#精品长文创作季#
How terrifying will Chinese technology be in 2024?
At least you can see these four grand scenes:
One is that China's Chang'e-6 will dig up the far side of the moon and return to Earth to set a record, while looking forward to whether the United States will be cheeky enough to ask for lunar soil again.
The second is the outbreak of China's sodium battery, breaking the dream of overtaking in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea.
The third is: China's commercial aerospace revenge on the United States, 40 years ago, the United States sanctioned China's commercial aerospace, but cultivated the world's largest competitor, and 40 years later, China's commercial aerospace comeback, is to challenge the United States.
If the fourth-generation nuclear power technology is the hope of nuclear energy, then China is the dawn of the world's nuclear power plants.
The story here is quite exciting, and today Panda will introduce it to you one by one.
First up is the first: Chang'e-6
In 2024, China's aerospace industry will make history again, and this time it will be even more significant.
Chang'e-6 is expected to land on the far side of the moon in May this year, and will also return to Earth with lunar soil on the far side of the moon.
If it goes well, then this time it will not only break the world record, but it will also make NASA very passive.
Why?
First of all, China went to the far side of the moon this time, not alone, but with friends. Accompanying our Chang'e-6 mission was the ESA's negative ion detector, France's nitrogen detector, Italy's laser angle mirror, and Pakistan's CubeSat.
This is very embarrassing for NASA.
As early as 2020, NASA formulated a return to the moon activity, but they themselves did not have that confidence, so they came up with the Artemis Agreement, using the division of lunar resources to bind allies and let them help contribute money and efforts.
These allies saw that the United States had brought meat and hurried over to drink some soup.
So, ah, a huge alliance was formed to land on the moon.
Not to mention the loss of resources, the United States has even failed several missions to the moon: First, the rockets were forcibly launched with the risk of leakage. Then the moon landing was postponed, and even the Peregrine lunar probe crashed in the Pacific Ocean.
Not to mention landing on the moon, they can't go to the moon to dig the soil, so what resources are they carving?
You've got to go to the moon to get points, right?
However, it is a pity that the United States has not yet been able to make a landing on the back of the moon.
Because the moon always has its back to the earth, there is no signal there, and it is very difficult to land here, and you need to build a relay signal station.
In 2018, China launched the relay satellite "Queqiao-1", with the help of this satellite, we solved the problem of data and communication transmission on the far side of the moon, and allowed Chang'e-4 to make a soft landing on the far side of the moon.
This time, in order to successfully complete the Chang'e-6 mission, China Aerospace plans to launch the "Queqiao 2" in February to ensure stable communication.
Other countries do not have such relay satellites.
If they want to land on the far side of the moon, they will have to turn to China, including NASA.
Some friends may have doubts, the United States has sanctioned China's aerospace, will they still ask China for help?
The answer is yes.
Originally, I didn't believe it, but NASA was willing to pull down their faces, and they not only asked us for lunar soil, but also made a request to share the Queqiao satellite.
China went along with the boat and acceded to their request.
This decision is very bold.
At that time, the United States had been hyping up China's unwillingness to cooperate in the moon landing, so it deliberately made requests for sharing lunar soil and relay satellites, with the purpose of trying to smear the image of China's aerospace industry in the world.
China's agreement to share the Queqiao satellite this time proves that our pattern is big, and aerospace should be a win-win cooperation, rather than a small alliance like the United States.
And it can also make our aerospace invincible.
What does that mean?
Think about it, if the US probe had landed on the far side of the moon with the help of China's Magpie Bridge, then China's contribution would certainly not be small? If the US landing was not successful, wouldn't it prove that China's lunar landing technology has led the world?
In other words, if we let go of the Queqiao sharing rights, no matter what the outcome of the US moon landing is, NASA will already be left behind.
Of course, they still have a choice, that is, they don't have to build it themselves, but this will seriously slow down their moon landing process, and if you want to divide the lunar resources, you have to dig up the soil first, or log in to it, right?
And if these countries want to cooperate with China, they have to reveal some details about the rocket launch and the probe registration, right? We can also learn some different technologies from it.
In short, China's opening of the Queqiao is something NASA did not expect.
But what makes NASA even more embarrassed is that if China gets the lunar soil back again, will they share the lunar soil request with China again?
To know the lunar soil retrieved by Chang'e-5 last time, the United States openly asked us to share that the lunar soil on the far side of the moon is even more important this time.
Prior to this, there have been many experiences of collecting lunar soil in human history, but each time it was on the front side and only China has been to the back side once, so this lunar soil research is of great significance.
If we can study it, we will have a better understanding of the composition and structure of the moon.
In addition to this, since the Moon is affected by the tidal gravity of the Earth, it can only face away from the Earth head-on.
This means that the far side of the moon is the farthest distance from the earth, and it is the least disturbed by the earth's magnetic field, and if a deep space exploration base can be established here, then it will be more conducive to human exploration of deep space.
Therefore, exploration of the far side of the moon has always been an indispensable part of the lunar plans of various countries.
My guess is that NASA will most likely make a request, whether it is a genuine desire to study lunar soil or to block us, it is a matter of moving their mouths to them.
But we will most likely refuse, after all, the United States is still unilaterally sanctioning China's aerospace, and we are not obliged to provide free lunar soil.
Besides, if the relay satellites are provided by us, and the lunar soil is still provided by us, then where is NASA to put face?
Therefore, in 2024, we can watch a good show, and I wish Chang'e-6 all the best.
Then let's talk about sodium batteries: In 2024, China's sodium batteries will completely extinguish the overtaking dreams of Europe, America, Japan and South Korea
Here's the thing: since China's lithium battery dominates the world, Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea are anxious, and they have used various means to get rid of our industrial chain. For example, directly grabbing lithium resources around the world, as well as betting on next-generation batteries such as sodium batteries and solid-state batteries, preparing to overtake in corners, and so on.
Both of these hands are set up to curb China's lithium batteries.
The emergence of China's sodium battery has broken these two dilemmas at once.
Let's take lithium resources as an example: its content on the earth is only 0.0065%, and it is very unevenly distributed, most of it is in Africa and South America, and very little in China.
Therefore, when Chinese companies are researching lithium batteries, they will purchase lithium ore abroad.
As a result, around 2020, the United States suddenly tried to cut off the lithium mines favored by Chinese companies many times, and Chinese companies were forced to buy lithium resources at a premium in order not to be stuck.
So a lithium resource offensive and defensive war broke out.
In the past few years, the battle for lithium has been fought from Africa to South America, and Europe, Japan and South Korea have slowly joined in, directly causing the price of lithium resources to soar dozens of times.
In fact, the United States and Europe do not have a lithium battery industry at all, Japan and South Korea also rely on China for raw materials, and they are also not as dependent on lithium resources as China.
To put it bluntly, it is hoped to cut off the upstream resources of lithium batteries in China to improve the voice of the battery industry.
It can be seen how tense the situation was at that time, and even BYD Wang Chuanfu publicly appealed: China should not change from being stuck in oil to being stuck in lithium resources.
This is the first barrier set by Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea on China's batteries, and the second line is to bet on the next generation of batteries, hoping to overtake in corners.
For example, the sodium battery, which was originally an obsolete battery, because its density is much less than that of lithium batteries, but in recent years, sodium batteries have suddenly become popular.
Mainly because it can be used as a supplement to lithium batteries, one is that its cost is lower: in 2022, the price of lithium metal is dozens or hundreds of times that of sodium metal, and the price of lithium batteries has decreased in the past two years, but the gap between the two is still not small.
The second is that it is safer, and it will be so easy to spontaneously combust and explode as lithium batteries. The third is good stability, even when driving in the north or cold places, its battery life can be maintained at a relatively high level.
In other words, sodium batteries can be an important supplement to lithium batteries.
Therefore, sodium batteries have become the key development objects of the battery industry in various countries around the world, with Toyota and Panasonic in Japan, the four major energy companies in Europe and the United States, as well as BYD and Ningwang in China, all of which are laying out sodium batteries.
The battle for sodium batteries has also broken out, especially in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea, if they can take the lead in completing the breakthrough, then it is really possible to have a lot of say in the battery industry.
What they didn't expect was that China's sodium battery quietly took the lead.
In 2023, Chinese companies such as BYD and CATL have successively released their own sodium battery technology, and in 2024, BYD will take the lead in building a sodium battery factory in Xuzhou.
Once China's industry achieves a breakthrough and enters an explosive period, it means that other countries will no longer have a chance to overtake.
More importantly, sodium batteries not only break the illusions of Europe and the United States, but also indirectly break the monopoly of Europe and the United States in battery resources.
The resources of sodium metal are very abundant, the content on the earth is more than 400 times that of lithium, in addition, its distribution is also very uniform, there are a lot of sodium metal in China, there is no need to worry about being stuck.
After sodium batteries and lithium batteries are shared, the demand for lithium batteries will decline, and it will be more difficult for the United States to get stuck in our battery industry.
One breakthrough, breaking two layers of blockade, is this the meaning of killing two birds with one stone??
Let me tell you a little more happy, China's battery industry has a scale and system effect, no matter what kind of battery, China has a layout, and it is saturated paving.
Therefore, every time the battery is faced with an update and iteration, the speed of our technology and industry update will only be faster, and in the future, batteries will also expand to various industries.
The future will definitely belong to China.
In fact, not only sodium batteries, but also the future of nuclear power belongs to China.
In 2024, China's fourth-generation nuclear power will usher in an explosion.
You may not believe it, but when it comes to fourth-generation nuclear power, China says second, and other countries dare not say first.
This is not a boast, but we have the confidence to say so: the world's first officially commercially operated high-temperature gas-cooled reactor in Shidao Bay, China, the world's only thorium-based molten salt experimental reactor in Wuwei, Gansu, China, and the world's most advanced sodium-cooled fast reactor in Xiapu, China.
In terms of fourth-generation nuclear power, China has three leading positions in the world.
You must know that there are only six internationally recognized fourth-generation nuclear power plants, and China alone has three of them, and as for the other three, I'm sorry, it's not that China doesn't take the lead, but the technology is too difficult, and there are no ready-made cases in the world.
Let me say that China's fourth-generation nuclear power plants are far ahead, and no one should object, right?
What is even more commendable is that China's fourth-generation nuclear power technology is exploding in a concentrated manner.
In 2023, the Shidaowan high-temperature gas-cooled reactor and the Wuwei thorium-based molten salt reactor have achieved historic breakthroughs, one is officially commercial operation, the other is formal experimental operation, and the second phase of the sodium-cooled fast reactor is already under construction and is expected to be completed in the next one or two years.
In other words: 2024 will be the year of the explosion of China's fourth-generation nuclear power plants.
But can you believe it?
China's fourth-generation nuclear power plant was actually promoted by the United States.
You heard it right, it was the United States that assisted.
In 2000, the U.S. Department of Energy organized a nuclear energy event, and invited eight major nuclear power countries, including Britain, France, Japan and South Korea, to participate.
At that time, the background was that nuclear power plants in European and American countries often had nuclear accidents and heavy losses, so they pinned their hopes on more advanced and safer fourth-generation nuclear power plants.
Therefore, this conference was specially organized to gather the wisdom of scientists from all over the world to study how the next generation of nuclear power plants should be developed. In the end, they decided to form a common international organization that would determine the technical course of future nuclear energy.
This organization is what would change the global nuclear energy landscape: the International Forum on Generation IV Nuclear Energy.
The six internationally recognized nuclear power technology routes are explored by them.
For European and American countries, this is a nuclear energy self-rescue strategy, but it is also a battle for the advance layout of the industry and the right to speak.
For example, the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor was a concept proposed by the Clinton Laboratory in 1947, the molten salt reactor was the first research project of the US Air Force in 1946, and the sodium-cooled fast reactor was designed and built by the Argonne National Laboratory in 1949.
Other reactors are similar.
Europe and the United States are leading in nuclear power technology, and when deciding the future nuclear energy technology route, other countries must follow the development of these technologies in order to integrate into the international community.
If the law of previous technology iteration is followed, European and American countries have a first-mover advantage, and it is likely that they will continue to monopolize the next generation of nuclear power technology.
But what they didn't expect was that there was a country that could complete the overtaking of the straights and do what Europe and the United States could not do.
That country is: China.
China only joined the fourth-generation nuclear energy organization in 2006, and its participation in the formulation of the course is limited, and the fourth-generation nuclear energy started decades behind the United States.
If the fourth-generation nuclear energy is compared to a game, then China has been left behind by Europe and the United States at the beginning.
But China has completed its greatest counterattack.
After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2012, other countries either stopped building nuclear power plants, or slowed down the research of fourth-generation nuclear power plants because of the difficulty, resulting in the failure to make breakthroughs in fourth-generation nuclear power plant technology.
Only China is the most determined: we have set a three-step nuclear power strategy of thermal reactor-fast reactor-nuclear fusion, so we have been working on technical research.
In 2006, the Shidaowan high-temperature gas-cooled reactor was listed as a national medium and long-term plan, and the construction officially began in 2012. In 2011, China launched special research on thorium-based molten salt reactors, and in 2018, China also began construction of experimental reactors, and now both Generation IV nuclear power plants are operational.
As for China's sodium-cooled fast reactor, it was approved by the State Council in 1992, officially started construction in 2020, and was connected to the grid for power generation in 2015.
However, because it belongs to the second step of the three steps of nuclear power: fast reactors, there are more difficulties that need to be tackled, so it is still in the process of breaking through.
Looking at the fourth-generation nuclear power plants, China has not only changed from a follower to a leader, but also has a very long-term plan to continue to make breakthroughs.
So when China made a breakthrough at the Fourth Generation Nuclear Energy Exhibition, scientists around the world were very excited, and they even openly expressed their willingness to fly to China to participate in scientific research activities.
I said: the fourth generation of nuclear power plants is the hope of nuclear energy, then China is the dawn of the world, right?
Of course, the final drama is commercial spaceflight.
In 2024, China's commercial space will take revenge on the United States.
Why is it revenge?
Everyone knows that the United States commercial space is very good, right, Musk's SpaceX company alone has sent 80% of the world's satellites and other payloads into space.
And that's not even counting other U.S. space companies.
It can be said that they have a monopoly on the global commercial space market.
But can you believe it? Forty years ago, China's commercial aerospace industry was also very good, and it almost broke the US space monopoly.
It all started in the 80s of the last century.
At that time, China had just begun reform and opening up, and the space sector was also actively transforming to the civilian market, so it announced that it would undertake international commercial space launch missions.
It just so happened that at that time, there were a number of accidents in the US aerospace industry one after another, the "Challenger" space shuttle exploded and crashed, and rockets such as Delta and Hercules also had major accidents.
The US rocket service was forced to stop and was unable to return to flight for a long time.
Coupled with the fact that rocket accidents in the United States are so frequent, other countries have questioned the safety of their rockets, so they began to look for alternatives.
China's commercial space industry has suddenly ushered in a great opportunity.
In order to seize this wealth and wealth, we gathered the efforts of all astronauts to develop the advanced Long March-2 bundle rocket, which was half the price lower than that of the United States, and successfully won the trust of other countries.
As a result, China's commercial aerospace has miraculously risen rapidly.
In the 1990s alone, we launched more than 10 commercial satellites with customers all over the world, not only developing countries such as Brazil and the Philippines, but also partners in Australia, Sweden and even the United States, including Warren Buffett and the famous Iridium satellite.
China's aerospace industry has become a hot new star in the world.
The U.S. aerospace industry felt a huge threat, and in order to curb the development of China's commercial spaceflight, they even started conspiracy theories that China had stolen American technology.
At that time, a congressman named Cox issued a more than 800-page report in Congress, the infamous "Cox Report", which contained "facts" about how China stole American technology, and also used a Chinese scientist as a scapegoat.
When everyone read the report, they were dumbfounded, because the "facts" in the report were all speculation, and there was no substantive evidence.
Because it was so outrageous, this incident caused a huge shock in American society, and even the US president and the secretary of energy personally stood up to question its authenticity.
It turned out to be an outright slander.
After two years of rigorous investigation, Cox still could not find any evidence that China was using American technology.
However, because the impact of this incident is too great, and it involves US aerospace science and technology, the United States still blacklists China and prohibits any spacecraft that uses US technology and raw materials from cooperating with China.
In order to completely block China's space flight, the United States does not allow any equipment to flow to China.
The sanctions are stricter than those of Huawei.
The internationalization of China's commercial space industry is almost locked, and only through customized satellites can it receive a few contracts sporadically.
But U.S. sanctions have also revolutionized the future of China's spaceflight.
China's aerospace has started the greatest counterattack in history: without equipment, we will build it ourselves, even if the screws are in our own hands, if there is no talent, we will build it ourselves, the old belt is in the middle, and the middle belt is less, and we have cultivated the world's largest number of aerospace talents with the lowest average age.
The United States jams other countries' raw materials, and China helps those countries produce satellites and then send them on.
China's aerospace industry has been forced to become independent step by step, not only breaking through the encirclement of the United States in terms of talents, equipment, and standards, but also creating a world-leading "zero" aerospace standard, which even the United States, which once looked down on us, is using this system.
China's aerospace counterattack has been counterattacked, but NASA of the United States has begun to turn to China for help, not only asking us for lunar soil, but also begging us to share the Queqiao satellite.
I have to say that the Chinese astronauts have fought a counterattack that makes our blood boil.
But the battle is far from over, and the United States remains the world's hegemon in commercial spaceflight.
In 2014, China issued an opinion paper encouraging private capital to develop space technology, which meant that China's commercial space industry made a comeback again.
The United States began the layout of commercial aerospace in 1980, and China lagged behind for more than 30 years, but this time our lineup is even larger, not only the national team, but also a huge civilian team: Blue Arrow Aerospace, Galaxy Aerospace, Galaxy Power, Tianbing Technology, Oriental Space and other enterprises have been established one after another.
In the following ten years, they developed rapidly with the advantage of a mature industrial chain and quickly blossomed and bore fruit.
In 2023, Blue Arrow Aerospace successfully launched Suzaku 2, which is the world's first liquid oxygen methane rocket to be successfully put into orbit, earlier than Starship, and in the same year, the Galaxy Aerospace Lingxi 03 satellite was successfully launched, which is aimed at Musk's "Starlink" satellite.
In January 2024, the Gravity 1 rocket of Vostok Space made its maiden flight at sea, and it is the world's largest solid launch vehicle.
In the same year, the "Tianhuo 12" engine developed by Tianbing was successfully tested, and this engine was aimed at SpaceX's Falcon 9 engine, and it is expected that the Tianlong 3 rocket will carry this engine for its first flight.
It can be said that China's commercial aerospace science and technology is ushering in a historic blowout.
In the future, it will once again hit the commercial space market monopolized by the United States.
The United States has created the most powerful enemy in history, and they are not only an avenger, but also a subversive, recreating the style of China's commercial space.
Let's bless them.