The data in this column is summarized by the Xinfadi wholesale market data statistics department after daily statistics of hundreds of merchants in Xinfadi, which is exclusively published in Green Squirrel and reported to the Market Information Department of the Ministry of Agriculture at the same time.
Pork price movements
In the early part of last week (March 30-April 5), the average wholesale price of white pigs continued to rise, and the latter part of the week adjusted slightly.
Comparison chart of the average price trend of white pigs from the end of March to the beginning of April 2024 and the same period of the previous year (unit: yuan/kg)
On April 5, the average wholesale price of white pigs in Xinfadi market was 18.30 yuan/kg, down 1.08% from 18.50 yuan/kg in the same period last week (March 29), up 3.10% from 17.75 yuan/kg in the same period last month (March 5), and up 9.91% from 16.65 yuan/kg in the same period last year. Week-on-week decline, month-on-month increase, year-on-year sharp increase. Prices rose 5.11% year-on-year at the end of last week, and the year-on-year increase was amplified at the end of last week.
Last week, the average daily listing volume of white pigs decreased slightly from the previous month, and there were still slaughterhouses that could not enter the market on time, which affected the listing volume. Due to the uncertainty of whether the white pigs of each slaughterhouse can enter the market for a period of time after the holiday, the price fluctuations are violent, and the overall price is slightly higher than that of other wholesale markets in Beijing, which also diverts some customers to other wholesale markets to purchase, so that the sales of white pigs in the market have also declined. In this case, the price trend of white pigs in the Xinfadi market deviates from the actual supply and demand. However, the month-on-month decline in the average daily market volume in the Xinfadi market does not mean that the sales volume of other wholesale markets in Beijing are also declining, on the contrary, the sales of white pigs in Beijing are actually gradually recovering, and only the sales of white pigs in the Xinfadi market are not as good as in previous weeks.
In recent times, there is a bullish expectation in the farm, because there is data showing that the number of fertile sows has been slightly lower than the ideal standard value, and the price of binary sows and weaned piglets have risen, which means that the process of de-capacity of woolly pigs has been initially completed, and the production capacity has bottomed out and will gradually recover. However, if you calmly look at the trend of the later supply of pigs, in fact, it is still in a relatively sufficient state, this round of capacity adjustment, in fact, is relatively mild, the production capacity has not appeared to hurt the fluctuations, even if the price rebounds in the later stage, the strength of the rebound is relatively mild, and this rebound is partly based on the expected pull.
It has been said before that in the last 2 to 3 years, there has been an expected increase in meat prices, and the rise was relatively firm at that time, but after 1 to 2 months, meat prices will fall again, and the pace of decline is also relatively firm. Although it has been driven by expectations in the near future, the trend of pig prices is still a little blank, and there are slightly more wait-and-see components. Pig prices and meat prices are in a state where they can neither rise nor fall, showing a state of stalemate and slight adjustment.
Egg price movements
Last week, egg prices stabilized and declined.
Comparison chart of the average price of eggs from the end of March to the beginning of April 2024 and the same period of the previous year (unit: yuan/kg)
On April 5, the average wholesale price of eggs in Xinfadi market was 6.89 yuan/kg, down 2.27% from 7.05 yuan/kg in the same period last week (March 29), down 3.50% from 7.14 yuan/kg in the same period last month (March 5), and down 30.75% from 9.95 yuan/kg in the same period last year (April 5). The week-on-week decline was modest, the month-on-month increase was significant, and the year-on-year decline was sharply. Last week, it fell by 31.95% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline narrowed slightly last week.
Last week, egg prices hovered at a low level, the main reason is that the supply is greater than the demand, on the one hand, the supply capacity is gradually increasing, and a number of new chickens have recently entered the production period, and the number of small eggs on the market has increased significantly;
Egg production capacity is gradually increasing, mainly because the capacity expansion of large-scale chicken farms is relatively fast, and the development of the laying hen breeding industry in the direction of collectivization and scale is accelerating, which further consolidates the situation of sufficient supply. Therefore, under the condition that the demand is in the off-season, the state of low egg prices is inevitable.
In the later period, there will be some fluctuations in egg prices, and there will be some rebounds, but on the whole, egg prices will basically maintain a state of small fluctuations and repeated adjustments.
Vegetable price movements
Last week, the overall price of vegetables slowly retreated.
Comparison chart of the average wholesale price trend of vegetables from the end of March to the beginning of April 2024 and the same period of the previous year (unit: yuan/kg)
On April 5, the weighted average price of vegetables in Xinfadi market was 3.25 yuan/kg, down 2.69% from 3.34 yuan/kg in the same period last week (March 29), and down 10.22% from 3.62 yuan/kg in the same period last year. It was down slightly week-on-week and sharply year-on-year. At the end of last week, prices fell by 11.41% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline narrowed slightly last week.
Last week, the overall price of vegetables continued to decline, of which the price rebounded slightly in the early part of the week, and the price decline was slightly more pronounced in the later part of the week, so that the week-on-week still showed a slight decline.
At present, the supply of vegetables has entered the stage of transformation of production area and mode of production, a variety of vegetables have entered the process of supply chain convergence, some shelf-stable vegetables, including winter storage vegetables, are being replaced by new vegetables; the supply of some fresh and tender vegetables has moved north from the south of the Yangtze River to the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River; and the fresh and tender small varieties of vegetables produced in the cold shed are replacing the greenhouse vegetables. The connection process is generally smooth, and the supply capacity of follow-up vegetables is generally sufficient, which is why the overall price of vegetables is still steadily declining.
Normally, the price of new vegetables is generally higher than that of stored vegetables, the price of new potatoes is higher than that of old potatoes, and the price of new Chinese cabbage is higher than that of storage vegetables. But there is also the opposite, such as new onions are slightly less expensive than old ones. Similarly, after the production area moves north, the transportation distance is shortened, the cost of transportation and preservation decreases, and the price of vegetables in the north will be lower than that of vegetables in the south, such as the price of lettuce fell last week, mainly because the number of lettuce in Shandong and Tianjin has increased, and the price is significantly lower than that of lettuce in Zhejiang and Fujian. But there is also the opposite situation, for example, Hubei Chinese cabbage, cabbage is produced in the open field, after the gradual withdrawal of Hubei vegetables, the vegetables produced in the cold shed in the northern production area are higher than the price of open field vegetables. When Sichuan tomatoes were removed from the Beijing market, the price of tomatoes produced in the northern greenhouse or cold shed was higher than that in Sichuan. Therefore, in the process of changing the place of origin, not all vegetable prices will fall, but some will rise slightly, and the price trend of each vegetable is not the same. However, due to the fact that the supply of vegetables has been converted from the winter mode to the spring mode, the overall price of vegetables will gradually decline, and the price is still in the seasonal decline range, so the overall price of vegetables continued to decline last week, although the price decline is not obvious, but the downward trend is relatively obvious.
In a short period of time, there is basically no shortage of varieties in the market, and there is no vegetable whose price will suddenly skyrocket, on the contrary, there will be a part of the vegetable that is concentrated on the market, and it will be difficult to sell in a short period of time. For example, the price of celery is relatively high in early spring, and the number of seedlings has increased in the areas of subsequent planting; Chinese cabbage is worthless in autumn and winter, the planting area of Chinese cabbage in spring has been compressed, and the land for reducing Chinese cabbage has the phenomenon of expanding the lettuce, which may be manifested in the later supply stage, even if there is a phenomenon of difficulty in selling individual varieties in a short time, the duration will not be too long, and the phenomenon of difficulty in selling will not be too serious.
Subsequently, the price of some vegetables will continue to decline, and the price of some vegetables will decline slowly, and the price of some vegetables will rebound in a short time. The reason for this situation is the magnitude of the adjustment of the planting structure and the factors of weather changes. Now it seems that the impact of these factors on prices is relatively modest, and there will not be too much volatility. In the later period, the "overall price of vegetables will still show a steady and declining trend, and it will still be in the seasonal decline range".
Contributed by Xinfadi Market Statistics Department
Editor / Zhang Mingxuan
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