Recently, the Philippine side once again denied reaching any agreement with China on the situation at Second Thomas Shoal. Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro has said that they will never agree to a similar agreement that undermines the Philippines' so-called "sovereignty in the South China Sea." The implication is that the Philippines refuses to withdraw from Second Thomas Shoal, and they will still take action to assert so-called "sovereignty in the South China Sea." #军史观察团#
Of course, the Philippines dares to continue to stir up trouble in the South China Sea, and in the final analysis, it relies on the support of external forces led by the United States. From the perspective of time, the news that China and the Philippines have reached a "new model" on Ren'ai Jiao transportation and replenishment was first disclosed by the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines in a relevant statement on April 18, and the Philippine side responded after more than a week, which should be a comprehensive assessment of Blinken's visit to China.
The logic is very simple: since the phone call between the top level of China and the United States in early April, the United States has repeatedly briefed on Blinken's visit to China. The Philippines has not responded for a long time, and most of it is just waiting and seeing. They are worried that if Blinken's visit to China reaches some substantive results with China, the United States may not provide much support to the Philippines in the South China Sea in the short term. In this way, in the event of further provocation by the Philippines, they will find themselves in a dilemma at any time. On the other hand, if the Philippines temporarily reins in a little, even if the Sino-US talks collapse, they will have more room to continue provocations.
Therefore, we can see that in addition to not rushing to respond to the bilateral agreement disclosed by the Chinese side, the Philippines even took the initiative to refute the rumors on the eve of Blinken's visit to China, clarifying that the previous audio about Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos ordering actions against China is not true, emphasizing that Marcos will not do so. The Philippines' move is clearly aimed at cooling tensions in the South China Sea. Otherwise, they have the support of the United States, and there is no need for them to soften their tone at all.
Therefore, the tone in the Philippines has begun to harden again at this time, most likely because it sees that Blinken's visit to China has not eased tensions between China and the United States. For example, before Blinken left China, he was still threatening to sanction China's institutions for cooperation with Russia, and this should send a signal that the United States will still take various measures to contain China in the future.
For the Philippines, the deterioration of relations between China and the United States is an opportunity for them to pursue interests in the South China Sea. As soon as Blinken ended his visit to China, the Philippine defense secretary stood up and responded strongly to China, and the Philippines obviously wanted to tell the United States that they would continue to cooperate with the United States in targeting China in the South China Sea.
Sure enough, just after the Philippine side denied the Sino-Philippine consensus, Japanese media revealed that the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines were preparing to hold talks in Hawaii, the United States, in early May. It is foreseeable that the United States, Japan and Australia have pulled the Philippines to hold a small meeting at this time, presumably for the purpose of arching the fire. On the one hand, the four countries have previously taken joint actions in the direction of the South China Sea. On the other hand, the United States and Japan recently held a trilateral summit with the Philippines, during which the United States and Japan expressed their support for the Philippines in person.
It is worth noting that the 10,000-person military exercise between the United States and the Philippines is expected to last until May 10. This means that if the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines finalize a new action plan after this small meeting, they may even be able to seamlessly integrate with the US-Philippine military exercises.
We speculate that the United States, Japan and Australia should join forces to increase their efforts to disrupt the South China Sea at this time, which should not be as simple as demonstrating their so-called support for the Philippines. Such a move is likely to further escalate tensions in the South China Sea. The ripple effect will be that unless the Philippines is willing to rush ahead unconditionally, the United States, Japan and Australia may all be set on fire. In reality, the Philippines seems to have been reserving enough room for itself.
It is precisely in this way that the arch fire between the United States, Japan and Australia may be mainly aimed at maintaining the heat of the South China Sea issue. To put it simply, there is a high probability that they will still not provide much substantive support to the Philippines. And the purpose of this should be twofold. The first is that Blinken's visit to China did not force China to make concessions on issues such as Sino-Russian trade cooperation, so the United States wants to continue to exert pressure on China by meddling in the South China Sea issue, so as to create bargaining chips for the next Sino-US engagement. Second, the United States, Japan, and Australia want to divert the attention of the international community from this military alliance to cover up the expansion of the AUKUS military alliance to Japan.
However, no matter what kind of schemes the United States, Japan, and Australia have, they will not succeed in meddling in the South China Sea. According to the China Maritime Safety Administration, the PLA's shooting training in the South China Sea will continue until the end of the month starting on April 28. This is also the second time that the PLA has carried out operations in the South China Sea since the US-Philippine military exercise lasted more than a week. This is enough to show that the PLA has been prepared for the Philippines' action of enlisting external forces to disrupt the South China Sea.
Therefore, no matter what kind of action plan the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines reach, as long as they dare to carry out infringement and provocation against China in the direction of the South China Sea, the PLA will resolutely counterattack.