Today's article is another time for us to examine past inferences and judge the global situation even further.
1 U.S. presidency of the European Union?
According to media reports, French President Emmanuel Macron intends to unite the leaders of a number of European countries to remove European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Macron publicly criticized von der Leyen in Brussels last month: "The responsibility of the President of the European Commission is to defend the interests of the whole, not to be overly politicized ..."
Macron's criticism of this, and of criticism of von der Leyen on the "turf" of the EU, is not on a whim, but strongly targeted.
The President of the European Commission will be re-elected in two months for a five-year term.
And the popular candidate for the next president is said to be former ECB President Mario Draghi. Draghi is on the shortlist because he said during his tenure as president of the European Central Bank that he would protect the euro "at all costs". This is in line with Macron's condition of defending the interests of the European Union.
Obviously, Macron does not think. Von der Leyen's approach during his five-year tenure was to defend the overall interests of the European Union, and he tended to be more politicized, representing the interests of the United States, and intervening too much in the great power competition between the United States and China. As a result, von der Leyen's performance in trade negotiations and the EU's climate transition has failed to uphold Europe's interests.
However, the statement of von der Leyen's office is that it is not yet certain whether Macron really wants to replace von der Leyen, or maybe he just wants to put pressure on von der Leyen.
Is von der Leyen's office credible? This statement is really just trying to downplay the matter, and von der Leyen is still actively preparing for the presidential re-election in two months' time.
Looking at von der Leyen's performance in recent years, it can almost be said that the United States is the representative of the United States to the European Union, especially after Biden became president of the United States more than 3 years ago, von der Leyen has always cooperated with the Biden administration's policies and vigorously promoted the decoupling of the EU and China's economy. After the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, she always launched the idea of aggressive sanctions against Russia.
2 Will Europe become a pole among the great powers?
With this incident out of the way, let's move on.
In the past two years, almost all views on Europe have been that the EU is controlled by the United States and is destined to be unable to turn over. As French President Emmanuel Macron put it: the EU is not a vassal of the United States.
Judging from the performance of the EU in the past three years, Macron is not wrong, the EU is indeed a vassal of the United States, dancing with the magic wand of the United States, without its own claims.
The reason why Macron said this is precisely because he refuses to be a vassal of the United States and does not want the European Union to become a vassal of the United States.
However, in fact, in the eyes of the outside world in recent years, the EU has been a vassal of the United States, dancing with the magic wand of the United States. Therefore, the outside world always looks down on the European Union, believing that the European Union will inevitably disintegrate and dissolve, and the euro is only a vassal currency or derivative currency of the US dollar.
However, I see it a little differently. In 2019, I made some judgments and inferences about the future situation in Europe on the show:
First, after Brexit, there will be no more countries within the EU to leave the EU.
This sentence can be counted for 10 years from the 2016 Brexit referendum passed. If no country leaves the EU within 10 years, this prediction will be validated. Because since 2016, there have been people who have been singing about the EU, believing that the EU will eventually disintegrate. And it is believed that even France and Germany, the two major EU countries, will leave the EU.
Second, the harmonious relationship between Europe (except the United Kingdom) and the United States will eventually be broken. Europe will move towards independence, get rid of the control of the United States, and throw off the following trend of the United States.
Third, when Europe moves toward independence, Europe will become a pole among the world's great powers.
These three arguments are layered on top of each other. We have made some arguments before, and we will continue to do so in the future. As it stands, Europe is economically and financially integrated, and although it is still fragile and has some weaknesses, at least the framework is in place.
Once you have the framework, all that's left is the question of how to reinforce it. There are some trajectories and patterns for how a country or alliance with a strong base can be strengthened and taken a step forward. In this regard, please refer to our "The Great Power Pattern in the Post-American Era, Europe (Part II)".
3 A chance for a European awakening?
Two weeks before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, Yang Feng made a prediction that if the tension in Ukraine persists for a long time, China will be the one who benefits, while the benefits that the United States has gained in the early stage will slowly spit out.
The main reason is that one of the purposes of the United States in the Ukraine conflict is to tie up Europe, or even harvest Europe, and Europe's interests will be seriously damaged.
When Europe's interests are seriously damaged and continue to do so for a period of time, European countries will inevitably try to break free from the control of the United States to some extent. This will lead to a serious divergence of interests between the United States and Europe.
As the saying goes, if people are not for themselves, heaven and earth will be destroyed. Although this sentence is a bit exaggerated, it fully reflects the interests between countries. On the premise that each country is for its own interests, if you still dare not do it for your own interests, you will either be deceived or your strength will be insufficient and coerced.
So later we said that the reason why Europe has not been able to wake up is because it has not suffered enough.
I said this before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has led to the damage to the interests of European countries. We can understand this, but can't European countries understand it?
European countries, of course, understand that they are only coerced because they have been deceived or because they are not strong enough. It's a last resort!
It is not enough for European countries to suffer, this was said two years ago. But even if we know that we have suffered a loss, will we be able to wake up and try to get rid of the control of the United States?
At this time, it is necessary to take medicine, and the power of checks and balances needs to appear in the external environment. And now is the time.
At the beginning of this year, we launched a view that 2024 will be a year of reversal of the situation between China and the United States. Therefore, we put forward another point of view as a reminder of "Make it clear! Who is losing and retreating in the game between China and the United States?" The purpose is to remind some people to keep their eyes open and see the current situation clearly.
This means that the United States has been fighting and playing games with China for six years, but China is still standing. Thus forming a powerful counterweight to the United States.
And the United States still can't get hold of Russia on the battlefield in Ukraine, which has formed a restraining force against the United States.
Taken together, China and Russia have formed a powerful restraining force against the United States in the external environment, and this has given European countries the opportunity to dare to go their own way.
At this time, some EU organizations are particularly important. It just so happens that the European Parliament will be re-elected in June, and the president of the European Commission will be re-elected, which is just the right time for the EU to get rid of the influence of the United States. France and Germany, the two largest countries in Europe, naturally strive to have a candidate in this position who "fits" the interests of the EU.
To put it more clearly, if France and Germany fail to support and install in this position, it will be a big setback, and we will have to wait another five years.
The same is true for the United States, which does not want von der Leyen to lose this election. This time is an imperative for both sides, and there is no room for mistakes.
4 What is missing from European integration?
We also said earlier that it will take a long time for Europe to rise in the pattern of great powers.
Consider the historical process of the formation of the European Union. The history of the European Union can be traced back to the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1952, when there were only six member states.
In 1958, the European Economic Community and the European Atomic Energy Community were established. After the entry into force of the Treaty of Maastricht in 1993, it was transformed into the European Union,
It then gradually transformed from a trading entity into an economic and political union.
In this way, it took a total of 41 years for the EU to take shape to develop into the EU it is today.
On January 1, 1999, the Eurozone was officially established, which is the single monetary system of Europe, and Europe entered into financial and monetary integration, although some countries such as Sweden, Denmark, and the United Kingdom, which later withdrew, did not join the euro system.
So what is lacking in Europe's integration?
Europe has been integrated in trade, economically, politically and financially, and what is lacking now is a unified military system. That is, what Macron called the creation of a European army.
After so many years of hard work and integration, Europe has come to the point where it is today, and it will not give up or disintegrate easily.
5 The biggest obstacle to European integration is:
In fact, the biggest obstacle to European integration is the United States, which is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) established by the United States.
Although NATO is a common defense system. But there are many layers to the substance. Through NATO's common defense system and the G7, the United States has penetrated deep into the political, economic, and financial levels of European countries and firmly controlled European countries.
It is undeniable that the United States has made a very powerful move, relying on the two major organizations of NATO and the G7 to influence and push the EU at critical moments to move towards the scope set by the United States.
In this regard, we can see from the conflict in Ukraine that broke out in 2022 that the United States has used the influence of these two major organizations in European countries, which is a very powerful move that is reflected in the military, political, economic and financial aspects at the same time.
Therefore, the final step in European integration is to get rid of American influence. In order to get rid of the influence of the United States, it is necessary to be independent in military defense. This was the last step of European integration after the creation of the European Union in 1993 and the eurozone in 1999, and it was also the biggest obstacle to overcome.
If Europe passes this hurdle, it will be a sea and a sky!
What if you can't pass it? Or what if it's not easy to pass?
As mentioned earlier, if the EU wants to move towards independence, it still needs two kinds of medicine, one is that it needs to suffer more losses before it can deeply understand and wake up. The second medicine is the help of the external environment, when the external environment can restrain the hegemonic power of the United States, Europe has the opportunity and ability to find its own way.
The conflict in Ukraine, which has lasted for more than two years, has caused European countries to suffer a lot, and this aspect is close to being satisfied. However, the United States has been playing a fierce game with China for six years, but it has not been able to defeat China, and China has become the biggest strategic competitor of the United States (according to the United States).
These two herbs are almost satisfied today. So, there is this time led by French President Emmanuel Macron. wants to pull down von der Leyen, who is obedient to the United States.
6 Conclusion
Today, there is an opportunity to verify what we said two years ago that the conflict in Ukraine would spur a European awakening.
In today's world situation, there is the conflict in Ukraine, the conflict between Palestine and Israel in the Middle East, and the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait are turbulent. The geopolitical conflicts in all three places involve the United States, or are orchestrated in them.
However, a fire is being lit on the land of Europe, burning against the control of Europe by the United States. It can be said that these are four fires burning at the same time. How will the Biden administration respond?
2024 is a year in which the game situation between China and the United States will be reversed, which means that the foundation of US hegemony in the world will gradually shake from now on.
Finally, I would like to mention to you that this means that when China faces strategic suppression by the United States, China will no longer be alone. In addition to the well-known Sino-Russian cooperation, China, Russia, Iran, the SCO, BRICS, Southeast Asian countries, RCEP, etc., the European allies of the United States will also be loosened.
One of the biggest controversies in the past three years is that the United States will unite with Europe to deal with China, and this is a joint struggle between the United States and Europe to deal with China. The biggest selling point of this argument is that the combined economic output of the United States and Europe is twice that of China, and it is inevitable that China will be defeated.
However, according to what we say today, the integration of the United States and Europe will be difficult. This will continue to develop, and more and more neutral countries will emerge in the future, and the alliance between the United States and its allies will gradually loosen.
So, is this what the Analects say: "Virtue is not alone, there must be neighbors"? We will follow up and analyze it in the future.
That's all for today's analysis and reasoning, we'll see you next time!
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