Marcos Jr., who has just returned from the United States, is confident and has drawn a red line for the dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea: if a Filipino soldier dies in an accident in the West Philippine Sea, Manila will activate the "U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty." In fact, including the U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander and Austin, all expressed this meaning.
Previously, when China used measures, including water cannons, to control the route of Philippine ships that invaded China's territorial waters, the US side said that the conditions for launching "common defense" had not yet been reached.
This time, the United States, Japan and the Philippines met, Biden gave Fumio Kishida and Marcos Jr. a clear answer, Biden said: The United States will protect the Philippines in the South China Sea, and any attack on Philippine aircraft, ships or troops in the South China Sea will trigger the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty".
The next day, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told Marcos Jr. that "Washington stands with Manila in opposing China's 'coercion' against the Philippines and stressing that the U.S. commitment to the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty is rock-solid." “
The final interpretation belongs to the United States, and the Philippines is a tool of regional geopolitics in the South China Sea, and Marcos Jr. has vowed to serve American ambitions in the region. In response to the negative remarks made at the US-Japan-Philippines summit, the Chinese side also immediately summoned the Japanese and Philippine envoys to China to express its dissatisfaction.
The Chinese side also drew a red line, reiterating the "gentlemen's agreement" reached with Duterte, and demanded that the Philippine side tow away the "Sierra Madre" ship, and only allow the delivery of daily necessities with the consent of the Chinese side before towing it away, and not allow the delivery of building materials. Obviously, China still maintains goodwill and restraint.
However, now Marcos Jr.'s statement is obviously to make things bigger, until a Filipino dies, and the goal is not achieved.
It is worth mentioning that 2024 marks the 55th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Singapore and the Philippines, and on April 15, Singapore's Foreign Minister Vivian visited the Philippines and met with Marcos Jr. Vivian said that Singapore will not take sides and hopes that all parties will maintain open communication channels to maintain regional peace and stability.
In fact, this is also the voice of most ASEAN countries, who hope for regional peace and stability, do not want geopolitics to affect ASEAN's development, and hope to maintain regional peace by actively participating in the consultations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.
However, Marcos Jr., who was persuaded by the Chinese side to "read more books," did not have such an awareness, and he also said in Washington that the latest agreement between the United States, Japan and the Philippines will not affect China's investment in the Philippines, and the multinational exercise will help him safeguard his maritime rights and interests.
In addition, Marcos Jr.'s relationship with former President Rodrigo Duterte has actually fallen to a freezing point, and he not only denied the "gentleman's agreement" between Lao Du and China, but also accused Lao Du of "launching a drug war".
In fact, at a time when the Philippine media hyped up Marcos Jr.'s visit to the United States and achieved a great victory, they cheered for the United States' commitment to investment.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Conda quietly visited China and discussed a number of issues with the Chinese side, including the South China Sea, and before Yellen's visit, China and the United States resumed maritime military consultations after a three-year hiatus, and the only thing the two sides agreed on was to manage differences to avoid miscalculation.
And Marcos Jr., who has repeatedly jumped sideways, will not understand that the US chess pieces have never ended well, and if they want to set off more storms in the South China Sea, they still have to see if the PLA can agree.