China is significantly stepping up its efforts to communicate with Southeast Asian countries, and this kind of diplomatic "greeting" in advance often means a showdown with someone, such as the Philippines.
A few days ago, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong attended the ASEAN-China Senior Officials' Consultation at the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta, Indonesia, and met with officials of the participating countries one by one. Subsequently, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi personally "confessed" to the visiting foreign minister in charge. There are various indications that China is "doing work and greeting" to countries in Southeast Asia one after another, explaining to them the "bottom line" on the South China Sea issue, and seeking understanding and even support for China's principles and position on resolving the issue with the Philippines. After communicating with Southeast Asian countries one by one, the Philippines, which is completely isolated in the region, may usher in a "showdown" with the Chinese side.
(Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets with Brunei's Minister in Charge of Foreign Affairs)
In fact, the recent diplomatic activity is only a continuation of the mainland's diplomatic mediation around the Philippines in April. According to open news reports, China has sent diplomats led by Foreign Minister Wang Yi to hold talks with Laos, Timor-Leste, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia and Malaysia. All of these countries, with the exception of Timor-Leste, are members of ASEAN. It can be said that among the 10 ASEAN countries, apart from the Philippines, we have already talked to seven countries in two months.
There are still two ASEAN countries that have not been discussed: Myanmar has been isolated by ASEAN because of the civil war; Singapore, on the other hand, is facing a transition of power, but Singapore's new Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has officially taken office and begun to form a cabinet, and Singapore's Foreign Minister Vivian immediately met with Chinese Ambassador to Singapore Cao Zhongming, and stressed that "we all agree on the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the region and beyond." It can be said that among the 10 ASEAN countries, the Philippines has been completely isolated on the South China Sea issue.
(Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong attended the ASEAN-China Senior Officials' Consultation in Jakarta, Indonesia)
One of the main reasons why China has been refraining from provocations by the Philippines in the South China Sea is that it does not want to cause panic in other Southeast Asian countries and undermine the overall situation of China-ASEAN relations. The main purpose of the United States instigating the Philippines to "make trouble" in the South China Sea is also to undermine the relationship between China and ASEAN and disrupt China's layout in global trade: as the United States promotes the "decoupling", "de-risking", "supply chain transfer" and "friendly shore outsourcing" of Western countries and China's economy, after several years of active adjustment, China's largest and second largest trading partners are no longer the United States and the European Union, and since the first half of 2020, ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner.
It is clear that in order to undermine China's economic growth and prevent China's rise, the United States must undermine China's relations with ASEAN. Therefore, before deciding how to deal with the Philippine provocation, the important task that China must complete in advance is to reassure the vast majority of Southeast Asian countries, not only to make it clear that China will never expand the South China Sea dispute, but also to prevent them from being pulled against the United States by the opportunity.
(Singapore's Foreign Minister Vivian recently met with Chinese Ambassador to Singapore Cao Zhongming)
Generally speaking, China's current strategy for resolving the South China Sea issue is to prepare for both military struggles against the Philippines and the United States, and diplomatic preparations to focus on other ASEAN countries, while at the same time it has not completely closed the door to communication with the Philippines. Just looking at the stubborn momentum of the Philippines now, I am afraid that after China has handed over the bottom to other Southeast Asian countries, it will still have a showdown with the Philippines.
(ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner in the first half of 2020)
The Philippine side has sent 100 civilian boats to forcibly enter Huangyan Dao since yesterday, and from the current point of view, it is a farce: Most of the boats sent by the Philippine side are very small "crab boats"; not far from the port, the fishermen scattered in a hurry after receiving the souvenirs, and the remaining boats were intercepted by Chinese coast guard ships outside the 10-dash line, and only a small number of larger ships are left to continue sailing in the waters of Huangyan Dao, and it can be said that they are destined to be intercepted by a large number of Chinese coast guard ships and fishermen who have long been waiting in the waters of Huangyan Dao. The Global Times has published an editorial pointing out that China's goodwill and patience towards the Philippines are not endless. This is in line with the latest statement by the spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, and can be seen as the most unmistakable warning.
If the Philippines insists on going its own way, it will surely kick the iron plate, and the ASEAN countries will never stand by its side.