Just as the China-Japan and China-South Korea issues are essentially China-US issues, the same is true for China and the Philippines. Specific to the Philippines, there are two differences from Japan and South Korea.
First, based on historical continuity. Do you remember what MacArthur said when he fled the Philippines during World War II? It was 1941, and in the face of the Japanese attack, the American army could not resist, and MacArthur had to abandon Manila and retreat to Bataan.
Although there was a confrontation with the Japanese army in Bataan, due to the Japanese army occupying Malaysia and other places, the British commander Posival actually raised a white flag and surrendered - the expeditionary force in Yunnan-Burma and MacArthur in South Asia, this is the Britain in World War II, and France can be called a nesting dragon and phoenix for a while.
Obviously, the Philippines is over, and Roosevelt told MacArthur to throw everything away and come back quickly. You can lose anything, but MacArthur can't be a prisoner. In this way, MacArthur evacuated the Philippines and swore to God before leaving: I will definitely return.
Sure enough, in 1944, MacArthur came back and staged a wave of solo shows - instead of going directly to land, he waded into the Philippines.
So why is MacArthur so noisy? Not only because of MacArthur's personality, but also because the Philippines was the only American colony in Asia before World War II. In other words, historically, the relationship between the Philippines and the United States has far exceeded that of Japan and South Korea. To put it bluntly, the Philippines has been completely transformed by the United States, which brings us to the second difference.
Second, the most westernized Asian countries. Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, India and other countries, no matter how you put it, still retain their local or Oriental cultural heritage.
But the Philippines has almost, at least the elites, been completely Westernized, why did the author come to this conclusion? This is because the author has worked in a company in the Philippines. What I remember most is the bold words of its management: what I produce, customers will accept. It's nothing more than the difference between passive acceptance and active acceptance.
At that time, the author was confused, and then it suddenly dawned on me: Isn't this the same as American thinking? Therefore, the author has a personal definition of the Philippines early on (before 2005): Asia's No. 1 anti-bone boy.
After talking about these two points, the author would like to ask: Is it surprising that the Philippines is making such a fuss in the South China Sea with the United States now? No surprise at all! This leads to the question that this article will focus on: Will the Philippines be beaten if it repeatedly provokes and touches porcelain in the South China Sea? The author believes that depending on these three points, it has nothing to do with the United States.
The first point: the need for counter-hegemony. The general trend of today's history is anti-hegemony! There are three fulcrums that support the unipolar hegemony of the United States, namely: NATO plus Britain in Europe, Israel plus petrodollars in the Middle East, and South China Sea plus Japan in Asia.
Today, the breaking point in Europe is the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the breaking point in the Middle East is the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. In other words, there is a hot war in Europe and the Middle East, how can there be peace here in Asia? This is the reason why the United States is pulling the Philippines and other countries to engage in military exercises.
At the same time, it is also the reason why the Philippines has repeatedly gone to the South China Sea to provoke and touch porcelain - even if it is washed by the bath and peeled off its skin, it is also screaming to do it to the end, to be a demon to the point of "becoming an immortal".
Therefore, the author believes that whether the Philippines can be beaten or not does not depend on the Philippines or the United States, but on the need for counter-hegemony.
That is, whether beating the Philippines, that is, escalating the South China Sea, will help counter-hegemony, or will it not help or even harm counter-hegemony, is the first consideration! If it contributes to counter-hegemony, then the South China Sea will inevitably escalate here – pointing at US hegemony, not against the Philippines.
If it is not helpful or even harmful, then exercise restraint - after all, if you can't bear it, you will plot big, continue to "you hit your atomic bomb, I will throw my grenade", and you will never fall into the trap of your opponent.
The second point is that it depends on the needs of the Asia-Pacific region
Escalating the South China Sea, or even beating the Philippines, is not a problem, because the real question is, after escalating the situation in the South China Sea, can it be controlled and steered in a direction that is beneficial to oneself? The so-called: win the tactics, lose the strategy, you can't do anything!
As I said at the beginning, behind the Philippines is the United States, and the real fulcrum of the United States here in the Asia-Pacific region is not the Philippines, but Japan - after all, the Philippines is too small to bear the heavy responsibility of "strategic fulcrum". That is, the real point of the game in the Asia-Pacific region is the question of how to eliminate the fulcrum of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region.
Obviously, the Philippines is a secondary contradiction, and as long as the main contradiction is resolved, then the secondary contradiction will be easily solved.
The key point why Israel is so embarrassed in the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict lies in the general trend of counter-hegemony.
Only then did people discover that there were only three truly independent countries in the world, one was China, one was Russia, and the other was not the United States, but Israel...... This is the effect of grasping the main contradiction.
Looking at the Philippines making trouble every day, can it have the effect of "Israel"? No! Since we can't, we should still grasp the main contradiction. If the escalation of the South China Sea will help solve the fulcrum set by the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, it will inevitably escalate without hesitation, which will be helpless or even harmful, then let the bullets fly for a while......
The third point is that it depends on the needs of the ASEAN economic circle
The Philippines is a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the ASEAN Economic Circle is the foundation of Asia. That is, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in Europe, the landlord's house is almost empty. The Middle East is in turmoil because of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. If Asia here is in the South China Sea and Asia becomes a mess because of the escalation of the South China Sea, then who will laugh crazy?
It has to be the United States! The author once had a definition of the United States: the United States is a master of rottenness! That is, what the United States needs is chaos in the world except for the Americas, so that it can continue to maintain its unipolar hegemony and continue to suck the blood of the world. Unbelief? Look at those hot wars after World War II, were they fought in three places: Asia, Europe and the Middle East?
For example, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Kosovo War, the Iraq War, and so on, you can see that the problem is coming, why didn't a hot war break out around the United States - the United States is not worse than what! Therefore, escalating the situation in the South China Sea has nothing to do with the United States, but depends on whether the ASEAN economic circle needs it.
General Analysis: Why Does the Philippines Repeatedly Provoke Porcelain Mania? In addition to what was said at the beginning, it was too deeply controlled by the United States, and it was also based on seeing these three points that he dared to "jump on the grave" in this way.
In other words, the Philippines has completely deviated from the general trend of history, completely disregarding the overall interests of Asia, and completely ignoring its own interests.
Therefore, the Philippines will pay the price, and that day is not far off. Of course, the above is only the author's personal opinion......