat likely to become more frequent and intense. Zhou Bing, chief expert of climate services at the National Climate Center, pointed out that due to the impact of El Niño, extreme weather will be more pronounced in 2024.
It is expected that the temperature in most parts of the mainland will be high in 2024, and the number of high temperature days in North China, South China and southern Jiangnan will be more, and the impact of persistent high temperature will be heavier, and the impact of high temperature from South China to Jiangnan will be heavier than in 2023.
Will this weather affect the next wheat? Or corn? It's still unknown.
The National Climate Center has released the latest climate trend projections
There were 3 significant precipitation weather processes from 20 May to 4 June 2024:
1. From May 20 to 23, there were moderate to heavy rains in the northwest and eastern parts of Northeast China, southern Jiangnan, and western South China, heavy to heavy rain in eastern South China, moderate to heavy rain in most parts of Southwest China and southern Northwest China, and heavy to heavy rain in southern Tibet;
2. From May 25 to 26, there was moderate to heavy rain in the eastern part of Northeast China, Jiangnan, South China, and Southwest China;
3. From May 31 to June 2, there was moderate to heavy rain in Northeast China, northern North China, Southeast China, South Central China, central and eastern South China, most of Southwest China, and southern Northwest China, and heavy to heavy rain in South and Southwest China.
If this trend prediction is accurate, it is the farmers who will be hurt, but it also gives the market a node for speculation. In fact, this market is very contradictory, if it is a bumper harvest, although the price of grain is low, but a bumper harvest has been achieved. If it is a year of reduced production, although grain prices will rise, farmers will lose even more.
It was at this point in time that the big brother behind the scene issued an important meeting: the full implementation of the three major grain crops full cost insurance and planting income insurance policies
The scope of insurance has been expanded from large grain-producing counties to the whole country, which is conducive to further stabilizing the income of grain farmers and improving agricultural disaster prevention, mitigation and relief capabilities. It is necessary to strengthen departmental coordination, timely and full allocation of premium subsidies, strengthen fund supervision, and prevent arrears, interception, and misappropriation of subsidies. Guide underwriting institutions to optimize insurance design and claims services to ensure that claims can be settled quickly and fully compensated once the insurance occurs.
It can be seen that great importance is attached to the three major food crops. On the one hand, it is reflected in the unknown weather, and on the other hand, it is reflected in stable income, which is not only related to people's livelihood, but also related to a higher level, you know. (Personal opinion, for reference only, does not represent correct, all nonsense)
The latest wheat price market in the country on May 13, 2024
Hebei Shenzhou Wudeli: 1.285 yuan, down 5%.
Hebei Baixiang is good: 1.285 yuan, down 5 percent.
Hebei Jinshahe Shahe Company: 1.27 yuan, down 5 cents.
Hebei Jinsha Henan and Company: 1.27 yuan, down 5%.
Shandong Heze Huarui: 1.285 yuan, down 5%.
Shandong Zaozhuang Yinniu Noodle Industry: Pumai Class A 1.31 Yuan, Class B 1.305 Yuan, Class C benchmark price 1.3 yuan, Class E 1.285 yuan, Class D 1.25 yuan, Class S 1.215 yuan. Up 1 point.
Shaanxi Weinan Wudeli: 1.33 yuan, down 5 percent.
Henan Kaifeng Yihai: 1.28 yuan, down 5 percent.
Henan Suiping Jinmailang: 1.27 yuan, down 5 centimeters.
Henan Suiping Wudeli: 24 years of new white wheat, new red wheat 1.255 yuan, down 5%.