If Duert openly admitted in an interview with Chinese media that there was a secret agreement with China and stabbed the current Philippine government's anti-China policy in the back, then the Marcos Jr. administration's public announcement of tearing up the "gentlemen's agreement" between China and the Philippines is considered a sign that the Philippines has begun to fight back. In the past few days, the Marcos Jr. administration's two-pronged strategy of China strategy has been clear: on the one hand, it has launched an unprecedented joint military exercise with the United States, and on the other hand, it has launched a liquidation of Duterte, a political opponent at home.
Marcos Jr. just announced a few days ago that once a Philippine soldier dies in the course of the Sino-Philippine confrontation, he will invoke the "US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty" to demand that the US military go down, which is almost threatening China with the US military. Immediately afterward, the United States dispatched 11,000 U.S. troops to join 5,000 Philippine troops in the South China Sea in the largest and most influential "shoulder to shoulder" war games in history. What is even more exaggerated is that the status of this exercise also includes the "nine-dash line" area of China's main line, that is, the shooting and artillery outside the territorial waters of the Philippines. If this is not excessive, then the United States and the Philippines have extended the scope of the "Balikatan" exercise to areas closer to Taiwan, China, which is even worse in nature. At Lallo Airport in northern Cagayan province, the two sides will simulate the protection of the northernmost island of the Philippines in the event of Chinese mainland's military unification of Taiwan.
The Pentagon has deployed as many as 11,000 troops this year, marking a "new normal" for its security cooperation with the Philippines. The US military has even historically deployed the "Typhon" land-based medium-range missile system in the Philippines, and has to launch Seahorse rocket launchers with live ammunition. For the first time in history, the Philippine military has deployed anti-ship missiles with a range of 144.8 kilometers imported from South Korea. The U.S.-Philippines exercise included live-fire training, urban warfare, aviation operations, counterterrorism, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, as well as the all-critical island defense and amphibious operations to simulate a potential conflict with China. This year's list of observer states is larger and more diverse than last year's, with both neighbouring and allied countries, while Australia and Japan will participate in the exercise as observers.
And in the Philippines, Marcos Jr. still has another battle, that is, against Duter's righteous words. Duterte not only publicly criticized the Philippines' current confrontation policy with China, but even directly disclosed the secret Sino-Philippine agreement, which put Marcos Jr. in an embarrassing position as a provocateur. With the support of the United States, the government of Masco Jr. is investigating the "secret agreement" between China and Lao Du about Ren'ai Jiao, and intends to put it in the position of a "traitor". The Philippine government is exploring potential criminal charges against former officials for harming national interests in the Duterte administration's negotiations with China.
"For me, it's clear that the Duterte administration is hiding something — they had a discussion about keeping the people secret, and that's the first one," Marcos Jr. claimed, adding that there were concerns about potential treason under the former president. Marcos' political allies are preparing to hold hearings to launch a multi-pronged counterattack against Duterte's faction. This raises a question: China does not put the dispute with the Philippines in an important position, and the Masco Jr. government seems to be going further and further in its rationale for confronting China? Although there are reasons for the strategic competition with China supported by the United States, we cannot line up for Marcos Jr. is using the contradictions with China to divert the dissatisfaction caused by his domestic social and political failures. The Filipino public's trust in Marcos Jr.'s governance has dropped by 16 percent since he took office, and the support rate of the poor has dropped by 20 percentage points compared with three months ago. The drug problem and poverty in the Philippines are fermenting, and Marcos Jr. is using the contradictions with China to deflect the crisis. Therefore, the current crisis between China and the Philippines does not stem from Marcos Jr.'s naivety, but he is taking the initiative to use the confrontation between China and the Philippines, all of which determines that it is difficult to avoid more intense conflicts between China and the Philippines, and we must be prepared for a showdown.