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Sources: All statements in this article are based on sources believed to be reliable
Preface
The yen's exchange rate against the US dollar has fallen below 160:1! In the face of this situation, will the Japanese government intervene in the market?
A country's economy is like the lifeblood of a country, will Japan choose to wage war with the outside world in order to save the country's economic crisis?
The yen continues to fall
The fact that the yen exchange rate has been falling for some time has attracted the attention of people from all walks of life, and everyone is discussing how much the yen will depreciate.
In the Tokyo foreign exchange market on April 26, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar fell below 156:1.
On the same day, according to the "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" report, in the New York foreign exchange market, the yen continued to accelerate its depreciation, falling directly to 158:1.
The yen exchange rate continued to fall for a day, and everyone paid special attention to it, and on the 29th, the yen exchange rate fluctuated sharply.
Unexpectedly, on the 29th, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar fell directly below 160:1, once again hitting the lowest level in 34 years since 1990.
Then the yen rebounded, peaking at 154.52.
Some professionals speculate that this is the result of the Japanese government's intervention, but the Japanese government has no comment on this issue.
As we all know, the economy is the lifeblood of a country, and the impact of the sharp fluctuations of the yen on the national economy is very far-reaching and the negative impact is even greater.
Overseas Network2024-04-30"The Japanese Finance Officer Twice Refused to Discuss Whether the Government Interfered in the Foreign Exchange Market due to Sharp Fluctuations in the Yen Exchange Rate"
At the beginning of this year, the yen exchange rate remained at around 140, but now that April has not ended, the yen has depreciated so much.
Unexpectedly, in the face of such a situation, the Japanese government would choose to maintain the current monetary status quo and continue to maintain short-term interest rates between 0-0.1%.
In addition, the Japanese government's plan to buy bonds has not changed, and they have stated that they will continue to buy bonds as planned.
Many people think that Japan's decision is too cautious and conservative, but Japan also has its own considerations.
The state of Japan's economy
The depreciation of the yen is beneficial and harmful, and it can indeed drive consumption in Japan to a certain extent, and a large number of tourists have gone to Japan for a shopping spree after the depreciation of the Japanese currency.
The prices of all kinds of expensive luxury goods and medicines in Japan have dropped a lot, and Japan has indeed received a lot of benefits in this regard, and Japan's inflation has also been raised.
But for the local residents of Japan, their assets have shrunk a lot, and no one wants to spend them.
According to Japanese residents, as the purchasing power of the yen has shrunk severely, their travel plans will also change, and they have to travel to developed countries with high consumption, but now they can only travel to developing countries with relatively low consumption.
There are even some people who choose to bring their own dry food to reduce their consumption spending.
National Business Daily2024-04-28"Witness History!Yen Depreciation, Refresh 34-Year Low, Luxury Goods Sold Out! Japanese People Go Abroad, Eat One Less Meal a Day to Save Money
And for most Japanese companies, they are highly dependent on materials overseas, and the depreciation of the currency means that their input costs will be greater and their economic performance will be worse.
Some Japanese companies are also going out of business due to currency depreciation.
But for some export-oriented companies, currency depreciation makes it easy for them to make a profit, giving them more profits.
In addition, the depreciation of the yen has also attracted a lot of foreign capital to invest in Japanese companies.
For example, the American company Oracle announced on April 17 that they will provide $8 billion of investment in Japan's artificial intelligence, cloud computing and other fields starting this year.
Jiemian News2024-04-18"Oracle Announces Over $8 Billion Investment in Japan for Cloud Computing and Artificial Intelligence in 10 Years"
The president of Microsoft also said that they will provide $2.9 billion in investment in Japan's artificial intelligence and other fields in the next two years.
However, for the Japanese government, the negative effect of currency depreciation is the biggest on the whole.
China Economic Net2024-04-11 "Japanese media: Microsoft announced $2.9 billion investment in Japan in the next two years"
Will Japan choose a foreign war?
The financial manipulation of the United States has led to the current economic turmoil in Japan and a serious currency crisis.
The negative effects of the depreciation of the yen are very obvious, and Japan is a very resource-poor country, and most of the raw materials need to be imported.
However, with the rise in the price of imported goods in Japan and the instability of the prices of food and gasoline that have been stable in Japan, Japan's trade balance will be further disrupted.
The interest rate differential between the yen and the dollar is gradually widening, which will intensify the sell-off of the yen by investors in favor of the dollar, which is gaining momentum.
The Japanese government is also burdened with huge debts, and it is understood that Japan's total debt in 2023 has reached 1286.45 trillion yen.
In this case, Japan does not dare to raise interest rates at all, otherwise it will face greater fiscal pressure.
North Evening Online2024-04-30 "The yen is "unlimited", why does the Japanese government intervene "limited"?
The automotive industry, which Japan relies on the most, is now also facing the severe impact of China's new energy vehicles, and from all aspects, Japan's current situation is not optimistic.
Will such a huge financial crisis lead to a war with the outside world?
Judging from the previous history, when Japan has an economic crisis, the country will always be the first to think about starting a war with a foreign country, so as to divert its own hidden dangers.
And the United States has been eyeing China, and this time the U.S. financial decision has led to currency shocks in many countries, including Japan.
But the impact on China has been minimal, which is why the United States wants to pull China into the water, first Yellen's visit to China, and then Blinken's visit to China.
China doesn't seem to be very safe in it, but in fact, under the influence of all parties, China's industrial situation is still good.
In the first quarter of this year, Chery exports increased by 40.9 percent year-on-year, while Geely grew by 66 percent.
National Business Daily2024-04-03"The export volume of some car companies increased by more than 40% in the first quarter! China's auto exports still maintain medium-high speed growth, experts: new energy vehicles are still the main driving force"
In addition, other industries are also developing steadily, and China's current situation is enough to deal with many crises, even if the United States has been raising interest rates, we have corresponding measures to resist.
Even if Japan really wanted to start a war and threaten China, they would have to pay a terrible price.
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Wonderful recommendations in the past
The United States harvested Japan, and easily harvested China's Jingri and Runri, and the yen fell below 155!
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