The "shoulder-to-shoulder" joint military exercise between the United States and the Philippines coincided with another military exercise, "Thunder Confrontation," and military exercises between the United States and the Philippines one after another, creating new destabilizing factors for the already tense situation in the South China Sea.
As for the differences surrounding the South China Sea issue, the Philippines' recent behavior can be said to be more and more excessive. According to Reuters and other foreign media reports, Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro issued a statement on April 27 saying that since Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos took office in 2022, his department "does not know, let alone be a party to any internal agreement with China."
Philippine Secretary of Defense Teodoro
In fact, this is an open denial of the temporary arrangement reached between China and the Philippines during the current term of office of the Philippine government, and even at the beginning of this year, regarding the Philippines transporting supplies to the warship "Sierra Madre", which is illegally beached at China's Ren'ai Jiao.
This statement is after Marcos Jr. publicly denied the "gentlemen's agreement" between China and the Philippines, and the Philippine side once again turned its back and denied its account.
First of all, from the perspective of the "gentlemen's agreement" between China and the Philippines. As we all know, after the so-called "South China Sea Arbitration" concocted by the United States and the Philippines in 2016, China-Philippines relations were very tense.
At that time, the situation at Second Thomas Shoal, including the entire South China Sea, was very tense. Later, the two US aircraft carrier fleets left in disgrace, and the Philippines became an outcast, and Duterte, who had just taken over as president of the Philippines, almost broke with the United States in a scolding way, and then turned to improving relations with China.
Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte
However, out of good-neighborliness and friendship and maintaining overall peace in the South China Sea, China did not criticize the Philippines too harshly for its previous actions, and the situation in the South China Sea gradually subsided after that, and during Duterte's presidency of the Philippines, China and the Philippines basically did not break out much friction in the South China Sea.
From the almost outbreak of a military confrontation to the calm of the storm, there is no need to check any information, just from the most basic logical considerations, I know that there must be some statements in this. It is impossible to say that the Philippines is still touching porcelain on the front foot, and if the US military is withdrawn on the back foot, China will not care. The Philippine warships illegally beached on Ren'ai Shoal are stationed there, and how can the basic survival of these people be guaranteed?
The "gentlemen's agreement" is actually the arrangement between China and the Philippines on issues such as the beaching of warships on Ren'ai Jiao after the United States instigated the Philippines to provoke it, and it is supported by facts.
To be specific, China, out of humanitarianism, will not stop the Philippines from delivering food and water to the dilapidated warship, but the Philippines cannot deliberately stir up trouble and make any illegal building materials.
A Philippine warship illegally beached at Ren'ai Jiao on the mainland
However, after the current Philippine government came to power, it went so far as to openly claim that such a "gentleman's agreement" does not exist, which is obviously a lie.
Because if this "gentleman's agreement" does not exist, when the Philippines was abandoned by the United States in 2016, China would have already settled the matter and would not leave a tail. Mischief Reef can be reclaimed from the sea to make an airport, but Ren'ai Reef, which is only 33 kilometers away, can't it?
To put it bluntly, this was exactly the goodwill that China showed to the Philippines at that time in order to stabilize the overall situation in the South China Sea. As a result, now the Marcos government has turned its face ruthlessly and simply refuses to admit it.
The reason given by Marcos is that the "gentlemen's agreement" between China and the Philippines was signed by China during the previous Duterte administration, so it has nothing to do with the current administration, so it can not be observed.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos
In view of the fact that the Marcos family and the Duterte family have now fallen out and do not recognize the arrangements made by the previous administration, and now the Philippine defense secretary has denied the "new model" agreed by China and the Philippines at the beginning of this year to deliver daily necessities to Philippine warships illegally beached on Ren'ai Jiao.
This is complete treachery and dishonesty. At the end of last year, the Philippines insisted on provocation in the South China Sea, and China could not bear it anymore and warned the Philippines in a very harsh tone, asking them to "pull back from the precipice". Moreover, the "People's Daily" also used the bell as a pen name to officially issue a warning.
According to traditional Chinese customs, this is the "ceremony" of salute first and then soldier, to put it bluntly, the distance "don't say it in advance", there may only be the last step. This is the most straightforward and obvious warning, if the Philippines does not stop at that time, then it is possible to bear all the consequences.
Against this background, the Philippines immediately softened, and its president sent a special envoy to visit China, saying that he believed that the problems between China and the Philippines could be resolved bilaterally and would not involve interference from external forces.
China-Philippines relations
Tensions have finally calmed down, and since then, friction between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea has eased slightly, with the Chinese side reporting that out of humanitarian spirit, it has made "temporary arrangements" for the Philippines to deliver supplies to beached warships.
Otherwise, how could the situation between the two sides have eased up all of a sudden? As a result, the Philippines has now refused to admit its account.
If the current Philippine government does not admit the "gentlemen's agreement" between the two sides during the previous administration, it can be explained by the internal struggle in the Philippines, but now the Philippines does not even admit the things they agreed during their own term of office, and can only say that they have no intention of keeping their commitments at all.
In this case, then we have nothing to dwell on, and if the Philippines dares to take risks next time and bring the situation at Ren'ai Jiao to a tense atmosphere, I am afraid there will be no chance of reining in the precipice.
Philippine Coast Guard
As a matter of fact, the fact that the Philippines has suddenly become so "rigid" at present is nothing more than that the United States and the Philippines are currently conducting "shoulder to shoulder" military exercises, and the Philippines feels that no matter what, it is impossible for China to take a serious action against the Philippines while the US warships are still there.
To put it bluntly, it is a backer, and it is inevitable that it will be a little rampant.
But objectively speaking, this is of course a misunderstanding, and the only reason why China is still restrained at the moment is that the Philippines has not stirred up trouble or succeeded in creating trouble on the issue of Ren'ai Jiao recently.
Otherwise, if you really continue to transport illegal building materials and there is a military confrontation, not to mention that the US military is only conducting joint military exercises with the Philippines, it is specifically to help the Philippines stand on the platform, what can you do?
Our coast guard drove away the Philippine vessels that trespassed on Ren'ai Jiao
In this sense, the Philippines can be said to have blocked all its retreat routes, and it is good not to cause trouble in the future, but once it does, it can only bear the consequences.