After Sora was released, I started to worry about losing my job

At first, I thought that AI could replace some physical jobs, but after the release of ChatGPT, it replaced some mental jobs, and the anxiety of "AI replacing humans" spread in all walks of life. After the release of Sora a few days ago, it can even replace the work of the product, so what do we need to do?

I recently read a McKinsey report that said that by 2030, AI will replace the jobs of more than 100 million Chinese.

Image source: McKinsey Report

Not to mention whether this prediction is accurate, but looking at the speed at which generative AI is being developed today, even I am starting to think about the question: Will product managers be replaced by AI one day?

You might say, "Isn't product manager a creative job?"

Even Altman, the founder of OpenAI, said that creative work and interpersonal communication work cannot be replaced by AI.

To be honest, that's what I used to think, but after Sora's release, I started to doubt it.

Let's sort out what core competencies a good B-end product manager needs?

In fact, there are only 3 points:

The ability to learn the B-end system, the ability to learn business knowledge, and the ability to communicate with customers and R&D

Let's start with points 1 and 2.

In our previous cognition, although it is generally recognized that AI has a strong learning ability, AI is better at storing and retrieving knowledge mechanically, unable to make logical deductions, and has no decision-making ability.

Even ChatGPT, which became popular last year, is essentially just "generating the next word based on the previous word", which is very different from human cognitive ability.

But if you look at the newly launched Sora, its core competency is no longer simple video generation.

Behind the video that is enough to "confuse the real with the fake", it is the AI that has mastered the physical rules of the real world through a lot of learning!

For example, the water surface on the street dynamically reflects the reflection of people, and it is difficult to generate videos so accurately without understanding the principles of optics.

You might say: AI is just imitation, but it doesn't have the ability to think like a human.

In fact, isn't the process of babies learning the laws of the world a process of imitation?

There is no essential difference between the learning process of AI and the learning process of humans!

Others say that Sora has just mastered some simple rules of physics.

However, for a "monster" like AI, as long as it breaks through from 0 to 1, it can complete its evolution at a speed that is difficult for humans to achieve.

At the same time, the barriers to B-end business are not as high as imagined.

Not only is there a pattern to follow, but the logic is not complicated - trust me - as long as there is enough data to feed the AI, it can outperform most product managers in a short period of time!

Let's talk about the third point, the ability to communicate with customers and R&D.

In a short period of time, it may be difficult for offline communication work to be replaced by AI, after all, AI cannot take the initiative to go to customer sites to complete research work like humans.

But here's the problem: as long as the AI is powerful enough, the customer will be able to design the product themselves!

In other words, AI will reshape the product design chain, remove the non-essential product development links in the middle, and directly assist customers to generate the products they want!

If you think this is impossible, then you can think about today's no-code products, many users are already able to build apps by themselves.

So, as long as the AI is powerful enough, it's entirely possible for customers to get rid of their dependence on product managers.

Of course, if AI does evolve to that point, not only product managers, but most human jobs will probably be unemployed.

So the "good news" is that it will take time for AI to develop.

Moreover, the timing of AI disruption in different industries and positions will be very different.

For example, although AI has a strong learning ability, the premise is that there is a large amount of high-quality online data.

The main data in the B-end field are offline.

Even if the online degree of B-end business will become higher and higher in the future, it will still face the problem of "insufficient data volume in vertical fields" for a long time!

After all, AI learning relies heavily on high-quality, large amounts of data, and humans are more cognitively capable of "small data" (at least for now).

In addition, compared with the C-end business, the B-end business links are complex and require high accuracy of decision-making, and at least for a certain period of time, AI can still only play the role of assisting product managers.

Therefore, in the era of AI, the life cycle of B-end product managers is still relatively long.

However, looking at Sora's current performance, I don't dare to predict or underestimate the speed of AI's progress.

So I still believe that sooner or later, AI will replace the job of a product manager.

Of course, even if this incident finally happens, the first thing to be replaced by AI is the "prototype".

That is, there is no need to communicate with customers, and there is no need to have in-depth knowledge of the vertical industry (especially offline knowledge), but only a "functional designer" who is responsible for implementation.

In fact, there is no need to wait for AI to replace, and those product managers who have no industry barriers and cannot gain insight into customer needs are also easy to be eliminated.

There are actually many product managers in this category.

For example, many G-end product managers do projects that are face-saving projects, and there are no industry barriers in themselves.

There are also many outsourcing product managers, who have tasted all the ways in every industry and every field, and have not formed their own core competitiveness.

Even the internal product managers of many enterprises, who are nominally product managers, are actually doing operational work.

They are actually the easiest to be replaced by AI.

So, even in the era of AI, you will find:

Product managers who lack core competencies will be the first to be eliminated.

And excellent product managers, even if the position is replaced by AI in the end, with their deep industry accumulation and customer communication skills, there is still a great chance of a gorgeous turnaround.

After all, while AI replaces "old jobs", it also creates "new jobs".

With the help of AI, these new jobs will not only be easier and more decent, but also pay more.

In fact, with every technological advancement, the overall well-being of mankind is constantly increasing.

Therefore, what we really need to do is not to be afraid of AI, let alone resist AI, but to strive to become a winner in the AI era.

Columnist

This article was originally published by Everyone is a Product Manager and is prohibited from reprinting without permission.

The title image is from Unsplash and is licensed under CC0.