Text: Zhang Yu, Deputy Director and Chief Macro Analyst of Huachuang Securities Research Institute (License No.: S0360518090001)
Contact: Lu Yinbo (15210860866)
Key takeaways
Recently, the market has paid more attention to the infrastructure construction strength of 12 high-debt provinces, due to the late release of provincial infrastructure investment data and the lack of data in some provinces, this paper intends to observe from five indicators: 1) net financing of urban investment bonds: Since November 2023, the net financing of urban investment bonds in key provinces and cities has turned negative, and contributed more than half of the negative net financing growth of urban investment bonds in the country;
2) New special bonds: In the past three years, the proportion of issuance in key provinces and cities has remained stable at around 20%, and it has not been issued since 2024, and the marginal change is not yet known;
3&4) Planned investment in construction projects and construction projects: The trend of key provinces and cities in 2022 is consistent with the national trend, but the downward slope will be greater in 2023, and its growth rate will be lower than the national level by the end of 2023;
5) Cement output: The proportion of key provinces and cities is stable at around 40%, 40.9% in 2023, a slight decline from 41.8% in 2022, but the proportion in December 2023 is 41.3%, the highest value in the same period in the past five years.
Summary of the report
1. Background: The volume and growth rate of infrastructure in 12 provinces and cities
Based on the absolute amount in 2017 and the growth rate of previous years, the broad infrastructure investment of the 12 provinces and cities will account for about 26.3% of the country in 2022.
From January to November 2023, among the 12 key provinces and cities, the statistical bureaus of 8 provinces and cities released infrastructure investment data, and if the above-mentioned infrastructure volume is weighted, the weighted growth rate is 0.8%, which is lower than the national growth rate of 5.8% in the same period.
2. How to observe the changes in the growth rate of infrastructure in 12 provinces and cities?
(1) Indicator 1: Funding side: net financing of urban investment bonds
Judging from the past situation, the typical year of urban investment financing decline was 2018, when the net financing of urban investment bonds in 12 key provinces was -73.3 billion yuan, while the national rate was 276.6 billion yuan, with a ratio of -36%. In 2022 and 2023, the net financing of urban investment bonds in key provinces and cities will be negative and positive nationwide, with the ratio stable at -4%.
From the perspective of marginal changes, since November 2023, the net financing of 12 key provinces and cities and the whole country has turned negative, and the former can explain more than half of the latter.
(2) Indicator 2: Funding side: new special bonds
Judging from past data, the proportion of new special bonds in 12 provinces and cities in the country has been declining slowly since reaching a high of 23.3% in 2020, and the proportion has remained stable at around 20% in the past three years and 20.3% in 2023.
As of January 26, 2024, 12 key provinces and cities have no issuance plans, and marginal changes are not yet known.
(3) Indicator 3&4: Project side: the planned investment amount of newly started and construction projects
On the project side, pay attention to the planned investment in newly started and construction projects. Since 2023, the growth rate of planned investment in newly started projects and construction projects across the country has been declining, with the growth rate of planned investment in newly started projects falling from 20.2% at the end of 2022 to -17.6% at the end of 2023, and the growth rate of planned investment in construction projects falling from 11.5% to 3.7%.
At the national level, there is a good correlation between the planned investment in new construction projects and the growth rate of infrastructure, with correlation coefficients of 0.69 and 0.75, respectively. If the two are used to regress infrastructure investment, the correlation coefficient of the fitting results can reach 0.8. In addition, the inflection point of planned investment in newly started projects is 1-2 quarters ahead of investment in construction projects.
At the provincial level, what is the infrastructure strength of the 12 key provinces and cities pointed to by this indicator?1) From the two-factor fitting results, the 12 provinces and cities (weighted by using the generalized infrastructure investment in 2022) are generally consistent with the national trend, all of which will fluctuate at a high level in 2022 and decline in 2023. However, since 2023, the growth rate of 12 provinces and cities has declined more, in December 2023, the national fitting growth rate is 2.3%, and the 12 provinces and cities are 0;2) Split into construction and construction plan investment, the 12 provinces and cities are basically consistent with the national trend, and the downward range in 2023 is also greater than that of the whole country, as of December 2023, the growth rate of construction and construction plan investment in 12 provinces and cities is -20.1% and 0.9% respectively, which are lower than the national -17.6% and 3.7%.
(4) Indicator 5: Physical end: cement output
Cement is not easy to transport and store, so cement production can be used as an indicator of the physical quantity of infrastructure in each province.
1) Judging from the past situation, the proportion of cement production in 12 provinces and cities in the country has basically remained around 40%, and this proportion will decline in 2023, from 41.8% in 2022 to 40.9%.
2) From the perspective of marginal changes, in December 2023, the cement output of 12 provinces and cities accounted for 41.3% of the country, the highest value in the same period in the past five years.
Weekly Economic Observation: The number of railway and civil aviation passengers during the Spring Festival is expected to exceed that of 2019
Upward trend: 1) Huachuang Macro WEI Index is up. 2) In the first two days of the Spring Festival, the flow of people increased by 7% compared with 2019, and the passenger traffic of civil aviation and railway increased by more than 20% compared with 2019. 3) The prices of bulk commodities at home and abroad are generally rising.
Downward trend: 1) Real estate and land transactions are still weak.
Policy: According to Caixin, the central government has issued a document on strengthening the management of government investment projects in 12 key provinces, requiring 12 key provinces to strictly control new government investment projects.
Risk warning: deviation in index selection, deviation in indicator caliber, and historical experience may be invalid in the future.
Table of Contents of Reports
The main body of the report
Recently, the market has paid more attention to the infrastructure strength of high-debt provinces, and we have calculated the impact of tighter infrastructure investment in 12 key provinces and cities on the whole country in the 2023 annual report "Breaking Free", and listed it as one of the "X factors" in 2024. At present, it is more important to observe the infrastructure strength of 12 key provinces and cities, due to the late release of provincial infrastructure investment data and the lack of data in some provinces, this paper intends to observe the changes in infrastructure intensity of 12 key provinces and cities from 5 indicators.
1. Basic introduction: the volume and growth rate of infrastructure in 12 provinces and cities
What are the 12 provinces and cities? Refer to the 2023 annual report "Breaking Free", including Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai, and Ningxia.
In view of the fact that the Bureau of Statistics will no longer publish the absolute amount of infrastructure investment after 2017, we will take the absolute amount of infrastructure industry (electricity, heating, gas and water, transportation and warehousing, water conservancy and environment) in 2017 as the benchmark, and estimate the absolute amount in 2022 through the growth rate of previous years. In 2022, the 12 provinces and municipalities accounted for about 26.3% of the country's infrastructure investment in the broad sense, and 25.3% in the narrow sense of infrastructure (transportation, warehousing, water conservancy and environment).
Structurally, among the 12 key provinces, Yunnan, Guangxi, and Chongqing have the largest infrastructure in the broad sense, accounting for half of the 12 provinces and cities.
In 2023, the growth rate of infrastructure construction in key provinces will be lower than that of the whole country. From January to November 2023, among the 12 key provinces, the statistical bureaus of 8 provinces released infrastructure investment data, and the growth rate of infrastructure in 8 provinces and cities was greatly differentiated, of which the growth rate of Inner Mongolia and Liaoning (data from January to December) was above 15%, while Yunnan and Tianjin had a significant negative growth. If the above volume is used as a weight, the weighted calculation of the infrastructure growth rate of the eight provinces and cities from January to November 2023 is 0.8%, which is lower than the national growth rate of 5.8% in the same period.
2. How to observe the changes in the growth rate of infrastructure in 12 provinces and cities?
We try to track the changes in infrastructure growth in 12 key provinces with five indicators.
(1) Indicator 1: Funding side: net financing of urban investment bonds 1) From the past situation, the typical year of urban investment financing decline was 2018, when the net financing of urban investment bonds in 12 key provinces was -73.3 billion yuan, while the national was 276.6 billion yuan, with a ratio of -36%. In 2022 and 2023, the net financing of urban investment bonds in key provinces and cities will be negative and positive nationwide, with the ratio stable at -4%.
2) From the perspective of marginal changes, the net financing of urban investment bonds in 12 provinces and cities from January to October 2023 is still slightly positive, but it has turned negative sharply after November, although the net financing of urban investment bonds in the same period has also turned negative, but the proportion of 12 key provinces is high, 70% and 42% in November and December 2023 respectively, and 64% as of January 26, 2024, that is, the negative net financing of urban investment bonds in 12 key provinces and cities can explain more than half of the negative growth in net financing of urban investment bonds in the country.
(2) Indicator 2: Funding side: new special bonds From the past data, the proportion of new special bonds in 12 provinces and cities to the country has slowly declined since reaching a high of 23.3% in 2020, and the proportion has stabilized at around 20% in the past three years and 20.3% in 2023.
As of January 26, 2024, 12 key provinces and cities have no issuance plans, and marginal changes are not yet known.
(3) Indicator 3&4: Project side: the planned investment amount of new construction and construction projects, pay attention to the planned investment of new construction and construction projects. Since 2023, the growth rate of planned investment in newly started projects and construction projects across the country has been declining, with the growth rate of planned investment in newly started projects falling from 20.2% at the end of 2022 to -17.6% at the end of 2023, and the growth rate of planned investment in construction projects falling from 11.5% to 3.7%.
From the national level, there is a good correlation between the planned investment in new construction and construction projects and the growth rate of infrastructure. The investment in the current year can be divided into the investment in existing projects and the investment in new projects started in the current year, which can be observed by using the planned investment amount of construction projects and the planned investment amount of newly started projects by the Bureau of Statistics respectively, and the trend has a good correspondence with the growth rate of generalized infrastructure investment, with correlation coefficients of 0.75 and 0.69 respectively, and if the two factors are used to regress the generalized infrastructure investment, the correlation coefficient of the fitting results can reach 0.80. In addition, the inflection point of planned investment in newly started projects is 1-2 quarters ahead of investment in construction projects.
At the provincial level, what is the strength of infrastructure construction in key provinces and cities?
1) From the two-factor fitting results (left figure below), the 12 provinces and cities (weighted by using the 2022 broad infrastructure investment) are generally consistent with the national trend, all of which fluctuate at a high level in 2022 and decline in 2023. However, since 2023, the growth rate of 12 provinces and cities has declined even more, and the growth rate of 12 provinces and cities will fall below the national level after August 2023, and in December 2023, the national fitting growth rate will be 2.3%, and the growth rate of 12 provinces and cities will be 0;
2) Split into start-up, construction plan investment (below the middle figure, right figure), 12 provinces and cities and the national trend is basically the same, 2023 years to the downside is also greater than the country, as of December 2023, 12 provinces and cities start-up, construction plan investment growth rate is -20.1%, 0.9%, respectively, lower than the national -17.6%, 3.7%.
The error of this method is as follows: first, the industry caliber is not completely matched, and the statistical scope of the new construction and construction plan investment is fixed investment, which is not exactly the same as the caliber of infrastructure; second, the indicator is "planned" investment, and its data volatility is greater than the actual investment data.
(4) Indicator 5: Physical end: cement production cement is not easy to transport and store, and can be used as it is produced, referring to the study of Yao Zhu et al. [1] "Analysis of Iron-Suitable Cargo Based on Recommendation System", the average transportation distance of cement is about 400 kilometers, as a comparison, the east-west length of Chongqing is 470 kilometers. Therefore, cement production can be used as an observation indicator for the physical quantity of infrastructure in each province.
1) Judging from the past situation, the proportion of cement production in 12 provinces and cities in the country has basically remained around 40%, and this proportion will decline slightly in 2023, from 41.8% in 2022 to 40.9%.
2) From the perspective of marginal changes, in December 2023, the cement output of 12 provinces and cities accounted for 41.3% of the country, the highest value in the same period in the past five years.
3. Weekly economic observation
(1) As of January 21, 2024, the Huachuang Macro China Weekly Economic Activity Index was 8.96%, up 3.13% from January 14, 2024, and the Huachuang Macro China Weekly Economic Activity Index on January 21, 2024 was 4.86%, up 0.13% from January 14, 2024. From the perspective of the composition of the WEI index, the positive contribution to the rebound of the WEI index in the past two weeks is the operating rate of semi-steel tires, the batch of passenger cars, the transaction area of commercial housing, the output of crude steel, and the throughput of coal ports. The negative contributions were the movie box office, unemployment benefit conditions (Baidu search index), asphalt operating rate, and BDI.
(2) Production: Under the low base, a number of production indicators have higher year-on-year readings Freight logistics: Under the low base, the year-on-year growth rate of the freight logistics index in January has increased. According to G7 IoT data, in the first 27 days of January, the freight logistics index averaged 114.5, +49% year-on-year and -4.8% compared with 2021. The same period last year was the Spring Festival holiday, and the base was low, resulting in a significant increase in the year-on-year reading. In December last year, the freight logistics index averaged 114.4, +7.9% year-on-year and -16.6% compared to 2021.
Coal consumption for power generation: Under the low base of the Spring Festival last year, the growth rate rebounded sharply in the week. From January 12 to 18, the growth rate of power generation of key power plants across the country rebounded to 34.5%, and the growth rate of coal consumption rebounded to 26.8%. From December 29 last year to January 18 this year, the average growth rate of power generation in key power plants across the country was 19.9%, and the average growth rate of coal consumption was 14%. In the first four weeks of December last year, the growth rate of power generation at key power plants across the country averaged +10.3%, and the growth rate of coal consumption was +7.9%.
Rebar: Apparent consumption is still weak. From December 30 last year to January 26 this year, the average weekly apparent consumption of threads was 2.37 million tons, basically the same as last year, and -31% compared with the same period in 2021. In the four weeks from December 2 to 29 last year, the apparent consumption of thread was 2.58 million tons, a year-on-year increase of -7.8%.
Cement: The shipment rate continued to decline month-on-month, and increased year-on-year under a low base. In the week from December 30 last year to January 19 this year, the cement shipment rate averaged 30.5%, +10 percentage points from the same period last year. In the four weeks from December 2 to 29, the cement shipment rate was 35.2% weekly, -0.2 percentage points higher than last year.
Operating rate: We count the operating rate of 9 industries. On a month-on-month basis, the performance is differentiated. In the week of January 12-19, four industries such as petroleum asphalt plant and coking rebounded slightly, and the operating rate of the remaining five industries such as looms and rebar in Jiangsu and Zhejiang all declined. On a year-on-year basis, the operating rates of looms, semi-steel tires, all-steel tires, blast furnaces and PTAs in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were higher than those in the same period in 2019, while the operating rates of other industries were lower than those in the same period in 2019.
(3) Demand: In the first two days of the Spring Festival, the flow of people increased by 7% compared with 2019 Spring Festival travel: According to the Ministry of Transport, the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society during the Spring Festival this year is about 9 billion, an increase of 1.7% over 2019, of which 7.2 billion people travel by car, accounting for about 80%, an increase of 22.7% over 2019, and 1.8 billion commercial passenger trips, a decrease of about 40% compared with 2019. Two days before the Spring Festival (January 26-27), the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society increased by 7% compared with 2019, of which self-driving increased by 32% compared with 2019, and commercial passenger transport decreased by 36% compared with 2019. Among the commercial passenger transport, railways and civil aviation increased by more than 20% compared with 2019, while highways and waterways decreased by about 5%.
Automotive: In the first 21 days of January, retail sales of narrow passenger cars increased by 45.9%. Retail sales in December were +8.5% YoY and +26% YoY in November. In the past week, auto retail sales have risen sharply year-on-year, mainly related to the low base of the Spring Festival in the same period last year, and there is little change in auto retail sales month-on-month.
Real estate: Under the low base, the decline in transactions narrowed, and there was little change from the previous month. In the first 27 days of January, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 67 cities was 400,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of -9.9%, and a year-on-year increase of -61% compared with the same period in 2021. In December last year, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 67 cities was 610,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of -13%, and a year-on-year increase of -42% compared with the same period in 2021.
Land: The transaction area remained low. In the first 21 days of January, the weekly transaction area of Baicheng land fell to 1.51 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of -8%. In the four weeks from December 4 to 31 last year, the weekly transaction area was 16.16 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of +2%. In the five weeks from October 30 to December 31, the weekly average land transaction area of Baicheng was 4.78 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of -34.4%. The weekly land premium rate fell to 2.37%, while the average land premium rate was 3.4% in the first three weeks of January and 2.62% for the whole month of December last year.
(4) Prices: Commodity prices at home and abroad generally rose this week, and vegetable and pork prices rose slightly. The average wholesale price of pork closed at 20.37 yuan/kg, up 2.4 percent, while the wholesale price of vegetables rose 1.4 percent, the wholesale price of fruits increased 0.3 percent, and the wholesale price of eggs decreased by 0.2 percent. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, there were 41.42 million sows that could reproduce, down 2.3% month-on-month and 5.7% year-on-year. The short-term supply pressure is still large, but with the approach of the New Year and the Spring Festival, the terminal demand has improved. This week, thermal coal and bicoke prices were flat. The closing price of Shanxi thermal coal (Q5500) in Qinhuangdao Port closed at 910 yuan/ton, the price of Shanxi main coking coal depot in Jingtang Port closed at 2580 yuan/ton, and the coke price index of Gangjia closed at 2161 yuan/ton, and the prices were flat last week. According to the analysis of my steel network, as the Spring Festival approaches, as the private coal mines gradually close, the upstream supply gradually tightens, but the power plants have long-term coal supply, and the non-power industry and traders have also taken vacations, and the supply and demand of thermal coal are weak in the short term. This week, international oil prices rebounded sharply. In terms of prices, as of January 26, U.S. oil and cloth oil futures closed at $78.01 and $83.55 per barrel, up 6.3% and 6.4% respectively. U.S. commercial crude inventories fell slightly, falling 9.233 million barrels to 420.68 million barrels in the week of Jan. 19, down 2.2%, and inventories fell 6.2% from a year earlier. Oil prices have risen sharply this week, partly due to a sharp drop in US commercial crude oil inventories, and partly due to the geopolitical situation in the Red Sea, where a British oil tanker was attacked by Houthis while transiting through the Red Sea. This week, rebar prices rose slightly, iron ore prices rose significantly, and soda ash and glass prices continued to rebound. As of Friday, the spot price of rebar closed at 3,960 yuan/ton, up 1.5%, and as of Thursday, the iron ore price index: 62% Fe:CFR North China closed at $136.6/ton, up 4.6%. Other real estate infrastructure-related prices, cement prices fell by 0.8%, soda ash futures prices rose by 4.5%, and Nanhua glass price index rose by 5.2%.
(5) Foreign trade: the volume and price factors have rebounded, and the price factor is still sluggishFirst of all, in terms of global prosperity, the volume and price factors have rebounded, but the price factor is still sluggish. This week, the BDI index, which tracks global export volumes, was 113.7% year-on-year compared to 59.2% last week, and the RJ/CRB index, which tracks global export prices, was -2.9% year-on-year and -4.5% year-on-year last week. Secondly, in terms of exports from major countries, Vietnam's exports fell to 4.1% year-on-year in the first half of January, compared with 11% year-on-year in December last year, and South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of January were -1% year-on-year, with a previous value of 12.6%, of which semiconductor exports were 19.7% year-on-year and 19.2% in the previous month. Thirdly, the export container freight index, which tracks the mainland's foreign trade prosperity, continued to rise sharply by 9% compared with last week.
(6) Interest rate bonds: Strengthen the management of government investment projects and update the weekly issuance plan of local bonds: In the week of January 29, it is planned to issue 114 billion new local bonds, including 79.4 billion yuan of general bonds and 56.7 billion yuan of special bonds. Update on the monthly issuance plan of local bonds: From the perspective of the 31 provinces and cities that have disclosed their issuance plans, the new special bond issuance plan in January/Q1 is 152 billion/881.4 billion, and in January/Q1 last year, the actual issuance of 31 provinces and cities was 288.5 billion/1,115.7 billion yuan, and the actual issuance of 491.2 billion yuan/1,357 billion yuan nationwide. Update on the issuance of special refinancing bonds: In the week of January 29, Guizhou plans to issue 32.4 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds, which will be the first to be issued in 2024. Since October 2023, 27 provinces and cities have issued/are to issue special refinancing bonds (used to repay existing debts), with a scale of more than 1.4 trillion yuan. Update on the weekly issuance plan of treasury bonds and securities bonds: As of January 26, it has been announced that the treasury bonds to be issued in the week of January 29 are 000 million/net issuance -95 billion, and the securities bonds are 13 billion yuan/net issuance -169.3 billion. In terms of policy, according to Caixin, the central government has issued a document on strengthening the management of government investment projects in 12 key provinces, delineating specific areas or conditions such as strict control of new projects, support and guarantee projects, and suspension of projects under construction. The central government has asked 12 key provinces to strictly control new government investment projects, and has demarcated areas where new projects are not allowed in principle, such as local expressways, the reconstruction and expansion of civil transport airports that do not involve the construction of additional runways, urban rail transit, and buildings. In addition, municipal infrastructure and shantytown renovation projects other than urban gas, drainage, water supply and heating have also been included in the new areas of strict control. The central government still supports major government investment projects approved by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council in 12 key provinces, major projects that are included in the 14th Five-Year Plan and various national regional plans and strategic plans to ensure the safety of people's property, as well as the "three major projects" that are the starting point for stabilizing real estate. These projects shall be subject to the approval procedures in accordance with the original regulations, and shall be supported and guaranteed through central investment and financial funds, and at the same time, they may raise funds through debt in accordance with laws and regulations.
(7) Funds: R007 rose rapidly As of January 26, DR001 closed at 1.8118%, DR007 closed at 1.9517%, and R007 closed at 2.5102%, respectively, a month-on-month change of +8.53bps, +8.1bps, and +39.38bps from January 19. This week, the central bank invested 350 billion yuan in reverse repo and 1,977 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturity.
As of January 26, the yields of 1-year, 5-year and 10-year treasury bonds were reported at 2.0229%, 2.3441% and 2.4994% respectively, a month-on-month change of -6.12bps, -3.39bps and -0.33bps respectively from January 19.
[1] Yao Zhu, Wang Jiawei, Sun Xun, et al.Analysis of iron-suitable cargo based on recommendation system[J].Transportation Technology, 2021, 10(5):12.
For details, please refer to the report "[Huachuang Macro] How to Observe the Changes in Infrastructure Growth in 12 Provinces?—— Weekly Economic Observation No. 3" released by Huachuang Securities Research Institute on January 29.
In accordance with the Administrative Measures for the Suitability of Securities and Futures Investors and supporting guidelines, this information is only for professional investors of financial institutions among the clients of Hua Chuang Securities, and please do not forward this information in any form. If you are not a financial institution professional investor among the clients of Hua Chuang Securities, please do not subscribe, receive or use the information in this material. We apologize for any inconvenience caused by the difficulty of setting access permissions for this material. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation.
20231213-Zhang Yu: Looking for "New" Pricing: A Minimalist Interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference
20231212-Zhang Yu: Breaking Free - Outlook for 2024 (Dry Version)
20231209 - Long time gone - a simplified interpretation of the Politburo meeting in seven sentences
20231203-Zhang Yu: "Europe is weak and the United States is strong" from the perspective of debt interest payment - US Risk Detector Series III
20231201-Zhang Yu: The Myth of Consumption Tendency
20231130-Zhang Yu: Rethinking and Enlightenment of Japanese and American Real Estate
20231106-Zhang Yu: restless or advanced
20231101-Zhang Yu: 8-Point Understanding and Follow-up Policy Tracking Methods - A Simplified Interpretation of the Central Financial Work Conference
20231031-Zhang Yu: 13 major trends in the global industrial chain
20231025-Zhang Yu: Intended to be 5, not 5 today - comments on the issuance of additional treasury bonds
20230919-Zhang Yu: Looking at the U.S. economy from the perspective of seven contradictions
20230906-The glimmer of the tunnel - the speech record of the autumn strategy meeting of Huachuang Securities
20230826 - The price story behind the tax
20230824-7.3, what about after that?
20230818 - What to look for further easing?—— comments on the monetary policy implementation report for the second quarter of 2023
20230817 - "Seven Golden Flowers" of Export - Export Re-examination Series 3
20230804 - The path of "quasi-consumption vouchers" with Chinese characteristics - pay attention to the optimization of provident fund withdrawal, and recommend further liberalization
20230725 - The economy is wavering, real estate exceeds expectations, and the stock market has turned around - a simplified interpretation of the July Politburo meeting in seven sentences
20230717 - 7 positive changes in the economy
20230602 - Migrant workers, macro analysts, fund managers - Divergent perceptions of the economy
20230531 - Exploration of the probability of interest rate cut - quantitative analysis of the probability of interest rate cut within the year
20230527-How to understand the RMB exchange rate breaking 7?
20230526 - Looking for the "vanguard" of industrial modernization - high-quality investment framework "BBT" series II
20230525-BBT – A new investment framework in the era of high quality
20230517 - Four layers of understanding below expectations - comments on April economic data
20230510 - The wrestling of the old and new trading partners - a review of the import and export data in April
20230428 - Steady economic transition, policy bias towards growth - a brief interpretation of the April Politburo meeting in six sentences
20230421 - Three major systems - how financial indicators guide asset allocation
20230414-Four reasons for the export exceeding expectations in March and impact assessment - a review of import and export data in March
20230413 - How to break the "magic circle" of inflation in the United States?
20230404 - How to assess the height of the current economy?
20230329 - 50 charts of overseas banks and liquidity are fully tracked
20230321-Docking with high-standard economic and trade rules is also a reform momentum that needs to be paid attention to
20230314-Looking for the optimal time--summer and autumn are better than spring and winter 20230311-7 relationships between financial data and the economy and asset allocation-20230306 financial data comments in February-There are also "exceeding expectations" in the dull - Simplified interpretation of the 2023 government work report 20230221-Holographic major projects: multi-dimensional to find out the direction of investment
In 20230209-2022, is the resident balance sheet really damaged?
20230208 - "Consumption Sinking": What is the logic of support?—— The Road to Consumption Recovery Series 1 20230201 - When will the U.S. economy fall into a recession?How big is the recession?—— About the recession - Series 2 20230128 - China version of QE: Who is expanding the balance sheet "unconventionally"?20230108 - An interesting indicator to look at the current stocks
20221223-Does increasing leverage necessarily lead to an increase in interest rates?20221218-Everything revolves around "boosting confidence"-a simplified interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference 20221212-Rethinking the Russia-Ukraine conflict from the perspective of the evolution of the global crude oil pattern 20221207 - a "less", a "change", and a "more" - a simplified interpretation of the December Politburo meeting in five sentences
【Domestic Fundamentals】
20240101 - Insufficient demand, to be increased investment - December PMI data comments 20231216 - three levels of understanding of strong production - November economic data comments 20231201 - where is the strong production?Where is the weak demand?—— November PMI data comments 20231128 - income is improving—— Comments on the profits of industrial enterprises in October 20231116-Supply and demand pressure: strong supply in the midstream, weak demand in the upstream 20231101 - Commodity consumption and real estate investment may weaken at the margin--Comments on PMI data in October 20231029 - Two steps to profit improvement: from gross profit margin to revenue - Comments on profits of industrial enterprises in September 20231019 - Five questions about exceeding expectations - Comments on economic data in September 20230927 - Who is driving profit margins upward?—— Comments on the profits of industrial enterprises in August 20230916-four lines of recovery, how to ?—— the sustainability of the economic data in August 20230901-There is "progress" in the stability of the economy-20230828 PMI data reviews in August-Looking for industries with upward ROE-Comments on profits of industrial enterprises in July 20230816 - The two trigger conditions for policy increase may have arrived-20230728 comments on economic data in July--Profits are about to turn positive year-on-year—— June Industrial Enterprise Profit Review 20230702 - Which Links Are Stabilizing ?—— June PMI Data Review
20230616-Economic Symptoms and Contingency Countermeasures-May Economic Data Commentary20230601-PMI Downside: Fuse and Joint Reaction-May PMI Data Commentary 20230528-What are the signals for the bottom of inventories?—— April Industrial Enterprise Profit Review 20230523-Top 10 High-frequency Tracking Frameworks for Exports-Export Re-examination Series 120230503-PMI Ups and Downs, However, the strength of the economic structure is clear - April PMI data comments 20230429 - industrial profit growth began to pick up - March industrial enterprise profit comments 20230419 - seven judgments and three to be determined - March economic data comments 20230331 - beyond expectations, look at 10 details - March PMI data comments 20230327 - profit growth may have bottomed out - January and February industrial enterprise profit reviews
20230316-Is the economy suitable for the 5% target at the beginning of the year?—— comments on the economic data from January to February
20230303 - On the way to recovery, downside risks are low, and there is still upside momentum - January-February economic data outlook
20230301 - Two indicators look at the necessity of continuing to "expand domestic demand" - comments on PMI data in February
20230201 - Modest start – a review of the January PMI data
20230201 - What will be the rhythm of profits this year?—— December industrial enterprise profit review
20230118-Review of 36 indicators in the three years of the epidemic: what is the current situation of each link?
20230104-GDP reading may not be enough to reflect the extent of demand contraction - December economic data outlook
20230101 - Stabilizing growth requires a series of problems to be solved - December PMI data commentary
[Finance]
20231229 - Responding to weak social expectations and boosting confidence - understanding of the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in the fourth quarter of 2023
20231214 - One warm and one cold - a review of financial data in November
20231128 - Pay more attention to the "quality" of the economy in the short term - interpretation of the third quarter monetary policy implementation report
20231114 - The government's increase in leverage is equivalent to the easing of money, and the increase in private leverage is the expansion of credit
20231109 - Under the scenario of stable growth, monetary policy is more "self-oriented" - the governor of the central bank spoke on November 8 to understand
20231014 - Interpretation of the outlook under low nominal interest rates and high real interest rates - a review of financial data in September
20230915 - RRR cut does not necessarily correspond to interbank liquidity easing - the central bank's RRR cut comment on September 15
20230912-Three sectors look at the current state of the economy - comments on financial data in August
20230822 - A Difficult Balance - Commentary on the LPR Rate Cut on August 21
20230816 - A rate cut is a clear "option" - the central bank rate cut comment on August 15
20230812 - Corporate replenishment may require a little patience – July financial data commentary
20230716 - Residents' medium and long-term consumer loans showed negative growth in a single quarter for the first time - a commentary on the press conference on financial statistics in the first half of the year
20230712 - The total amount of social financing may bottom out year-on-year, and the structure still needs to be observed - comments on financial data in June
20230621 - Is the "profit" margin of the bond market large enough?
20230614 - Grab the comfort before the social finance pullback - May financial data and interest rate cut commentary
20230518-First quarter credit, where did all the money go?
20230516 - The "golden mean" of monetary policy - a review of the 2023 Q1 monetary policy implementation report
20230512 - The period of the most strong credit delivery may have passed - April financial data review
20230415 - Focus on structural tools - comments on the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in Q1 2023
20230412 - Why social finance is strong, bond market interest rates are down?—— comments on financial data in March
20230411 - Will the deposit rates of the big banks fall in the future?
20230318 - RRR Cut: A Tool for Regulating Liquidity - The PBOC's Commentary on the RRR Cut on March 27, 2023
20230314 - Quantify the possible impact of residents' early repayment
20230225-Monetary Policy: "Quality" is more important than "quantity" - Interpretation of the 2022 Q4 Monetary Policy Implementation Report
20230220-2022 credit flow industry map
20230211 - Three questions about financial data at the beginning of the year - comments on financial data in January
20230111 - The "darkest moment" of social finance, and the interest rate cut is "waiting for it" - a review of financial data in December
【Overseas】
20231231 - Will the restart of student loans be the last straw for U.S. consumption?—— U.S. Risk Detector Series IV
20231215 - Two Thoughts on the Fed's Pivot to the Narrative of Rate Cuts – A Review of the December FOMC Meeting
20231214 - There are still some twists and turns in the fall of inflation - US November CPI data commentary
20231211 - Two "flaws" behind the exceeding expectations - a review of the US non-farm payrolls data in November
20231129-Whether the basis trade of U.S. bonds can be smoothly landed ?—— the 29th issue of the U.S. Risk Detector Series 2 & Overseas Weekly
20231122 - U.S. corporate bonds maturity in the sky? next year or worry-free - U.S. risk detector series 1
20231116 - Technically adjusted risks to a rebound in inflation fade – a review of US CPI data for October
20231102-Higher解除,Longer开启—11月FOMC会议点评
20231027 - A short-lived economic acceleration - a review of US GDP data for the third quarter
20231013 - The "width" of inflation is more important than the "height" of inflation - a review of US CPI data for September
20230921 – or should not overly focus on the move of the policy rate pivot – comments from the September FOMC meeting
20230903-Five perspectives on the U.S. job market continues to normalize - a review of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August
20230812 - Reconfirmation of the inflation signal of the end of interest rate hikes - a review of US CPI data for July
20230805 - Three signals to stop raising interest rates have been shown - a review of the US non-farm payrolls data for July
20230727-U.S. Treasuries may have entered the optimal allocation range - comments from the July FOMC meeting
20230713 - The width of U.S. inflation fell back —— comments on the June CPI data in the United States
20230616 - How to understand the "stop but not stop" Fed ?—— June FOMC meeting commentary
20230614 - Beware of the "pitfall" of inflation data - a review of US CPI data for May
20230611 - Trillion U.S. Treasury Supply Coming?
20230604 - What does the employment data mean for the Fed and the market?—— US non-farm payrolls data for May
20230511 - What kind of inflation and employment can make the Fed cut interest rates?—— U.S. CPI data for April comment
20230506 - Employment resilience reinforces the need to maintain high interest rates - a review of the US non-farm payrolls data for April
20230505 - hike or end! And then what?
20230429 - The quality of the economy and the choice of the Federal Reserve
20230426 - Is there a big "thunder" in the US real estate market?
20230415 - What signal does the end of interest rate hikes look at? Economy or inflation ?—— comments on March non-farm payrolls
20230324 - Factor Investing, Machine Learning and Performance Attribution - Overseas Paper Biweekly Report No. 15
20230323 - The Fed's conundrum is interest rate sensitivity asymmetry – comments from the March FOMC meeting
20230317 - How long can excess savings last in the United States?—— Overseas Biweekly Report No. 2
20230316 - Will large fluctuations in market expectations affect the pace of the Fed's interest rate hikes?—— comments on US CPI data for February
20230312 - Hourly earnings growth is still under pressure on inflation - February non-farm payrolls data commentary
20230311 - What policy adjustments may be brought about by the new governor of the Bank of Japan?—— comments from the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting in March
20230302 - What will history tell us about disinflation?—— Overseas Essay Biweekly No. 14
20230227 - What is the driving force for high inflation in Europe, Japan and South Korea?—— the first issue of the new edition of the Overseas Biweekly Report
20230213 - Is the U.S. job market really so tight ?—— Overseas Essay Biweekly No. 13
20230216 - Is it the same as in the third quarter of 2022?—— comment on the US CPI data for January
20230204 - Japan's "Lost Decade" and Household Consumption - Overseas Essay Biweekly Journal No. 12
20230203-U.S. stocks "rushed" and turned around, alert to the risk of follow-up losses - comments on the February FOMC meeting
20230114-U.S. inflation: oil, housing, and business have eased, and "people" are the key - comments on US CPI data in December
20230109 - Strong employment + slowing wages≠ soft landing can be expected - December non-farm payrolls data commentary
20221215 - Market expectations for when the rate hike cycle of major central banks will peak ?—— December FOMC meeting commentary
20221030 - A New Era of Global Energy Inflation - Overseas Essay Biweekly No. 11
20221214 - Let the bullets fly a little longer - a review of US CPI data for November
【Policy Tracking Series】
20240104 - What difficulties and challenges should the mid-term evaluation of the 14th Five-Year Plan focus more on?—— Policy Observation Biweekly Report No. 73
20231218 - How Ministries and Localities Implement the Spirit of the Economic Work Conference ?—— Policy Observation Biweekly Report No. 72
20231205 - What is the mid-term progress of the 14th Five-Year Plan?—— Policy Watch Biweekly Report No. 71
20231117-5-Point Comparison of the Old and New PPP Mechanisms - Policy Observation Biweekly Report No. 70
20231102 - Three Concerns in the Revision of the Organic Law of the State Council - Policy Observation Biweekly No. 69
20231021 - How is the reform of the central institutions progressing?—— Policy Observation Biweekly No. 68
20231012 - Promoting High-quality Development with High-level Opening-up - Policy Observation Biweekly Report No. 67
20230926-26Where is the relaxation of urban real estate?What space is there?—— Policy Observation Biweekly No. 66
20230913-What information does the 10 major industries reveal in the steady growth plan?—— Policy Observation Biweekly Report No. 65
20230822 - Three Possible Directions of Foreign Investment Policy in the Second Half of the Year - Policy Observation Biweekly Report No. 64
20230803 - How to understand slimming and fitness in megacities, and how to promote ?—— policy observation biweekly report No. 63
20230726 - The Context and New Changes of Private Economic Policies - Policy Observation Biweekly Report No. 62
20230706 - How to promote the housing pension system?—— Policy Observation Biweekly Report No. 61
20230624 - What signals are revealed in the legislative plan of the State Council?—— Policy Observation Biweekly Report No. 60
20230607 30 Years of China-West Asia Cooperation: Strategic Significance, Cooperation History and Key Areas-Policy Observation Biweekly Bulletin No. 59
20230529 - One Main Line and Three Changes - Daxing Investigation and Research Wind Tracking Series II
20230520 - Not just Vladivostok!
20230504 - Three major changes in government procurement of services - Policy Watch Biweekly Report No. 57
20230425-What do more than 100 surveys of the central and local governments focus on?—— Daxing Investigation and Research Wind Tracking Series 1
20230413 - What will the newly created National Bureau do?—— look at the National Data Agency from the National Energy Administration
20230406-How to build a common prosperity demonstration zone in Zhejiang?—— Policy Observation Biweekly Report No. 55
20230326 - Focus on Hainan Free Trade Port: A Review of the Implementation of Ten Major Events - Weekly Economic Observation Issue 12
20230307-How to change the institutional reform of the State Council?—— Weekly Economic Observer, Issue 9
20230307-Consolidating the Foundation for Self-reliance and Self-improvement in Science and Technology and Industry - Policy Observation Biweekly Report No. 53
20230219 - What is the 100 billion catties of grain production capacity improvement action?—— Weekly Economic Observation Issue 7
20230217 - 10 New Formulations in the No. 1 Document of the Central Committee - Policy Observation Biweekly Report No. 52
20230207 - Five highlights of the local two sessions
What are the "big events" at home and abroad from 20230206 to 2023?—— Weekly Economic Observation Issue 5
20230204-15 keywords look at the New Year's work arrangement of ministries and commissions
20230131-Which policies are worth paying attention to during the Spring Festival holiday?—— Policy Observation Biweekly No. 51
20230118 - What are the key messages in the minister's interview?—— Policy Watch Biweekly Report No. 50
20230115 - Meeting of the heads of local SASAC: three years of comparison, three changes
20230103-What are the starting points for "boosting confidence?—— Policy Observation Biweekly Report No. 49
【Annual Report & Semi-Annual Report Series】
20231212-挣脱——2024年展望
20230627 - Finding Invisible Growth – 2023 Interim Strategy Report
20221227 - The Era of Moving Targets: Shoot and Aim - Macro 2023 Annual Strategy Report
20220516 - Visible Hand Breaks Through, Landscape Exchange between China and the United States - 2022 Interim Strategy Report
20211115 - Steady growth to win oneself and win one's other - 2022 macro strategic outlook
20210510 - Melancholy after reaching the summit - 2021 interim strategy report
20201123-2021: Homecoming – Annual Macro Strategy Outlook
20200625 - Economic Recovery under the Microscope – Medium-Term Strategy for 2020
20191111 - Stepping on the edge of the world, holding a shield and hitting a spear - 2020 annual strategy report
20181126 - Those who come can still chase - macro 2019 strategy
【Investment Navigator Series】
20230815-宏观反诈训练营——千页PPT来袭!
20220815 - When the macro can be landed 2022 version - 16 hours of 1,000 pages PPT invitation!
20210909 - China's Political and Economic System and the Index System of Asset Allocation - 2021 Training Series 1
20210910 - How to make new wine from old bottles?200 pages PPT explains in detail the analytical framework of China's macroeconomic characteristics - 2021 training series 2
20210911 - Commonalities and Differences between U.S.-China Inflation Analysis Frameworks – 2021 Training Series 3
20210912 - Thoughts on Mobility – 2021 Training Series 4
20210913 - ABC of Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - 2021 Training Series 5
20210914 - Frameworks for Overseas Research: Those "Lights" in the Global Data Blind Sea – 2021 Training Series 6
Legal Notices
Hua Chuang Securities Research Institute is positioned as a research team for professional investors, and this material is only for accredited professional investors, and only for the timely exchange of research views in the context of new media. Hua Chuang Securities does not treat subscribers as clients of the Company by virtue of any subscription to this material. Ordinary investors who use this material may suffer investment losses due to the lack of interpretation services that may lead to ambiguities in their understanding of the key assumptions, ratings, target prices, etc. in the report.
This information comes from the research report published by Hua Chuang Securities Research Institute, if there is any ambiguity about the excerpt of the report, the complete content of the report on the date of release shall prevail. It should be noted that this information only represents the judgment of the date of the report, and the relevant analysis opinions and speculations may be subject to change without notice in accordance with the subsequent research reports issued by Hua Chuang Securities Research Institute. Other business units or affiliates of Hua Chuang Securities may independently make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions or recommendations contained in this material. The price, value and income of securities or financial instruments referred to in this material may go down as well as up and past performance should not be relied upon as an indication of and guarantee of future performance. This material is for the subscriber's information only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell, buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Subscribers should not rely solely on the information in this material as a substitute for their own independent judgment, and should make their own investment decisions and bear their own investment risks. Hua Chuang Securities shall not be liable for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of the information referred to in this material or other losses related thereto.
The securities market research information contained in this material usually provides medium and long-term value judgments based on specific assumptions, or gives investment recommendations based on "relative index performance", and does not involve judgments on the performance of specific securities or financial instruments at specific prices, specific points in time, and specific markets, so it cannot be equated with operational opinions with targeted guidance for specific investments. Ordinary individual investors who wish to use this information must seek the guidance of a professional investment advisor and relevant follow-up interpretation services. If any direct or indirect loss is caused by the improper use of relevant information, Hua Chuang Securities does not assume any form of responsibility for this.
Without the prior written authorization of Hua Chuang Securities, no institution or individual may modify, send or copy the content of this material in any way. Hua Chuang Securities has not made a daily authorization for any network or print media to allow reprinting. Except for media requests approved by Hua Chuang Securities, all other reprinting behaviors are illegal. If any direct or indirect loss is caused to Hua Chuang Securities due to infringement, Hua Chuang Securities reserves the right to pursue relevant legal liabilities.
If subscribers have any questions or would like to receive the full report, please contact the Institutional Sales Department of Hua Chuang Securities or email us at [email protected].