Instant noodles have risen to 5 yuan, and milk tea has dropped to 4 yuan, which is the same end in the era of shrinking consumption

Blue and white view of the property market

2024-05-23 18:35Posted in Henan real estate creators

Hello everyone, I'm Blue and White.

The price of instant noodles has risen again, and a senior instant noodle lover of mine expressed his anger.

After May Day this year, Master Kong issued a price adjustment notice to dealers, and the suggested retail price of barreled noodles rose from 4.5 yuan to 5 yuan, a barrel increased by 5 cents, and bagged noodles were adjusted from 2.8 yuan to 3 yuan, an increase of 2 cents.

This is the third time that Master Kong has raised the price.

The first time was in 2018, when the price of bag noodles increased by 2 yuan per box, and the price of barrel noodles increased by 1 yuan per box.

The second time is in the third quarter of 2021, from the tentative price increase of some products to the overall price increase, the price of barreled noodles increased from 4 yuan to 4.5 yuan, an increase of 12.5%, and the price of bag noodles was adjusted from 2.5 yuan to 2.8 yuan, an increase of 12%.

The posture of this price increase is a bit weird, the dealer said that the recommended retail price should be raised, the purchase price has not changed, and I don't know when it will change in the future, and the customer service of the online store said that I don't know, and the official did not respond positively.

You say you can go up, why do you have to scratch and retract the repeated temptation?

I want to go up and don't dare to say it clearly, it seems that the manufacturer has no confidence.

It stands to reason that commodities are in short supply, and prices will increase if they sell well.

The worse the instant noodles sell, the more fierce the rise.

Look at the nodes of the past few price increases.

From 2015 to 2017, China's instant noodle sales fell by nearly 6 billion packs, and Kangtong chose to raise prices in 2018.

In 2021, Master Kong's instant noodle revenue fell by 3.6%, and then the price increased.

In 2023, Master Kong's instant noodle business will drop by 2.84%, a unified shrinkage of 1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

After the disappearance of the epidemic hoarding dividend, takeaway dine-in has returned to normal, and there are more and more types of instant food with a variety of patterns, it is natural that instant noodles will not sell.

The market is shrinking, and there are three options in front of manufacturers: price reduction, maintenance of the original price, and price increase.

More than 10 years ago, it was the peak of instant noodle sales, and it sold well, because there was no choice.

There is no takeaway in 30 minutes, no logistics for next-day delivery, and no pre-made dishes.

What are they?

It is a commissary downstairs in the school dormitory, a small supermarket at the junction of urban and rural areas, and a green train mixed with foot odor, sweat smell, and noisy sounds. . . .

When the era of everyone staying at home is gone, ready-to-brew substitutes emerge one after another, whether it is maintaining the original price or reducing the price, it will not change the decline in demand for instant noodles.

To protect profits, price increases seem to be the rational choice.

The best reason is, of course: upgrading.

Package upgrade, cake upgrade, packaging upgrade...

The fist products of these companies, Master Kong is spicy and braised in the same way, there is a unified eggplant, the white elephant is the old hen noodle soup, and Jinmailang has a bag and a half.

Looking at the price alone, Master Kong is not the most expensive.

After upgrading, Master Kong has more than a dozen pieces of speed noodle restaurant, and White Elephant has coriander noodles and more than 20 pieces of crab roe noodles, and a gust of wind blows.

In addition to instant noodles, there are also pickled vegetables and melon seeds for casual snacks.

In the first two years, Fuling mustard rose from 5 cents to 2 yuan 5, in exchange for a double decline in revenue and net profit.

Cha Cha Gua Zi has raised the price of sunflower seed products twice in a row, and now the gross profit margin and revenue are also declining.

Manufacturers think that their products are just needed, and they always have to eat instant noodles when they work overtime, steamed rice always with mustard, and they always have to eat melon seeds when watching TV.

The brand dominance is also strong, the market share of the two instant noodles Kangtong exceeds 50%, and the Fuling family, which sells mustard, is dominant, and the melon seeds have not been able to challenge the position.

"Just need + no other semicolon", standing in the position of these FMCG manufacturers, at first glance, the logic of price increase is reasonable.

Since maintaining the original price or reducing the price cannot bring about an increase in share, of course, it is "the price increase is cool for a while, and the price increase has been cool." ”

No, no, no, it's not 10 years ago.

In front of the snail noodles with instant snail noodles and spicy noodles, is instant noodles just needed?

In front of the old godmother, beef sauce, and mushroom sauce, are you still in need of mustard?

In front of walnuts, almonds, pecans, and cashew nuts, are melon seeds still in demand?

Smith's Wealth of Nations contains a chapter on the natural and market prices of commodities, which states:

1. The magnitude of the price increase depends on the degree of lack of goods, the wealth of buyers and the degree of waste caused by the intensity of competition.

2. If the buyer's income is the same, the size of the lack of the product depends on the importance of the product to the buyer.

So, when the city is locked down or there is a famine, the price of the necessities of life is always very expensive.

This passage from hundreds of years ago is still true today.

In the home stage, instant noodles are almost equivalent to the "necessities" of rice, flour, grain and oil, but now they have become a dispensable "substitute".

It is true that reducing prices or maintaining the original price will not change the decline in aggregate demand.

But rising prices against the trend will only make demand shrink faster.

On one side, instant noodles have risen to 5 yuan and 1 bucket, and on the other side, milk tea has dropped to 4 yuan.

After May Day, the original price of Hey Tea's "Pure Green Tea Yanhou" is only 4 yuan a cup after using the coupon, and other teas, light milk teas, and thick milk tea series can be bought one and get one free.

I thought that Michelle's 4 pieces of lemonade were invincible in the world, but now even the milk tea has dried up to 4 pieces a cup.

You must know that in 2020, the unit price of Heytea, which is advertised as high-end, will reach 52 yuan to 56 yuan, far exceeding the average customer unit price of 35 yuan in the industry.

4 years ago, the price of instant noodles began to rise, and 4 years later, milk tea can be reduced to be cheaper than instant noodles, which is really the opposite.

The price war of new tea drinks is even more tragic than that of cars.

I'm confused when I go to the mall now, the first floor is full of show cars, the second and third floors are all deserted clothing stores, the fourth and fifth floors are full of all kinds of milk tea shops that I have never heard of, and there are more than a dozen on the first floor.

It used to be 30 cups at every turn, but now it is close to hand-to-hand combat, and the coupons that can't be used up are limited-time activities every day, and whoever doesn't drop to less than 10 yuan is a grandson.

I think the next step is to drink it for free in the name of attracting new users and collecting likes.

It is said that in China, no one dares to fight a price war with Hebei people, for Hebei e-commerce people, losing money is not anxious, no single is anxious, three trucks of goods a day, a car of compensation, a car of delivery, a car to do activities, a year of tens of millions, profit settlement is only 10,000, Yiwu merchants have to find Hebei small workshops to buy.

Now tea drinks are similar to this meaning, money can not be earned, popularity must be there, as long as you can find a fellow who is willing to join.

The price increase of instant noodles is very similar to liquor.

Mao Wuyang Fenlu did not leave a piece of armor for small and medium-sized liquor enterprises, and encroached on nearly half of the liquor market.

Boss Mao has the pricing power, and the second-tier wine companies have followed suit to raise prices, and their financial reports are getting better and better year by year.

At what cost?

The price is that the output has been halved in six years, the inventory is increasing year by year, the liquor market is shrinking, and the anxiety is eager to lure young people into the game.

Baijiu is still sought after by drunkards, and there is a moat of craftsmanship, taste, packaging, and story, but instant noodles do not.

The bottomless competition of new tea drinks is similar to that of cars.

There are now 3,172 brands and 418403 stores.

Last year, more than a dozen car companies went bankrupt, several 4S groups ran away, and more than 2,000 4S stores withdrew from the network.

However, there is a technological explosion in automobiles that brings about a huge differentiation compared to gasoline vehicles.

As for freshly made tea, the difficulty of replicating the taste is almost zero.

If there are no barriers, we can only rely on continuous store opening-joining-low prices to do large-scale.

Any brand that seems to be firmly at the top will be copied and surpassed by latecomers, and the price will only get cheaper and cheaper.

Zhongtai Yang Chang's report summarizes it very correctly: in the era of seller's market, retailers are positioned to serve merchants, and brands have absolute dominance in pricing.

After the rise of the buyer's voice, the deformed industrial structure has been adjusted, and the market has entered the buyer's era as commodities and retailers move towards surplus.

The lower transfer cost allows consumers to vote with their feet, forcing the upstream towards fierce price competition.

The value distribution of the industrial chain begins to favor consumers, which is a "downgrade" for businesses, but a real "upgrade" for consumers.

No matter how much high-end, national style, co-branded IP, positioning and tonality are useless, they all have to be a licking dog for consumers in the end.

The translocation of the right of voice between buyers and sellers is one thing, and we broaden the perspective, there are also reasons for the change of macro background.

According to the China Industrial Securities Macro Report, the decline in consumption mainly exists in two macro scenarios: social structural changes and economic transformation pains.

Unfortunately, the aging population and the transformation of real estate, now we have both of them.

The resulting consumption has both upgrades and downgrades, characterized by: essential consumption> optional consumption, affordable small shops> large department stores, home renovation and maintenance> the addition of furniture supplies.

Whether the price of instant noodles is rising or the price of milk tea is decreasing, one is to protect profits, and the other is to expand the scale.

The stage of market competition is different, and the response means of enterprises are also different.

But one thing is the same: instant noodles and milk tea both hide the grass snake gray line of shrinking demand for optional consumer goods in the context of changing times.

I'm Lan Bai, let's talk about this today, and we'll see you next time.

View original image 29K

• 

• 

• 

•