Iran's revenge war has finally begun, but instead of being as devastating as the outside world expected, the fighting ended in just a few hours.
In the early hours of April 14, Iran launched a drone missile attack on Israeli territory and claimed to have successfully hit military targets inside Israel. But according to the Israeli side, Iran fired a total of 150 missiles in this attack, but 99% of them were intercepted, causing only one injury.
One said it was a successful hit, the other said it was all intercepted, Iran and Israel have their own opinions, and it is difficult to distinguish between the true and the false, but the only thing that is certain is that Iran's retaliatory actions, which have been brewing for weeks, are basically over.
Iran fired missiles into the territory of Israel
On the 14th, the Iranian Permanent Mission to the United Nations publicly released a message declaring that Iran's attack on Israel under Article 51 of the UN Charter can be regarded as "over" and that if Israel repeats it, the counterattack will be even more severe.
Since Iran has said so, then this matter is basically a turning page, but this seems to be a little different from what the outside world expected.
You must know that since the Israeli air raid on the Iranian embassy in Syria on April 1, all parties in the Middle East have been tense, Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel, and the trend of escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is almost impossible to contain.
But then, the Iranian side took the initiative to send a signal to the United States, persuading the United States not to fall for Israel, and at the same time, the United States also warned Iran through various channels that it had nothing to do with Israel's air strikes on the Iranian Embassy in Syria, and that if Iran wanted to retaliate, it should not involve US military targets.
Israeli airstrikes on the Iranian embassy in Syria
At the same time, Iran's representative to the UN has also publicly demanded that if Israel can stop its military operations in the Gaza Strip, then Iran can refrain from retaliating against Israel.
These signs have made Iran's reluctance to get directly involved in the conflict with Israel clear, and the already tense situation in the Middle East has been relatively tempted to ease.
But things have developed so far, and the Israeli side can be said to be completely indifferent. Although Israel chose to withdraw most of its troops from southern Gaza after the airstrikes on the Iranian embassy.
But Netanyahu openly said that Israel's military operation in Gaza could not be stopped, and at the same time, he did not say anything about the air raid on the Iranian embassy, but instead said harsh words about Iran, and if Iran intervened and retaliated, Israel would turn Iran into "hell".
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Against this backdrop, Iran is effectively cornered, as the embassy is considered a national territory, and Israeli air strikes are not just a matter of bombing the embassy, but also killing the senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
This incident has caused a great deal of public repercussions in Iran, and if the Iranian government cannot get an "explanation" from Israel, or use it to force Israel to cease fire in Gaza, it will not be able to give an account to the Iranian people. Based on this, Iran's retaliation is inevitable.
But this does not mean that there is no room for a turnaround in this matter, and in fact, although Iran's retaliation against Israel is inevitable, it does not mean that a large-scale conflict between Israel and Iran is inevitable.
Based on Iran's current retaliatory methods and the U.S. attitude toward this matter, it is still very possible to avoid a large-scale conflict in the Middle East.
U.S. President Joe Biden
On the one hand, Iran's economy itself is in trouble due to long-term sanctions imposed by the United States and the West, and now the Iranian government is trying to restore the economy and prevent more people in the country from being infiltrated by Western color revolutions, which in turn threatens its own security and government stability.
Therefore, after the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Iran clearly showed that although it is not accustomed to Israel, it is unwilling to directly clash with Israel, and only supports Yemen's Houthis and other proxies to "fight in the ring" with Israel.
The bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria is, of course, very bad and makes Iran angry, but it will not change the situation in the country, the situation in the Middle East, and Iran's basic position on relations with Israel.
In short, Iran wants to avoid war.
U.S.-Iran relations
On the other hand, from the perspective of the United States, the Biden administration itself has many contradictions with Israel because of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and now Israel is almost clearly dragging the United States into the water, and the United States naturally does not want to be involved in this, and once Israel and Iran directly clash on a large scale, the United States will not be able to stay out of it.
Against this backdrop, it is logical to continue to put pressure on Israel to prevent it from overreacting and opening fire directly with Iran.
In addition, war requires strength and logistics, although the United States is still the world's largest military power, but after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in order to support Ukraine, the United States almost exhausted its own ammunition depot, and after the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, it assisted Israel with a lot of money and materials.
In this context, even if the United States is willing to support Israel in fighting Iran, it actually does not have the funds and strength to do so, and based on this, even if the United States wants to protect Israel, it will try its best to avoid being drawn into the conflict.
Iranian missile vehicles
Of course, this is not to say that the conflict will not happen, but that the crux of the problem is ultimately concentrated on Israel. Based on the position that neither the United States nor Iran wants to escalate the situation, Iran's retaliation has been relatively restrained, and the United States has softened its attitude.
And if Israel doesn't want to lead to a war in the Middle East, then a little restraint in dealing with Iran's retaliation, and the matter will be over.
But it is clear that Netanyahu did not want this to end there, and just after the first round of Iranian attacks, a spokesman for the Israeli Defense Ministry issued a statement claiming that a large number of Israeli warplanes were in the air ready to counter the Iranian attack.
If the two sides are caught in a vicious cycle of retaliation and retaliation, then things will be complicated, because even if Iran can exercise restraint now, there is no guarantee that the two sides will not retaliate against each other, and if that happens, the situation will be difficult to manage.
Iranian arsenal
But even at such a risk, Israel has chosen to continue to provoke Iran, in essence, in order to drag the United States into the water. And when it comes to dragging the United States into the water, there is no more direct and effective option than a direct conflict between Israel and Iran.
Just a few days ago, US media reported that the United States had sent two destroyers with the Aegis defense system close to the waters near Israel, which clearly showed that it wanted to support Israel's position.
In other words, Israel's strategy of dragging the United States into the water through a conflict with Iran seems to be working little by little.
U.S. President Joe Biden, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
In order to achieve this goal, Israel is likely to deliberately escalate its attitude with Iran, causing the situation in the Middle East to get completely out of control.
From this point of view, whether the situation in the Middle East will get out of control now depends entirely on what kind of mentality Israel has and what it chooses next.