Corn is about to change, the futures and spots are different, the spot is falling, the disk bottoms out and rebounds, can the bud rise?
The following article comes from the legend of Grain Lake, the author is Futures Xiaochu
(1) Corn spot situation
In the past week, the fourth week of 2024, corn prices are still showing a downward trend, continuing to fall endlessly, and even hitting new lows in recent years in some regions. Entering the wax month, the pre-holiday realization demand increased, the amount gradually increased, although there was an increase in the purchase of reserves, the deep processing inventory was at a high level, and the operating rate continued to increase; However, due to the peak period of corn on the market, the grassroots pile of grain sales, coupled with the demand for corn consumption is less than expected, the phenomenon of oversupply is prominent, and the willingness of traders to build warehouses is low, so that corn prices continue to fall. Even lower than the cost of planting, it continued to fall sharply, and the lowest in North China fell to around 1.1 yuan, close to the price of Beigang.
However, with the sharp drop in prices, the approach of the Spring Festival, and the rise in the market, the amount of corn has decreased, and some traders have begun to build up inventories, and the progress of grain sales has accelerated. Starting from Friday afternoon, some areas finally rose in price, and Shandong rose across the board over the weekend, and some companies reproduced the scenario of a one-day rise of two or three points, and the spot part ushered in a long-lost "grand occasion". However, the deep processing inventory is at a high level, and the stocking of feed enterprises is basically over; So can corn bottom out and rebound and usher in an all-round rise? Pay attention to the future situation of farmers' grain sales and enterprise warehouse construction!
A number of directly subordinate warehouses of China Grain Reserves have increased their reserves and purchased in the northeast producing areas since the middle of the year, but the grain quality requirements are high and the price is not dominant; In addition, in the face of centralized grain sales, although the market has been boosted, the strength is limited. However, although there has been no change in the prices of the Northeast producing areas, the decline has slowed down. Northeast corn is at the peak of the market, the supply is relatively loose, and some traders and drying towers have begun to build up stocks. With the continuous decline in prices, the amount of corn began to decrease, the grain sales in Northeast China were close to more than half, the sales pressure was reduced, and the price increase began to appear in Jilin. For example, fuel ethanol rose by 1 point 5, and the price of dry corn (moisture ≤ 14.5% corn) 14% moisture was 2160 yuan/ton; COFCO Princess Ridge and Elm also rebounded slightly.
On January 25, the number of vehicles in Shandong reached 1,525, which made most of the deep processing enterprises lower their prices, and the decline was a bit large. After New Year's Day, the price of Shandong has repeatedly fallen below the cognition, and this week it is a new low, such as Shengtai reached 1.127 yuan / catty, and Linqing gold corn 1.13 yuan / catty. However, as prices plummeted and futures rebounded, the number of vehicles decreased rapidly, to 679 on Saturday and 237 on Sunday. Therefore, the price of bud rice stopped falling and rebounded again, and it rebounded and rose in an all-round way, generally rising by three or four points in just one or two days. The purchase price of corn in Linqing Golden Corn will be raised by 1 point from 08:00 on Sunday, and the implementation will be 1.17 yuan / catty. Although the progress of grain sales in Shandong has also reached 50%, the purchase of feed mills is limited, the demand is relatively sluggish, and it is about to enter the holiday stage, and there is uncertainty about the future price. Pay attention to the future situation!
(2) Review of futures market:
Last week, the U.S. corn continuous contract opened at 445.5 cents/bushel, with an intraday high of 453.25 cents/bushel and a low of 444 cents/bushel, closing at 446.5 cents/bushel, up 0.28%, the first recent gain.
The corn 2405 contract opened at 2340 yuan/ton last week, the highest intraday price was 2363 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2317 yuan/ton, and closed at 2358 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan, or 0.64%; It was the first rise in seven weeks, after six consecutive weeks of declines.
(3) Relevant information on the source countries of China's corn imports
We know that the amount of corn imports is also one of the important factors affecting domestic prices, and in recent years, in order to meet domestic needs, China's imports have increased significantly, and have exceeded the import quota of 7.2 million tons for four consecutive years, and the sources are more diversified. In 2023, the domestic corn production will be bumper, and corn imports will show explosive growth, with a total of 27.13 million tons of corn imported throughout the year, an increase of 31.6% compared with 20.61 million tons in 2022. It is second only to the record of 28.35 million tons set in 2021 and the third consecutive year of imports exceeding 20 million tons.
Brazil, the United States and Ukraine are the main sources of corn imports. Last year's bumper corn harvest in Brazil, the supply surge after the increase in production led to a sharp drop in local corn prices, and the apparent price advantage prompted domestic traders to order large quantities of Brazilian corn, making Brazil the continent's largest supplier of imported corn. In December 2023, the import volume will be as high as 4.0114 million tons, and the cumulative import of Brazilian corn will be 12.81 million tons, accounting for about half of the total annual imports.
Global cereal production in 2023/24 is expected to reach a record 2.307 billion tonnes, up 2% year-on-year, the International Grains Council (IGC) said on January 24, mainly due to a solid rebound in maize production.
Let's take a look at Ukraine, which was once one of the largest sources of imports
The European Commission is studying ways to allow Eastern European member states to restrict agricultural imports from Ukraine and extend trade liberalization with Ukraine for another year until June 2025.
Ukraine's grain exports in the 2023/24 season, which began in July, stood at 22.147 million mt as of Jan. 24, down 14% from 25.741 million mt in the same period last year, the Ministry of Agriculture said. Between January 1 and 24, Ukraine exported 3.68 million tonnes of grain, up from 3 million tonnes in the same period last year.
From July 1, 2023 to January 24, 2024, Ukraine exported 12 million tons of corn, compared to 14.57 million tons in the same period last year.
Let's take a look at Brazil, one of the countries that import corn this year
Brazil exported 55.9 million tonnes of corn in 2023, up 29.4% year-on-year, according to statistics from the Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex). Brazil exported 3.7 million mt of corn from January 1 to 19, 2024, up from 2.7 million mt a week earlier.
Brazil's corn exports in January 2024 are expected at 3.86 million mt, down from an estimate of 3.94 million mt a week ago, Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) said.
The area planted to maize is expected to decrease by 11 percent in the first season and by 5 percent in the second maize crop. Brazil's total 2023/24 maize output was also revised downwards to 118.5 million tonnes, down from the initial forecast of 129.6 million tonnes. Brazilian farmers are harvesting the first corn crop and are starting to plant the second crop.
Weather forecasts indicate active rainfall in two-thirds of northern Brazil over the next 10 days, which will delay the planting of the second crop of maize, but also mean that soil moisture will increase, favoring the germination of the second crop.
(4) U.S. corn-related situation
U.S. corn exports fell again as Mexico's purchasing pace slowed. The export sales report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed that the total net sales of corn in the United States for the week ended January 18, 2024, increased by 992,400 tons, in line with expectations; It fell slightly from the previous value, and the previous value was 1.2711 million tons.
U.S. corn export sales in 2023/24 increased by 954,800 mt, down 24% from the previous week, from 1,251,100 mt in the previous week, but up 14% from the previous four-week average; The market had previously estimated a net increase of 725,000 tonnes to a net increase of 1.4 million tonnes.
Among them, the export sales to China that week were 2,400 tons, a slight decline from the previous value, and the previous value was 60,000 tons; This is slightly lower than the level of 71,800 tonnes in the same period last year.
U.S. export shipments continued to decline. In the same week, the U.S. corn export shipment was 931,800 tons, a decrease of 7% from the previous week, and the previous value was 1,000,400 tons; This is a 7% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks.
Among them, 68,400 tons were exported to Chinese mainland that week, and 00,100 tons were exported last week; The shipment figure for the same period last year was 71,500 tons.
As of Jan. 18, U.S. corn export shipments to China (mainland) in 2023/24 were 1.63 million mt, compared with 3.92 million mt in the same period last year. The total sales to China (mainland China) were 1.82 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 54.5%.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's agricultural counselor in Beijing released a report on Wednesday that China is expected to import 20 million tonnes of corn in 2023/24, down from the USDA's official January forecast of 23 million tonnes.
(5) Market review and future analysis
2023 is a thing of the past, and 2024 is approaching the end of the month. We know that since the new season corn was put on the market, the price has dropped sharply, and in some areas it has even exceeded 800 yuan. After New Year's Day, although the state has increased reserves, in the face of selling grain, the supply pressure is great, so that the decline in corn prices has not ended, and the downward trend has continued. Moreover, the increase in grain reserves in China has limited boost to the market, the willingness of trade links and grain-using enterprises to build warehouses is low, the price of Shandong has fallen sharply, and the sales area and production area have been inverted. However, with the sharp collapse in corn prices, farmers are reluctant to sell, the amount of goods is reduced, and some traders have begun to build up stocks; The market began to rise on Friday afternoon, and Shandong began to rise across the board on the 27th. As if it warmed up overnight, the Spring Festival is approaching, spot purchases and sales are about to stagnate, will corn be reversed?
In terms of corn futures, the main corn contract in 2023 fell by 14.55% for the whole year, entering a technical bear market. Entering 2024, the corn market has continued its downward trend, down 55 points, or 2.28%, so far (as of the 26th), with an intraday low of 2317 points, a new low since mid-September 2020. However, from a weekly perspective, after six consecutive declines, it ushered in the first rebound. In the past week, the main corn contract rebounded and rose 0.64%.
The corn spot fell that week, the futures rebounded, the two diverged, where will the price go in the future?
This year, the supply of corn is large, the import to Hong Kong is more, the market mentality is weak, the consumer demand is less than expected, traders have not established effective inventory, and the disk technology looks at the corn has entered a bear market, which is the main problem faced by the new season corn market. Although the increase in reserves has been opened again, the boost to the market is limited. Have these factors changed?
First of all, on the supply side, the corn harvest was abundant, and farmers were enthusiastic about selling, and the import of corn surged in the fourth quarter and arrived in large quantities. With the advent of the Spring Festival, prices have continued to fall, the peak period for grain sales by grassroots peasants has ended, and the progress of grain sales in Heilongjiang has exceeded 50 percent, and even Jilin, which has the lowest progress in grain sales in northeast China, has seen a price increase on Saturday.
Secondly, corn consumption demand. It is generally believed that consumption is insufficient and less than expected, but the deep processing inventory has been at a high level recently, and the operating rate has continued to increase, reaching 74%; The inventory of feed enterprises is no different from last year, last year's feed output increased slightly, and the proportion of corn feed has gradually increased recently, does it indicate that consumer demand is recovering? And with the decline in corn prices, the advantages of substitutes such as wheat and imported corn have dropped sharply, or even disappeared. The most important thing is that there is no corn channel inventory now, traders have generally not established effective inventory, and some traders have begun to establish inventory, so will there be a "grain war" in the future?
And in the middle of the year
Does the opening of the increase in reserves mean that the country is supporting the bottom?
Finally, let's talk about the corn pan. Although the main corn contract plummeted sharply and entered a bear market, after a continuous decline, the support below gradually strengthened, and there was an over-falling rebound. On the daily line, the MACD appeared a golden cross and a red column, temporarily standing at the 10-day moving average; On a weekly basis, it rose for the first time after six consecutive declines. Analysis of long and short positions, the recent bulls continue to increase their positions, and the ultimate long-short showdown opens.
How do you judge the future market of corn? Corn price at this point, is there a lot of room for fall, or a lot of room for rebound? Traders will not establish inventory, do they need to establish inventory? Is it to follow the trend, or is it subtle to wait and see? We need to think carefully, do a good job of strategic planning, and plan to act!
(6) This week's view
To sum up, Xiaobian believes that the disk is in the bottoming market, and the signs of over-falling rebound are obvious. Therefore, it is recommended that you hold more orders, buy on dips, sell high and buy low, and pay attention to the pressure above. Personal opinion, FYI!
Important: The information contained herein is derived from publicly available information and is not guaranteed to be accurate or implied in terms of accuracy, reliability, timeliness and completeness. The views and information published in this article are for investors' reference only and do not constitute investment advice to anyone. The risks and returns of futures are relatively large, please participate cautiously, sincerely apologize for the inconvenience caused to you, thank you for your understanding and cooperation!
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