The performance background is insufficient, can Shan Weijun succeed in the IPO of Aunt Shanghai?

The Hong Kong stock IPO in the milk tea circle is just raising a table of mahjong, but Shan Weijun may not be a big winner.

On February 14, the fifth day of the first month of the first month of the first year of Jiachen, when everyone was still greeting each other and welcoming the God of Wealth, Shanghai Auntie also officially submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, planning to be listed on the main board, with CITIC Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd., Haitong International Capital Co., Ltd. and Oriental Capital (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. as joint sponsors.

Uncle Yi, who had just returned from the Temple of Wealth and was preparing for Valentine's Day, heard the news, pinched his fingers, tilted his head, and said to the market value: "I went out today and looked at the old imperial calendar, and the colors that should not be used today are green, cyan, green, and emerald green. ”

The picture comes from the company's official website

The picture comes from Hancheng Life

Whether it's nonsense or not is another matter, but what the market value Jun wants to say is that the IPO of this year's milk tea circle is very hot, and last year's tea Baidao, plus, shareholders and Michelle Bingcheng, now there is Aunt Shanghai, but for Aunt Shanghai's Shan Weijun, this table of mahjong, his foundation may be a little weak.

The performance background is insufficient

Aunt Shanghai, the start is Shanghai, but the main battlefield is in the north. The prospectus is quacky for the company's business.

The market value is not detailed, so I will show you the picture directly

Image from the prospectus

To briefly explain, Shanghai Auntie emphasized the following business highlights in the prospectus: North China + mid-price + ready-made No. 1 (so many combinations are precisely defined in order to highlight the "first"), quarterly repurchase rate of 41.3%, number of registered members of 71.9 million+, city coverage No. 1, China's ready-made tea shop brand ranked fourth......

However, compared with Gu Ming and Mixue Bingcheng, which submitted their IPOs before the holiday, Aunt Shanghai's background is not enough in terms of the number of stores, revenue and profits.

According to the prospectus, the number of Shanghai Auntie stores is 7,297, the proportion of franchised stores is 99.3%, and the number of stores in cities below the third tier accounts for 49%, and in 2021, 2022 and the first nine months of 2023, the company will achieve operating income of 1.640 billion yuan, 2.199 billion yuan and 2.535 billion yuan respectively. In 2022 and the first nine months of 2023, the company's operating income increased by 34.0% and 54.1% year-on-year respectively, and net profit increased by 79.2% and 188.7% year-on-year respectively. The corresponding net profit was 83 million yuan, 149 million yuan and 324 million yuan respectively. The increase was mainly due to the expansion of its store network. It is worth mentioning that the GMV of Shanghai Auntie in the first nine months of 2023 was 7.183 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.7%.

In 2021, 2022 and the first nine months of 2023, Gu Ming's revenue will be 4.384 billion yuan, 5.559 billion yuan and 5.571 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 23.992 million yuan, 372 million yuan and 1.002 billion yuan respectively. During the same period, Gu Ming's adjusted profit (non-IFRS measure) was approximately 770 million yuan, 788 million yuan and 1.045 billion yuan, respectively.

The prospectus of Mixue Bingcheng is even more eye-catching, with more than 25,000 stores nationwide, covering 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government), and is actively exploring overseas markets. For the whole year of 2022 and the first nine months of 2023, the store network of Mixue Bingcheng achieved terminal retail sales of approximately RMB30 billion and RMB37 billion, and achieved revenue of RMB13.6 billion and RMB15.4 billion, respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.2% and 46.0%. For the full year of 2022 and the first nine months of 2023, the net profit of Mixue Bingcheng was 2.0 billion yuan and 2.5 billion yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and 51.1%. Mixue Bingcheng continued to generate net cash flow from operating activities, with $1.7 billion, $2.4 billion and $3.1 billion in 2021, $2.4 billion in 2022 and $3.1 billion in the first nine months of 2023.

The picture comes from Zhida Data

Data from research institutions also show that for the same theme, Shanghai Auntie is not very attractive and storytelling to investors.

For Shanghai aunts, in the market competition, they are not only facing the encirclement and suppression of the "bloody battle to the end" of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange before and after the tea Baidao, Gu Ming, and Mixue Bingcheng, but also facing the impact of brands such as Shuyi Burning Fairy Grass, which is even more difficult to break out of the encirclement in a short time.

In addition, in terms of valuation, Shanghai Auntie has completed a total of 4 rounds of financing since its establishment, including 75 million yuan in Series A financing, 53 million yuan in Series A+, 230 million yuan in Series B, and 120 million yuan in Series C financing at 50 yuan per share in February this year. Based on this calculation, the valuation is about 5 billion yuan.

As a "tea friend" at the same table, Chabaidao is valued at 18 billion yuan after a new round of financing. The valuation of Mixue Bingcheng is more than 60 billion yuan, the valuation of ancient tea is about 40 billion yuan, and the valuation of tea and joy is 13 billion yuan, and the valuation of Shuyi Burning Fairy Grass is about 10 billion yuan, and even the valuation of the overlord tea with just over 1,000 stores has reached more than 3 billion yuan.

After all, after multiple rounds of financing, the purpose of capital is to make money, or at least open an exit channel, and it is not necessarily necessary to use milk tea to offset the investment funds in the end.

But after all, the model of Shanghai aunt is mainly to join, and milk tea does not belong to the company in essence, but to the franchisee.

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