On April 14, 2024 local time, from Israel's Ashkelon, Israeli anti-missile systems were intercepting drones and missiles launched from Iran.
Straight News: On the evening of the 13th local time, Iran finally fought back and launched a missile and drone attack on Israel. According to your analysis, why did Iran choose to do it at this point in time?
Shi Hong, Special Commentator: We often hear the saying: "Politics determines the military, and the military serves politics." "Iran's military strikes against Israel are no exception. If it was just to "cool off", then Iran would have hit back at Israel a long time ago. However, strategic games are not simply about saving face, but about taking a holistic view. In other words, there is skill in fighting, not just "recklessly".
The main reason why Iran chose to strike now is that it has made a strategic determination to strike and put it into practice because of its political considerations. First of all, Iran has seen the attitude of all sides, especially the United States, in the last two weeks or so. This is crucial in order to avoid a rash retaliation that would lead to a pinch between the United States and itself. Otherwise, Iran's response will be a relief for Israel. Obviously, over the past 10 days or so, Iran has seen that the United States is genuinely afraid of being deeply involved in the Middle East mess. In this way, Iran has the bottom in its heart and is determined to fight back. Second, Iran needs some time to prepare. Since military action is in the service of politics, it is necessary to carefully consider which targets to strike at Israel, which weapons to use, and what tactics to use. Moreover, Iran's attack on Israel this time is not done alone, but with the Lebanese Allah forces and the Yemeni Houthi forces, which will also take time to coordinate.
Straight News: In your opinion, how effective is Iran's retaliatory strike against Israel?
Shi Hong, Special Commentator: As for the effectiveness of the strikes, judging from the videos that have appeared on the Internet, some Iranian missiles and drones have hit targets, such as Ramon Air Base in the Negev Desert and Nevatim Air Base near the Negev Desert, both of which were hit by Iranian missiles. In some Israeli cities, missiles and drones also fell and exploded. As for the specific losses of the Israeli side, it is still unknown at present, but the Israeli side is very tightly covered. The Israeli side officially said that its losses were "very small".
But for Iran, it doesn't matter what the results are. As we said earlier, the military is in the service of politics. By sending out missiles and drones and flying some of them over Israel, Iran's strategic goal has been achieved, that is, Iran dares to "show its sword" against Israel, instead of swallowing its anger. After the Iranian strike, the entire "arc of resistance" was demoralized. If Israel does not fight back against Iran in the future, then Iran will "win" strategically.
U.S. President Joe Biden met with the national security team to discuss Iran's attack on Israel.
Straight News: The United States, Britain and Jordan are all involved in the interception of Iranian missiles and drones this time, does this mean that they will be further involved in the future, causing the situation in the Middle East to deteriorate or even become out of control?
Shi Hong, Special Commentator: Whether the United States and Britain will be further involved now depends on whether the United States can hold Israel down. That is, as long as Israel does not strike at Iran in the future, then the United States and Britain will not intervene further. The United States is trying to prevent itself from being dragged into the water by Israel and bogged down in the Middle East. So we have seen that the recent quarrel between the President of the United States and the President of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu has been fierce, and the warnings issued by the United States to Israel have become more and more severe. You can also see that after this Iranian attack on Israel, US media reported that US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a phone call, saying that the United States would not support any Israeli counterattack against Iran. This is, in effect, the new warning of the United States to Israel – to stop escalating the situation.
For Biden, if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates further, not only will the United States be dragged into a quagmire, but it may also lead to a sharp rise in global oil prices, and the chain reaction is that inflation in the United States will fly again and the economic situation will deteriorate, and the probability of Biden succeeding in re-election this year will drop significantly. Therefore, what Biden is anxious about now is not to take any new suppressive measures against Iran, but to hold Netanyahu, the thorn in the coffin who has caused trouble for himself.
After Israel bombed the Iranian embassy building, anti-American and anti-Israeli demonstrations broke out in Iran. associated press
Straight News: Does Iran's attack on Israel have the intention of "encircling Wei and saving Zhao", that is, to relieve pressure on Palestinian armed groups in the Gaza Strip?
Shi Hong: Iran's intentions in this regard are very small, and Iran's main purpose is to retaliate against Israel's recent attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria to stabilize its own camp. Previously, Iran's response to Palestinian armed groups in the Gaza Strip by fighting Israel through its own Shiite armed forces has played a great role in relieving pressure on it. Moreover, it also makes Iran detached from direct conflict with Israel or even the United States. However, Iran's actions have made Israel very uncomfortable, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which has lasted for half a year, has paid a heavy political and economic price for Israel, and Israel's situation has become more and more passive. Strategically, Israel has become a loser, while Iran's influence in the Middle East is growing, and its power is unscathed. Under such circumstances, Israel became angry and directly attacked the Iranian Embassy in Syria, "riding on the face" of Iran, venting its resentment in its heart, and trying to turn the Palestinian-Israeli conflict into a conflict between Israel and Iran, dragging the United States into the water.
Iran sees Israel's true intentions clearly, but it cannot but respond strongly. If Iran does not strike back at Israel, then the other partners of the "Arc of Resistance" will despise and even complain about Iran, and it will be difficult for Iran to lead the team in the future. Therefore, Iran has gone to great lengths to retaliate at Israel but with restraint, such as targeting only military targets, in order to warn Israel that it will retreat in the face of difficulties and to convey that Iran does not want to escalate the situation.
Author丨Shi Hong, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".
Editor丨Yang Ying, Editor-in-Chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News