Gold ushered in another wave of "highlight" moments, on May 20, spot gold prices once hit a high of $2449.88 per ounce during the day, surpassing the intraday record high set in April. With the rise in gold prices, the prices of major domestic gold jewelry brands also continued to rise, once exceeding 742 yuan/gram. The combination of factors such as increased volatility in the global economy, persistent geopolitical risks, and increased demand for safe-haven assets collectively drove gold prices higher. The price of gold has taken off again, can it still get on the bus now?
Spot gold hit another all-time high
Spot gold has once again broken through all-time highs. On May 20, spot gold ushered in a wave of rise, once touched $2449.88 / ounce intraday, a new record high, as of press time, spot gold reported $2433.74 / ounce, up 0.8% on the day.
Looking back at the trend of gold prices this year, since the beginning of March, gold has entered a long upward cycle, all the way from the $2,100 mark to the $2,200 mark. On March 6, spot gold and COMEX gold reached $2,152.11 per ounce and $2,160.7 per ounce intraday, surpassing the record of the international gold price set in December last year for the first time. Just two trading days later, on March 8, spot gold broke through its all-time high again, and was just a stone's throw away from $2,200 an ounce. Since then, although the gold price has undergone a short-term consolidation, in late March, the gold price once again refreshed the all-time record to $2236.05 per ounce.
Image source: Yitu.com
Entering the second quarter, the international gold price continued the "strong" market in March. In early April, when the rally was at its most ferocious, the price of gold was "witnessing history every day". Until April 19, after the spot gold price hit $2,419 per ounce intraday, there was a wave of adjustment in the gold price trend, once falling below the $2,300 mark, but it was followed by another round of steady rise. Since May, gold prices have been in a volatile upward range until a new high on May 20.
In this round of gold bull market, such a scenario is not uncommon, there are many factors that push gold prices higher, and there is uncertainty about the stability of the global economy, which makes investors pay more attention to safe-haven assets, and the price of gold as a safe-haven asset will naturally rise; Geopolitical risks, such as those in the Middle East, remain, and these factors will cause investors to seek safe-haven assets, which in turn will drive gold prices higher.
Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, said that the recent gold price trend exceeded expectations and continued to refresh record highs, which is generally accepted for reasons related to the market's bets on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the continuation of geopolitical conflicts.
Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance, said that the volatility of the global economy has increased, and investors' demand for safe-haven assets has increased, and gold, as a safe-haven asset, has been favored by investors. Secondly, the uncertainty of geopolitical risks also contributed to the rise in gold prices. Finally, some institutions have also played a role in the long-term bullishness of gold.
The gold price of pure gold jewelry exceeded 742 yuan
Affected by the continuous rise in international gold prices, the prices of major domestic gold jewellery brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao Gold also continued to rise.
According to the official websites of major gold brands, the selling price of Chow Sang Sheng's pure gold jewelry (per gram) is 742 yuan, the retail guide price of Fuzu Gold 999 on Saturday is 743 yuan/gram, the price of Chow Tai Fook pure gold (jewelry, handicrafts) is 743 yuan/gram, and the gold price in Shanghai shows that the price of gold jewelry in Laomiao is 746 yuan/gram.
However, an investigation by a reporter from Beijing Business Daily found that coinciding with "520", many gold stores launched preferential activities. Zhou Dasheng, the manager of a store in Fengtai, Beijing, told a reporter from Beijing Business Daily, "Today's '520', jewelry gold has a reduction of 100 yuan per gram activity, and the reduced gold price is 608 yuan / gram, this price is only the price of jewelry gold, each product has a single labor fee, different styles of labor cost prices are different, the range is about 35-135 yuan / gram."
"Because it is the gold price after the event, it is more appropriate to buy jewelry gold products in our store, if you want to buy gold for investment, it is recommended to wait, the current gold price is relatively high", said the manager of the store.
"At present, the store has not adjusted the price, and the gold price on May 19 is the same, which is 739 yuan / gram," said the sales staff of a store in Chaoyang, Beijing, Chow Tai Fook, "At present, the store's activities are 20 yuan per gram for buying a single piece of gold below 20 grams, and 30 yuan per gram for buying a single piece of gold with a weight of more than 20 grams." ”
Compared with jewelry gold, the investment attributes of gold bars are concerned by consumers, the price of investment gold bars in different gold stores is different, mostly 660 yuan / gram, bank gold bars usually have different weights and purities, the more common investment gold bar weights include 1 gram, 5 grams, 10 grams, 20 grams, 50 grams, 100 grams, 500 grams and 1 kilogram, and the purity is 99.99%. On May 20, the value of the gold T+D market was 574.11 yuan/gram, and the price of bank gold bars was around 580-595 yuan/gram.
Taking a joint-stock bank investment gold bars as an example, the bank has a total of 10-1000 grams of investment gold bars to choose from, and the price of each gram of gold bars is 591.34 yuan. "Gold investment is more suitable for investors with long-term holding plans, and it is recommended to reasonably plan the investment amount according to their own financial situation, and choose the appropriate weight of gold bars for investment." The above bank relationship manager advises.
Short-term high conciliation potential
Considering that the U.S. economy is experiencing a phased slowdown, and the market is expected to implement the upcoming interest rate cut policy, in this context, a number of institutions predict that investors' interest and confidence in gold will increase, which is likely to attract more buyers to enter the market, further continue and consolidate the upward trajectory of gold, and the "bull market" market may continue.
However, some analysts pointed out that "gold is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the short term", Zhou Maohua said, mainly because the geopolitical outlook is not clear enough, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, and global central bank gold purchases still have some support for gold in the short term. However, whether gold prices can further challenge record highs requires stimulus from the Federal Reserve's larger-than-expected interest rate cuts or the escalation of geopolitical conflicts.
For investors, Bai Wenxi emphasized that for gold jewelry, due to its high added value, especially in terms of design, branding, etc., it is suitable to be purchased as a consumer product or gift. For investment gold bars, especially those with higher purity, their prices are more correlated with the spot price of gold, making it a better investment choice. However, investors also need to pay attention to market risks and allocate assets reasonably. If you want to invest in gold more accurately, you can pay attention to more market-oriented investment products such as gold ETFs.
"The value of gold as a safe-haven asset will be further reflected in the future environment of economic volatility and geopolitical risks. Investors can reasonably allocate gold and related products according to their own risk tolerance and investment objectives. Bai Wenxi said.
In order to avoid potential risks, the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued an announcement on May 20 that there are many uncertainties affecting the operation of the market in the near future, market risks have increased significantly, and price fluctuations have increased significantly. All member units are requested to improve their awareness of risk prevention, make detailed risk emergency plans, and remind investors to do a good job in risk prevention, reasonably control positions, and invest rationally.
At the same time, the Shanghai Gold Exchange announced that from the closing of liquidation on May 21, the margin ratio of Au (T+D), mAu (T+D), Au (T+N1), Au (T+N2), NYAuTN06, NYAuTN12 and other contracts will be adjusted from 9% to 10%, and the limit of the rise and fall will be adjusted from 8% to 9% on the next trading day; The margin ratio of Ag (T+D) contracts will be adjusted from 12% to 13%, and the limit of the price increase and decrease will be adjusted from 11% to 12% on the next trading day.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Song Yitong