In the past two days, wheat and corn are putting on an extreme show, wheat is falling and corn is rising.
Especially corn, it stands to reason that it is now the home of wheat, and corn has no limelight to grab, but this time Shandong and Northeast China are united, and it has risen for several days.
Shandong's rise doesn't need to be asked, it must be related to the volume.
In the past few days, the number of trucks in front of Shandong deep processing has been small, so the price has been rising.
This also reflects two things:
First, the transfer of corn grain rights has been basically completed, that is, the majority has been transferred to the hands of the main body of trade, and the main body of trade has a stronger ability to control the market than the grassroots.
Second, market sentiment has changed.
With the transfer of grain rights, the mood of the main body of trade has also begun to change, especially the initial cost is not low, so the sentiment of reluctance to sell and raise prices is high, so the amount of corn has been sluggish, and the price has been rising.
But this rise is getting more and more nervous, why?
Because the confidence to rise is insufficient.
In other words, the current rise in corn is mainly due to the reluctance to sell staple grains, while there is no obvious support on the demand side.
For example, although deep processing is still profitable, but previously analyzed, the demand for corn in deep processing is basically at the top, and the sales of downstream products are average, and there is a certain accumulation of deep processing inventory, so the demand is not urgent.
In addition, some enterprises began to shut down for maintenance, so the overall support is limited.
And feed companies are still waiting.
In particular, wheat is on the market, and the low price of some tide grain wheat has attracted the attention of feed companies, so at this juncture, it is unlikely to purchase corn in large quantities.
Lack of demand, relying on sentiment alone, the rise in corn is difficult to sustain.
Because emotions are very fragile, especially in the past two years, many traders have fallen into the pit due to excessive bullishness and are very hurt, so this year is walking on thin ice.
On the other hand, the market sentiment this year is already unstable, although it is generally expected that corn will have a chance when it is not green, but the general trend of grain prices falling, so it is difficult to say how much space this small opportunity can have under the general trend.
In addition, there are still some main bodies that need to vacate warehouses and ship before the wheat harvest, so the supply pressure of corn still exists.
Therefore, under this expectation, corn seems to be rising happily, but it is not real, and due to the lack of demand support, once corn rises a little faster, it will trigger the fear of heights of some trade subjects, and then move with the goods, the amount increases, and the price will naturally not be maintained.
So don't look at the corn rising happily, but it's not going to fall again soon.
But don't panic, because the upward trend of corn is gradually being established.
There are two things that you can focus on later:
One is the spread between North China and Northeast China.
In addition to demand, another problem that restricts the rise of corn is the inversion of North China and Northeast China, resulting in poor corn circulation.
But this problem will inevitably be alleviated in the later stage, but it depends on who rises first and who pushes whom.
The other is the market price of pigs.
Recently, pig prices have fluctuated very violently, which also shows that the market game is very fierce.
Although pig prices have not yet risen in an all-round way, the rally seems to be imminent. Although some wheat will flow into feed, the magnitude is not large, and in comparison, corn is more cost-effective.
So when the price of pigs rises and the demand for feed increases, it is also the time to boost the rise of corn.
End of this article, thanks for reading! Feel free to like it and give it a support.