【Dahe Finance Cube Trainee Reporter Guan Shuaikang】In 2023, difficulties and warmth coexist in the wine industry.
The difficulty is that in 2023, wine imports and domestic wine production will both decline again, and 4 of the 5 A-share wine listed companies are still in a loss vortex.
Warmly, most of the five A-share wine listed companies achieved revenue growth. In addition, the average sales price of 5 companies increased, and the gross profit margin of 4 companies increased year-on-year.
As a leader in the mainland wine industry, Changyu A made it clear in its 2023 annual report that it will still be difficult for the whole industry to get out of the trough in 2024.
Changyu is the only one, and 4 are still in the whirlpool of losses
On the evening of April 26, with the release of the 2023 annual report of CITIC Niya, the financial reports of 5 A-share wine listed companies have been disclosed.
CITIC Niya's annual report is quite a "finale". According to financial data, in 2023, CITIC Niya will achieve an operating income of 212 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.51%, and a net profit of 40 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.42%.
In addition to Changyu A, in 2023, CITIC Niya is another profitable A-share listed wine company, and its revenue and net profit growth are quite impressive.
It should be noted that in 2023, CITIC Niya's profit will be mainly contributed by other income and non-operating income, and the non-net profit deducted on behalf of its main business performance will be -19 million yuan, which has not yet escaped the loss vortex.
In 2023, the largest increase in net profit will be CITIC Niya, and the largest increase in revenue will be *ST Mogao.
According to financial data, in 2023, *ST Mogao will achieve revenue of 198 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.25%, and net profit of -41 million yuan.
*ST Mogao's business is more diversified, and financial information shows that in 2023, *ST Mogao's wine business revenue will be 73 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.13%, accounting for 36.94% of its total revenue.
It should be noted that the performance growth of *ST Mogao has also attracted the attention of regulatory authorities. On April 17, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued an annual report inquiry letter to *ST Mogao, focusing on its revenue growth, gross profit margin growth, current payments, etc. As of press time, *ST Mogao has not responded to the inquiry.
In 2023, the wine revenue of ST Tonglu and Weilong shares will both decline year-on-year.
According to the 2023 annual report of ST Tonglu and Weilong shares, in the current period, Weilong's wine revenue was 367 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.54%; ST Tonglu's wine revenue was 61 million yuan, down 1.3% year-on-year.
Compared with the above four companies, as a leading domestic wine, Changyu A's performance has touched the heart of the entire industry.
Financial information shows that in 2023, Changyu A will achieve revenue of 4.385 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.89%, which is 2.65 times the total revenue of the other four companies. During the same period, Changyu A achieved a net profit of 532 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%.
At the beginning of 2023, Changyu A put forward the goal of revenue of no less than 4.2 billion yuan, and now, the goal has been successfully completed. In 2024, Changyu A put forward a higher goal, striving to achieve revenue of no less than 4.7 billion yuan, and the cost of main business and expenses for the three periods should be controlled below 3.7 billion yuan.
However, in the first quarter of 2024, Changyu A's performance style changed abruptly. According to the financial data, Changyu A's revenue in the current period was 811 million yuan, down 28.34% year-on-year, and its net profit was 159 million yuan, down 42.57% year-on-year.
In this regard, on April 30, a reporter from Dahe Finance Cube called Changyu A Securities Department, and the staff said that due to the recent downturn in the wine industry, revenue declined.
In this case, whether Changyu A can successfully complete the 2024 target, Dahe Finance Cube will continue to pay attention.
The average sales price of wine companies has risen, and the gross profit margin of 4 companies exceeds 50%
In 2023, the overall average sales price and gross profit margin of the wine industry will increase, releasing a trace of warmth for the development of the industry.
According to the sales data of various wine companies according to the statistics of Lifang Public Opinion, in 2023, the average wine sales price of the five A-share listed wine companies will increase.
According to the data, in 2023, the average sales price of *ST Mogao's wine will increase by 45.37% year-on-year, ranking first among the five A-share wine listed companies. In addition, driven by the significant increase in the average sales price of wine, the gross profit margin of *ST Mogao wine increased by 11.24% year-on-year.
Due to the large fluctuations in the revenue and gross profit margin of *ST Mogao's business, the Shanghai Stock Exchange proposed in the inquiry letter of the annual report that it was required to disclose whether the customer and supplier structure in 2023 has changed significantly, whether there is an affiliated relationship with the company and its controlling shareholder, as well as the amount of sales and purchases, the settlement cycle and method, etc.
In addition, the Shanghai Stock Exchange also required *ST Mogao to quantitatively analyze the specific reasons for the significant changes in revenue and gross profit margin based on the cost structure, competitiveness of main products, market share, etc. of different products during the reporting period.
In 2023, among the five A-share wine listed companies, the average sales price of CITIC Niya's wine is the highest, at 51,155.86 yuan/thousand liters, a year-on-year increase of 13.48%, which is mainly due to the increase in its high-end wine revenue.
According to the data of CITIC Niya's 2023 annual report, its high-end wine revenue was 115 million yuan in the current period, a year-on-year increase of 73.18%. The revenue of medium and low-grade liquor was 81 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.97%.
The highest wine sales price is Zhongxin Niya, but the highest gross profit margin is Changyu A.
According to the annual report, the sales volume of Changyu A wine in 2023 will be 95,557 tons, which is about 6 times the combined sales volume of the other four A-share wine listed companies. In the current period, the gross profit margin of Changyu A wine was 59.25%, a year-on-year increase of 3.74%.
It should be noted that in 2011, the wine industry was in a period of rapid growth. At that time, the gross profit margin of Changyu A wine reached 76.12%. However, the intensification of competition in the industry and the decline in revenue scale have restricted the growth of Changyu A wine's gross profit margin.
Benefiting from the growth of revenue from high-end products, in 2023, the average sales price of Weilong wine will increase by 5.05% year-on-year.
Weilong's 2023 annual report disclosed that in the current period, its low-end and terminal product revenue fell by 25.47% and 21.9% year-on-year respectively, but the revenue of high-end products increased by 9.14% year-on-year.
Changyu A made it clear that in 2024, it will be difficult for the industry to get out of the trough
In terms of the extended cycle, among the 5 A-share listed wine companies, except for Changyu A, the remaining 4 have been losing money for many years, which is due to the long-term downturn in the wine industry.
In the annual report, citing data from the website of the National Bureau of Statistics and the website of the General Administration of Customs, the domestic wine production in mainland China will be 143,000 kiloliters, a decrease of 486,000 kiloliters from 2018. In the same period, the mainland imported 249,600 kiloliters of wine, a decrease of 480,400 kiloliters from 2018.
In recent years, the wine industry has continued to decline, and many companies have not been able to wait for the market to recover.
According to the data disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, the number of domestic wine enterprises above designated size (with an annual income of more than 20 million yuan) will be 104, a decrease of 15 from 2022 and a decrease of 140 from 2017.
Under the continuous involution of the industry, A-share listed wine companies are also facing different difficulties.
Due to the high inventory, in 2022, CITIC Niya will make an inventory of 863 million yuan, resulting in a significant shrinkage of assets. Today, the higher inventory is still the sword of Damocles hanging over its head.
Financial data show that in 2023, CITIC Niya will have an inventory of 851 million yuan and a revenue of only 212 million yuan, which is difficult to digest the existing inventory in the short term.
In addition, judging from the production and sales volume disclosed by CITIC Niya in 2023, in the current period, it produced a total of 10,802.14 thousand liters of finished liquor and raw liquor, but the sales volume was only 3,900.95 thousand liters, and the inventory increased to 116,471.1 thousand liters, mainly raw liquor. The large amount of raw liquor produced every year may lead to the continuous growth of CITIC Niya's inventory.
Wine is different from liquor in that the longer the original wine is stored, the worse the taste and the lower the value. If CITIC Niya is unable to effectively handle inventory, there may be a risk of re-asset impairment of inventory.
How to control the debt ratio at a safe level has become an urgent problem for ST Tonglu to solve.
In the five years since 2019, ST Tonglu has been in a state of loss for four years, with a total loss of about 220 million yuan.
Under the continuous loss, the debt ratio of ST Tonglu has risen rapidly. According to financial information, in 2023, ST Tonglu's debt ratio will be 65.57%, an increase of 27.94% from 2020.
The wine industry has been in a downward trend for many years, and the domestic wine production capacity has fallen to 143,000 kiloliters, will it usher in a bottoming out rebound in 2024?
In this regard, Changyu A is not optimistic. In its 2023 annual report, it proposed that in 2024, affected by the increase in uncertainty caused by various factors, people's consumption sentiment will be more cautious, coupled with the squeeze of other strong wines, it will be very difficult for domestic wine consumption to grow.
Trainee Editor: Li Wenyu | Reviewer: Chen Xiaojuan | Review: Li Zhen | Supervisor: Wan Junwei