Recently, the United States has reappeared in a contradictory posture. On the one hand, the Biden administration has made ambitious climate reduction commitments in order to compete for the hegemony of global green governance. On the other hand, in order to promote the return of the U.S. manufacturing industry, it has curbed and suppressed China's green industry under the guise of "overcapacity". The essence of "both wants and wants" behind it is undoubtedly exposed.
On the 8th and 9th local time, China's special envoy for climate change Liu Zhenmin and the US President's senior adviser on international climate policy, Podesta, held formal talks in Washington. According to the official website of China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment on the 11th, China and the United States shared their respective experiences and challenges in climate policies and actions, aiming to effectively respond to the climate crisis and its impacts. It can be seen that both sides are interested in cooperating in the gradual reduction of coal consumption and the promotion of the deployment of renewable energy.
Podesta, Senior Advisor to the President of the United States on International Climate Policy
Straight News noted that while talking about addressing global climate change, the US side brought private goods and raised the issue of "overcapacity". A senior U.S. State Department official said on the 10th that the United States and China discussed the issue of "overcapacity" in China's solar and battery manufacturing, steel production and coal power generation in a two-day bilateral meeting on climate change.
Sure enough, the day after the meeting between the Chinese and US climate envoys, the Biden administration quickly "changed face" and announced tariffs on China's new energy "troika". On the 10th, Bloomberg, the Associated Press and the Wall Street Journal and other U.S. media successively quoted news that the Biden administration announced additional tariffs on China as soon as next week, involving key areas such as electric vehicles, batteries and photovoltaics, among which the tariffs imposed on Chinese electric vehicles will rise to 100%.
In fact, the demand for new energy industries in the United States is very strong. According to statistics from the Photovoltaic Industry Association (SEIA), the cumulative installed PV capacity in the United States will reach 162GW in 2023, an increase of 13.5% compared to 2022. In addition, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2024 and 2025, solar energy will become the main source of incremental power generation in the United States as photovoltaic power generation grows, and the proportion of power generation from traditional energy sources will decline. The share of solar power in the U.S. is expected to increase from 4% in 2023 to 6% in 2024 and 7% in 2025; The share of coal-fired power generation will fall by 9% in 2024.
The figure shows the cumulative installed PV capacity in the United States (unit: GW)
With the continuous innovation and iteration of photovoltaic technology and the improvement of the industrial chain, China's photovoltaic industry has reduced the cost of electricity generation by more than 80% in the past 10 years, and has an unshakable efficiency and cost advantage in the global market. According to 2023 data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), China's share of all stages of manufacturing of solar panels (such as polysilicon, ingots, wafers, cells, and modules) is more than 80%, and solar PV exports exceeded $30 billion in 2021.
However, the United States is going against the trend of globalization and trying to divert the PV supply chain to the mainland. The Biden administration has not only continued the previous administration's 201 tariffs and Section 301 tariffs, but also continuously imposed tariffs and anti-circumvention investigations on photovoltaic products. In addition to this, the Biden administration has also proposed incentives for PV development. In August 2022, the United States passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of up to $369 billion, which provides subsidies for both the demand and supply sides of PV.
In March 2023, in order to hedge against the huge subsidies in the United States, the European Union successively introduced the draft of the "Net Zero Industry Act" and the "Critical Materials Act".
However, some analysts pointed out that if the photovoltaic industry is forcibly transferred to the United States and Europe, it will lead to further global climate conditions. Xu Shengnian, a researcher at the World Resources Institute's (WRI) China Sustainable Investment Department, said that the shift of PV supply chains to the US and Europe would make it more difficult to achieve the global 1.5-degree goal. According to rough estimates by the World Resources Institute, meeting the International Energy Agency's (IEA) 2050 global net-zero targets would have to be extended by 6.3 years and 11.3 years, respectively, if PV products needed outside China are only produced in the US or Europe. WRI is continuing to conduct further detailed research.
Ironically, since Biden took office, he has worked hard to portray the United States as the "hero" who saved the world from the climate crisis. Such efforts aim to fill the void left by the Trump administration's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and to reinvent US discourse hegemony in global climate governance. At the Global Leaders' Summit on Climate Change in April 2021, Biden announced U.S. climate goals to reduce carbon emissions by 50% to 52% by 2030 (at 2005 levels) and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. However, the current situation shows that Biden's approach is running counter to global green governance goals.
In June 2022, Biden convened a meeting of leaders of the Energy and Climate Forum of major economies to galvanize stronger energy security, improve global food security, and address the climate crisis.
Author丨Li Changchun, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".