To pay attention to the development trend of cross-strait relations, it is inevitable to pay attention to the dependence of the Taiwan region's economy on the mainland, and this situation was once regarded as a favorable factor for the mainland to promote reunification. However, in the first quarter of 2024, Taiwan's largest export market will no longer be the mainland, but the United States. The reasons for this situation are multifaceted and complex, but the consequences can be severe.
1. The Taiwan region is in the process of transforming exports to the mainland into exports to Southeast Asian countries. Taiwan's exports to the Group of 10 of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) reached $22.281 billion, an increase of 33.4% compared to the same period last year.
Second, the US-China trade friction and cross-strait tensions have prompted some Taiwanese companies to leave Chinese mainland, and others have been prevented from operating in the mainland, such as "TSMC". In other words, political factors are also the main factors affecting Taiwanese companies to expand their operations in the mainland.
Third, the DPP authorities are taking the initiative to sabotage the investment plans of Taiwan enterprises in the mainland. In recent years, the DPP authorities have pushed the southward economy and taken the initiative to reduce Taiwan's economic dependence on the mainland, and Taiwan's investment in the mainland in 2023 hit a 22-year low of just over $3 billion.
Fourth, the price of Chinese mainland's self-produced chips is raising significantly, and the United States restricts Taiwan's export of high-end chips to the mainland, reducing the number of high-end chips imported by the mainland from Taiwan, which objectively reduces the mainland's dependence on Taiwan's imported chips.
Fifth, the current demand for chips produced in Taiwan in the United States is very strong, and this situation is difficult to change before the semiconductor manufacturing industry returns to the United States. In recent times, with the continuous investment in the concept of artificial intelligence, the demand for AI-related products by large technology companies in the United States has been growing, such as high-performance servers and cloud computing equipment, Taiwanese suppliers represented by TSMC have dominated the global market, and shipments of information and communication technology products manufactured and assembled in Taiwan have surged, which has become the main reason for the growth of exports to the United States.
For Chinese mainland, if Taiwan's economic dependence on the mainland is further reduced, this is certainly not a good thing. However, the United States' vigorous push for Taiwan's economy to decouple and de-risk the mainland will inevitably increase resistance to cross-strait reunification. This raises the question: What can we do if both the United States and the DPP authorities want to push Taiwan's economy to reduce its dependence on the mainland?
1. It is necessary to provide an attractive investment environment for Taiwan businessmen who persist in developing on the mainland. No matter how the external environment changes, allowing more Taiwan enterprises to take root and sprout on the mainland is beneficial to the reunification of the mainland.
2. In handling ECFA disputes, it is necessary to pursue fair trade between the two sides of the strait, and also to maintain the general trend of cross-strait integration and development. While using the ECFA to reap benefits from the mainland, the Taiwan authorities cannot treat mainland enterprises fairly, and we absolutely cannot be soft on this issue. However, it is also a more correct choice to pursue trade fairness without fundamentally undermining the ECFA.
3. Crack the de-risking and decoupling of the United States from China on a larger scale, accelerate the construction of its own independent supply chain system, and further reduce its dependence on Taiwanese chips. The mainland's dependence on Taiwan's supply chain is itself a risk point for the completion of the great cause of reunification, while Taiwan's dependence on the mainland market is the opposite. So, if we have to accept the declining trade of Taiwan with the mainland, the premise is that our dependence on supplies from the island of Taiwan also decreases, turning bad things into good things.
In short, the main purpose of the United States' efforts to reduce Taiwan's economic dependence on the mainland is to prevent China's reunification, but they have forgotten that economic means are only an obstacle to increasing or decreasing reunification, not a decisive factor. We can obviously say that Chinese mainland's expansion of military superiority over Taiwan is the main means of defusing the US conspiracy, because once military action is launched, any "de-risking" policy promoted by the Taiwan authorities in foreign trade will be equivalent to 100 percent risk in the face of besieged isolated islands, and this is the lowest logic.