Recently, Israel unexpectedly launched a ground raid targeting the Iranian embassy in Syria, a move that killed many people. Fortunately, Iran's ambassador to Syria was not in the embassy at the time and escaped. Originally, Iran's strategy was to stand behind and rely primarily on Hamas, supplemented by the support of Allah and the Houthis, to suppress Israel while avoiding direct conflict with the United States and Israel.
But now the situation has changed, and Iran has no choice but to end up.
Israel, on the other hand, has chosen to act directly against targets outside Iran's borders. There are indeed some anomalies:
First, although Israel has often carried out attacks on Iranian military targets in Syria for a long time in the past, it has rarely chosen embassies as targets, because embassies have the right to be "treated" as the territory of the sending country.
[Israel attacks Iranian embassy in Syria]
Second, the Israeli forces are fighting fiercely in Gaza, and although the Israeli army has a clear advantage, the urban guerrilla warfare, the dense population and construction, and the pressure of public opinion from the international community still firmly hold the Israeli army back. However, after Israel chooses to attack the Iranian embassy directly, the possibility of Iran counterattacking Israel is very high, and it is likely to force Israel to face a two-front war situation, so Israel's move can be said to be a sword sidetrack.
But if you analyze it carefully, it actually makes sense for Israel, which is suffering from internal and external troubles.
First of all, after this incident, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not choose to cool down the situation, but continued to provoke Iran, warning it not to act rashly, otherwise it will suffer a larger blow, adding another fire to the current situation. It is not difficult to see that Israel is determined to force Iran to go to war.
But in Gaza, Israel's progress has not been smooth. Recently, the United Nations Human Rights Council adopted a resolution on Gaza, which condemns the Israeli army for "war crimes" and "crimes against humanity" in Gaza, and demands that Israel bear the corresponding responsibility. After the complete loss of moral support, the Israeli army then withdrew most of its ground forces from southern Gaza, leaving only one brigade.
Second, just as Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria, tens of thousands of Israelis demonstrated against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and demanded that the Israeli government immediately reach a ceasefire agreement with Hamas and send the hostages home. During this period, another car lost control and crashed into the crowd, injuring five people, and the scene was very chaotic.
[Israeli people protest against Netanyahu]
In this case, Netanyahu can only choose to take the risk, drag Iran into the water, and then escalate the war to tie the United States into the war.
Therefore, the current situation is very embarrassing for Iran, as the leading big brother of the Shiite arc, if you swallow your anger, you will not be able to get over the face, but if you want to retaliate against Israel, the reciprocal attack is actually just a strategy, why do you say that?
Think about it, if Iran directly attacks Israel itself, it will inevitably lead to a full-scale Iran-Israel war and eventually draw the United States into the war. However, the US military cannot let the situation expand, and it will inevitably resolve the conflict in the shortest possible time, and this is exactly what Israel is most willing to see, with the help of the United States to get out of itself. And for Iran, it could also lead to the collapse of the current regime, which is not a wise move.
[Houthis insist on attacking Israeli ships in the Red Sea]
There is also a second option, which is to follow Israel's example and attack Israeli embassies and consulates abroad, but this option may be very difficult for Iran, because it is very difficult to choose the target, and it is not only Israel that is involved in attacking Israeli offices abroad, but also the countries concerned.
So the best option, in fact, is to drag. Iran can step up efforts to clean up the anti-Iranian forces supported by Israel's Mossad and the U.S. military, as well as provide weapons and equipment to Houthis and other groups in Iraq and Syria to deplete Israel's combat power. Or deploy military forces on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights to create an offensive façade to drag down Israeli ground and air power and ease pressure on Hamas and Allah. If we can set up a situation to shoot down the Israeli warplane, it will be the greatest achievement.
In short, Iran's determination will be a decisive factor in how far this crisis can go. I have to say that after 2023, Israel has finally shed the cloak of wisdom, kindness, and pathos, lost its carefully crafted character as a victim of racism, and revealed its true face of cruelty and arrogance, which is the ultimate mockery of history and the greatest correction in history.