A few days ago, according to sampling adjustment and industry statistics, the China Wine Association announced the relevant production and sales data of the whole domestic wine industry in 2023, showing that it is expected that in 2023, the total output of China's wine industry will be 300,000 kiloliters, the cumulative sales revenue will be 9.093 billion yuan, and the total profit will be 224 million yuan, showing signs of weak recovery overall.
However, judging from the entire wine market in the first quarter of this year, the future task is still arduous for domestic wines.
1
The whole industry grew by a single digit year-on-year, and the data of domestic wine stabilized
According to the forecast of the China Wine Association, under the leadership of the 1,885 enterprises that have obtained wine production licenses, the total output of China's wine industry in 2023 will be 300,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, the cumulative sales revenue will be 9.093 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and the total profit will be 224 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%.
In terms of output, sales, profit and other three indicators have achieved positive single-digit growth. In response to this data, the China Wine Association said that for the wine industry, although there are challenges in 2023, it remains generally optimistic.
It can be seen that in 2023, the entire wine industry is facing a decline in consumption power, weak market sales, and an increase in channel inventory, the domestic wine industry as a whole remains stable, and the stabilization of market fundamentals also objectively confirms the weak signs of recovery of China's wine industry.
At the same time, the import volume of mainland wine in 2023 will be 249,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.58%, and the import value will be 1.16 billion US dollars (about RMB: 8.168 billion yuan), a year-on-year decrease of 11.73%. Among them, the import volume of bottled wine was 152,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 31.18%, and the import value of bottled wine was 1.131 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 11.42%.
It can be seen that due to the further contraction of imported wine in 2023, from the industry-wide estimates, the volume of domestic wine data has once again exceeded that of imported wine.
2
The number of enterprises above the designated size has decreased again, and the task in the future is still arduous
However, despite this, judging from the wine data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the industry situation is still relatively grim.
At the beginning of this year, the National Bureau of Statistics revised the 2022 statistics of wine enterprises above the designated size, showing that in 2022, the total output of wine production enterprises above the national scale was 139,400 kiloliters, the sales revenue was 6.454 billion yuan, and the profit was 104 million yuan, down 49.2%, 31.83%, and 72.41% respectively from 2021 For wine production enterprises with an annual main business income of more than 20 million yuan, it has been an extremely difficult year in 2022.
At the same time, according to the WBO, the number of wine enterprises on the wine regulation will also decrease again in 2023, from 119 in 2022 to 104, and in 2017, at its peak, it reached 244.
According to the WBO's estimates, although there are still 1,885 wine companies with production licenses, the actual number of enterprises still operating normally may only be 600-700, and because of the lag in updating the operating status of some small production enterprises, the number of enterprises that are still operating normally may be further reduced in the future.
Judging from the terminal market situation in the first quarter of this year, the current wine consumption market is still obviously weak, and the signs of recovery are not clear, and some wine merchants even believe that the first quarter of 2024 is the most "weak" start in recent years.
While the situation remains dire, it is not without signs of recovery. Although the WBO has not yet obtained the sales revenue and profit data of enterprises above designated size in 2023, according to the national wine production data of enterprises above designated size given by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of enterprises above designated size in 2023 will be 143,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, which is the same as the industry-wide estimate of the China Wine Association, showing that domestic wine has achieved recovery growth in 2023.
At the same time, judging from the listed wine companies that have released their 2023 annual reports, although they are not comprehensive, Dynasty Wine, Tongtian Wine, *ST Mogao, and Yiyuan Wine have all achieved positive growth in performance in 2023, which may confirm that the industry has bottomed out.
3
The average sales price has increased significantly, and market consumption still needs to be popularized
At the same time, judging from the average sales price of domestic wine in the overall market in recent years, since 2020 it fell to a trough below 30 yuan/liter, the average sales price of domestic wine has begun to increase significantly, and according to the data of enterprises above the regulations, it has increased to more than 45 yuan/liter in 2022, returning to the highest level in 2017.
"This is due to the attempt to refine wines led by emerging producing areas such as Ningxia, which has improved the quality of domestic wines as a whole, and is reflected in the market price. A senior industry insider said.
According to OIV data, although the mainland is one of the top 10 countries in the world in terms of wine consumption, the per capita wine consumption in the mainland is only 0.6 liters per person, which is much lower than the global per capita consumption and much lower than that of other major consumer countries. Therefore, the China Wine Association also believes that Chinese wine still has a huge room for growth.
During the Spring Sugar Period, WBO also clearly felt that more and more people in the industry began to realize that China's wine consumption market needs to broaden the drinking scene and popularize popular culture, so as to regain the driving force of the market.
"It is necessary to realize the universality of wine consumption in China, so as to expand the overall consumption increment and lead the industry to a real recovery. A relevant person in charge of an import business told WBO.