According to Russian media reports, recently, French Ambassador to the Philippines Marie Fontanel said that France will start negotiations with the Philippines on the "Visiting Forces Agreement", which, if implemented, will give France legitimacy to participate in Philippine military exercises.
Against the backdrop of increasing tension in the South China Sea and the Philippines' insistence on provoking China, does France want to give the Philippines a platform like the United States?
In fact, this is not the case, because while France is negotiating the so-called "Visiting Forces Agreement" with the Philippines, it has also strengthened military exchanges with China.
The Philippines and France establish ties
According to Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao" and other media reports, the Chinese and French militaries have recently established a mechanism for cooperation and exchanges between the wars, the commander of the Southern Theater of the Chinese People's Liberation Army and the commander of the French Pacific Maritime Region held talks, and the two sides signed a framework document on strengthening dialogue on maritime and air cooperation in the theater.
On the one hand, it has strengthened military cooperation and exchanges with the Philippines and on the other hand, it has signed with China the terms of dialogue and cooperation between the two armed forces at the theater level.
First of all, from the perspective of the situation in the South China Sea itself, although the Philippines is now bent on confronting porcelain in the South China Sea, and although it has received the support and connivance of the United States, the Philippine top level is actually very clear that the United States will of course verbally guarantee that it will support the Philippines to the end before China does not intend to make serious moves.
However, once the Philippines' related behavior provokes China and touches China's bottom line, then the United States will not dare or want to fight China for the sake of the Philippines.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, U.S. President Joe Biden
In this context, his current behavior in the South China Sea is a typical act of "grandstanding". To put it bluntly, it is impossible to really fight, but the Philippines has been provocative, and it has no bottom in its heart, so it hopes to win over more Western countries to support it, so as to put pressure on China in international public opinion.
At this time, the purpose of seeking to strengthen military exchanges with France, the pillar of the European Union and a permanent member of the Security Council, is, of course, to get France to "endorse" their behavior in the South China Sea and send a signal that "France also supports the Philippines".
Secondly, from France's point of view, Southeast Asia itself was the focus of France's global colonization in the past, and Vietnam next to the Philippines was once a French colony.
Later, China became stronger and stronger, and the influence of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region also grew rapidly, gradually squeezing Britain and France, the old capitalist colonial powers, out of the Pacific Ocean, and France had to shrink its minions and sit back and watch the game between China and the United States and even the United States and the Soviet Union in the Pacific.
French naval power
Although most of its military deployment and influence have been retracted back to Europe due to national independence movements in the Asia-Pacific region and the emergence of major powers such as China and the United States, in the South Pacific, France still has some uninhabited or very few colonized islands and reefs.
These islands and reefs are considered to be France's Pacific territories, and in fact have become the fulcrum for France to extend its black hand to the Asia-Pacific region.
In today's great power game between China and the United States, the United States regards the Philippines as a pawn to restrain China and instigates the Philippines to stir up trouble in the South China Sea, but the United States' own strength is not enough to form an advantage over China, so it is inevitable that it wants to form a gang and find more helpers.
Correspondingly, due to the development crisis of the European economy and the threat of the supply chain and industrial chain caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU powers, including France, can actually not continue to gain more markets within Europe and stabilize the war-torn economy.
European Union
But development is the last word, and if development stagnates, then no matter what France does, no matter how much it wants to truly get rid of the manipulation of the United States and become independent, it is unlikely. Against this backdrop, the search for a broader Asia-Pacific region, which has clearly become the backbone of global economic growth, has become an inevitable choice for France.
In fact, not only France, but also the traditional Western powers, including Britain, are trying to expand their influence in the Pacific as much as possible, and thus seek to profit from the booming economic centers of Asia.
From this point of view, France is now actively negotiating the so-called "Visiting Forces Agreement" with the Philippines, which is an attempt to extend its tentacles back to Asia, so as to expand its influence and even gain more Chinese markets.
Finally, from the perspective of Sino-French relations, France certainly wants to extend its tentacles to the Asia-Pacific region, the Philippines takes the initiative to step up, and the United States does not stop it in order to contain China, but this is not enough. France also needs to be "recognized" by China, or at least it must not quarrel with China on the issue of military deployment in the Asia-Pacific region.
French Foreign Minister Céjourne visited China to meet with Foreign Minister Wang Yi
Because to put it bluntly, the two big countries in the Asia-Pacific region that can really decide things are China and the United States, especially China, the world's largest manufacturing center, which is actually the engine of Asia's economic take-off.
If France wants to extend its tentacles into the Asia-Pacific region and want more market and economic influence, it cannot do without China. However, China, as a major country with absolute influence in the region, is willing to maintain economic cooperation with France, but does not want to see foreign forces disturb the regional situation for their own selfish interests, especially in the South China Sea.
France is also well aware of this, so while negotiating relevant resolutions with the Philippines, France is also strengthening military exchanges with China, in fact, it is conveying to China that France only wants to enhance its influence in the Asia-Pacific region in a balanced way, and does not really want to help the Philippines.
To put it bluntly, France wants to prove that it is neutral and does not take sides through such a move.
French President Emmanuel Macron
Now France has strengthened the military communication mechanism with the southern theater of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, which can be said to be a patch for France's presence on the islands in the southern Pacific Ocean. In this way, they will increase the frequency of their activities in the Pacific in the future, and they will not have to worry about friction and confrontation with China, at least not about miscalculations on both sides.
Finally, from China's point of view, France has indirectly intervened in the South China Sea at the invitation of the Philippines and with the acquiescence of the United States.
Although France has been able to communicate with China in advance, establish a dialogue mechanism, and show that it does not want to have friction with China, we still need to remain vigilant, especially to strengthen the negotiation of the "Code of Conduct for All Parties in the South China Sea".