At present, China-Philippines relations are tense and complicated on the South China Sea issue.
Despite the obvious differences and frictions between the two sides, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong and Philippine Deputy Foreign Minister Lazaro held an important bilateral meeting during the China-ASEAN Senior Officials' Consultation.
The talks undoubtedly provided a platform for the two sides to exchange and communicate with each other in an attempt to find possible ways to solve the problem in the tense situation.
[China-Philippines High-level Diplomatic Talks Hold Key Bilateral Dialogues]
However, we must be soberly aware that this meeting does not mean that there has been a fundamental change in the direction of the South China Sea wind, nor does it mean that the Philippines' attitude on the South China Sea issue has softened.
Indeed, if the government of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had been willing to move in the face of China from the outset, the current tensions might not have occurred at all.
But unfortunately, due to various reasons, the two sides have come to this point.
Nonetheless, in the current tense situation, the importance of formal dialogue has become even more prominent.
When tensions reach a certain level, the purpose of bilateral dialogue may not only be to de-escalate the situation, but more likely to prepare for a more complex situation that may arise.
This preparation may include seeking a mutually acceptable solution or developing a strategy for possible conflicts.
Judging by the atmosphere of the talks, it does not seem to be easy. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs did not elaborate on the details of the talks in its briefing, and Lazaro's statements on social media were relatively modest.
He mentioned that the two sides exchanged views on maritime issues and regional peace and stability, but did not disclose the details and results.
[Lazaro reveals details of the talks on social media]
It is worth noting that in the social media photos posted by Lazaro, a subtle detail has emerged.
During the ASEAN-China Senior Officials' Consultation, the media captured Lazaro staring at the Chinese representative's seat.
The language of this shot is rich and complex, and it seems to suggest tension and confrontation between the two sides.
The photo was not captured by the Philippines' own media, but by staff from the ASEAN Secretariat.
This detail further highlights the complexity and sensitivity of China-Philippines relations.
The photo was placed on Lazaro's profile as if to show the outside world his focus and determination in the talks.
However, on a deeper level, this may also hint at ASEAN's concern and concern about China-Philippines relations.
After all, the rigidity of China-Philippines relations is not only not beneficial to both sides, but may also have an impact on ASEAN's overall stability and development.
Anyone with a discerning eye can see that if the Marcos Jr. administration does not change its current provocative posture, it will be difficult to achieve substantial improvement in the situation in the South China Sea. Against the backdrop of the Philippines' all-out efforts to draw closer to the United States and strengthen defense cooperation, the South China Sea issue remains even hotter. This situation not only exacerbates regional tensions, but also provides a strategic fulcrum for deepening defense relations between the United States and the Philippines.
What is even more worrying is that in a recent joint military exercise in the Philippines, a Chinese-made oil tanker was used as a target for shooting training. This apparent provocation undoubtedly treats China as an "imaginary enemy" and further exacerbates tensions between the two sides.
[U.S.-Philippine military exercises treat China as an "imaginary enemy"]
In response to a reporter's question, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong explicitly mentioned the deployment of intermediate-range missile systems by the United States in the Philippines.
He said that this is a serious act of turning back the clock on history, seriously undermining regional peace and stability, and at the same time treating regional countries as their hegemonic tools and "agents".
This statement undoubtedly conveys to the outside world China's firm position and determination for regional peace and stability.
In the eyes of the outside world, China's statement at this time seems to have tacitly acquiesced that the Philippines has become a "proxy" of the United States.
Under these circumstances, one cannot expect any substantive outcome from the negotiations between an independent and autonomous power and the "agents" of extraterritorial states.
This judgment is not groundless, but is based on the current situation and the consideration of practical interests.
Since Marcos Jr. took office, the Philippines has repeatedly backtracked and treacherously on the South China Sea issue.
From the initial "gentlemen's agreement" to the current "new model" of Ren'ai Jiao transportation and replenishment, the Philippine government's various actions have shown its complex mentality and ambivalent attitude towards the South China Sea issue.
And when its national security adviser clamored for the expulsion of the Chinese ambassador, the tension was pushed to a new level.
In response, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the mainland responded with the words "angry and ruined, without a bottom line", expressing its dissatisfaction with and condemnation of the provocative acts of the Philippine government.
[The Pony government's policy towards the South China Sea is in trouble]
In this situation, it seems difficult to find a common language in the bilateral dialogue between the top diplomatic leaders of China and the Philippines.
The differences and contradictions between the two sides were fully reflected in the talks, and the results of the talks appeared to be quite limited.
Still, ASEAN hopes that China and the Philippines can sit down and negotiate, even if it's just a routine meeting.
They know that if China and the Philippines are not even willing to talk, then ASEAN as a whole must prepare for the worst-case scenario in the South China Sea.
For China, dialogue with the Philippines is not just about persuading it to turn back, but also about reassuring ASEAN's concerns and stabilizing the region.
ASEAN countries are most worried about the continued deterioration of the maritime dispute between China and the Philippines, which will have an impact on the security situation in the entire region.
Therefore, they hope that China can play a more active role in the South China Sea issue and become the "anchor of the sea" for maintaining regional peace and stability.
The Philippines also needs to weigh the pros and cons to avoid a hostile relationship with ASEAN.
If it is too arrogant and provocative on the South China Sea issue, it is likely to face the risk of being isolated within ASEAN.
At the same time, the Marcos Jr. administration has not completely given up its attempt to woo ASEAN over the South China Sea, which means that the Philippines will not risk offending the entire ASEAN at this time.
Therefore, during the consultations with senior ASEAN-China officials, Lazaro reaffirmed the Philippines' commitment to advancing ASEAN-China strategic cooperation.
[ASEAN expects China and the Philippines to maintain restraint and cooperation]
In addition, strengthening cooperation with China has become an inevitable trend for ASEAN.
If the Marcos Jr. administration wants to go against the grain on this issue, it must not only look at ASEAN's face and act, but also carefully weigh whether the Philippines currently has the capital and strength to "decouple and break the chain" with China.
After all, what is difficult for even the United States to do is even more difficult for the Philippines.
A combination of factors has contributed to the bilateral talks between China and the Philippines, but the Philippines' actions in the South China Sea may still cause new waves and challenges in the future, and we should remain calm and vigilant in this regard, and pay close attention to how the game between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea will develop and change after the full involvement of the United States.
At the same time, we should also recognize ASEAN's role and role in it, and seek more cooperation and exchanges with ASEAN to jointly safeguard regional peace, stability, development and prosperity.