The trend has been formed, and the next thing is the monstrous feast of corn, which will stage a wonderful performance of "horizontal knife immediately, smiling proudly" for everyone. How much upside is there? How high is the amplitude? No one knows, let the bullets fly for a while!
This trend is also a warning to those who are extremely bearish on the market, making them feel a little shock and frustration. Although the corn market is market-oriented, it will never get rid of the "escort" of the policy.
When the wind changes, no one can stop it. As you don't know, a butterfly in the Amazon rainforest of South America, with a few occasional flicks of its wings, can cause a tornado in Texas, USA, two weeks later.
The wings are slightly scattered, and everything changes.
Hello friends, today is May 18, 2024, and a real "war for grain" has been staged in the northeast producing areas - the price of the reserve warehouse is asking for grain, the price of traders is asking for grain, and the price of deep processing is asking for grain.
At this time, the "big brother" of Gangzhou Port directly ignited a warm fire in the Northeast market, with 14.5 moisture, 720 bulk density, and a purchase price of 2400 yuan (with tickets). At this moment, is there a sense of "aftermath" after "breaking the cocoon into a butterfly".
It's not over yet, the blessing of corn futures has undoubtedly made the current "fire" burn more vigorously! Traders' sentiment has changed 180 degrees, no, 720 degrees - the beginning of a mass "euphoria".
However, Xiaobian still wants to remind everyone that there are signs of a pullback in corn futures in the short term.
Especially the eldest brother of Jinzhou Port, do you really think that the rise to 2400 yuan is a "good rise"? must not have a good heart - selling their own grain to carry out the rally.
Because the current price increase is not caused by the relationship between supply and demand, simply because the price increase of emotions driven by the rise in futures, the spot follows the logic of futures - pull the big saw, pull the big saw, and sing a big show at the door of my grandmother's house.
Conjecture: In the next period of time, (1) the "big brother" of Jinzhou Port is very likely to stop harvesting at the craziest time in the market, (2) the imported corn will be auctioned, (3) the traders who have the corn in Binxian County may have a "headache and a pain in the butt", (4) the corn auctioned at a high price by the big brother of Jilin a few days ago is very likely to dig a pit for himself.
Note: What I'm saying is that I may not make money, but it doesn't mean that I will lose money, it's just uncomfortable - it's pure blindness!
The Northeast market has come to this point in time, some do not make money, and some have earned close to 100 yuan or so, for those traders who make money, they will leave if they have profits, because they can not be used as seeds if they stay in their hands.
Again, you are the master of your own grain, your own profits, and you have the final say on whether you sell or not.
Everyone has their own different understanding of the market, you say 100, 99 are not true, as long as one is true, and this factor appears, it is enough to change the trend of the market.
Therefore, Northeast corn will stage a more brilliant market at the end of the month, let's wait and see.
On the other hand, the North China market is lively again this time! Yesterday's article stated the phenomenon of "Shandong deep processing began to increase". No, the price will start to drop in the afternoon!
In the face of the falling price, the market and the Internet began to speculate and ferment again, thinking that this time the small corn is in danger again. But the truth is: some companies don't have a few cars in front of them, and they start to perform new plays in old dramas - holding cars.
But, don't worry, they want to use a big knife to scare you, but they definitely can't, and they can't achieve it, they can only scare you with the whole knife.
Then, the price of corn in North China will continue to rise "without hesitation", and that is, there is only one possibility: rise, rise, rise.
Therefore, the current "small setback" does not affect the trend of corn to continue to rise. The market needs time to digest, don't rush, let alone panic - a good meal is not afraid of being late, what are you busy with?
This year's pig prices will also soar, why are you so sure?
The sow herd of the group's large farm is almost the same as last year, about 12 million heads, and the inventory of retail investors has decreased by about 15% compared with last year.
1. The big fat in January ~ April last year did not enter the market for digestion, but entered the cold storage in the slaughterhouse, and no one knows this magnitude, and it can only be assessed as about 10 million heads.
On the contrary in January ~ April this year, almost no cold storage has been entered, the main reason is that there is too much inventory, and now the price of hairy pigs can be maintained at about 15 yuan, which is already very good. In other words, the market is full of people who say that consumption is not good, and you are a big-headed ghost.
2. Last year's sow elimination was divided into two situations: one was active elimination, the other was passive elimination, and most of the passive elimination was due to "Xiaofei".
The active culling of sows will not reduce the number of fattening pigs until a year later. Passive culling of sows will reflect a decline in the number of pens in the second month of culling.
To sum up, it can be deduced that this year's pig gap, which can also be called the "break period", began in June, that is, Xiaobian has been thinking about it, the real rise in pig prices, or the time of the big rise is in June, that is, the last month of the first half of the year.
In other words, the hotter the weather, the higher the pig price, and the so-called professional analysts must be killed.
However, it is worth noting that hog prices will take a sharp turn after entering August. The timing is not necessarily accurate, but the trend does not change. (Personal opinion, for reference only, does not represent correct, all nonsense)
The latest corn prices in the country on May 18, 2024
Gansu Guowei starch: 1.17 yuan, up 1 point.
Shaanxi Guowei starch: 1.16 yuan, up 1 point.
Henan Mengzhou Golden Corn: 1.115 yuan, up 1 point.
Hebei Guangyu starch: net weight ≥ 20 tons 1.15 yuan, net weight < 20 tons 1.14 yuan, down 5 cents.
Shandong Hengren Industry and Trade: 1.16 yuan, up 1 point.
Shandong Rice Energy Biotechnology: 1.16 yuan, up 1 point.
Shandong Qingyuan Food: 1.17 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Zhucheng Jinxu: 1.187 yuan, down 3 percent.
Shandong Xiwang starch: 1.208 yuan, 5 cents.
Shandong Baolingbao Biological: 1.165 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Jinhe Boyuan: Naturally dry, Northeast dried corn 1.195 yuan, up 1 point.
Shandong Zhucheng Yuanfa: 1.182 yuan, 3 percent. The first drop price.
Shandong Zhucheng Yuanfa: 1.179 yuan, down 3%. The second drop price. A total of 6 percent.
Shandong Zhucheng Xingmao: 1.185 yuan, 3 cents. The first drop price.
Shandong Zhucheng Xingmao: 1.182 yuan, down 3%. The second drop price. A total of 6 percent.
Shandong Weifang Shengtai Pharmaceutical: 1.171 yuan, down 3%. The first drop price.
Shandong Weifang Shengtai Pharmaceutical: 1.168 yuan, down 3 percent. The second drop price. A total of 6 points were lost.
Shandong Linqing Deneng Golden Corn: 1.137 yuan, 3 percent. The first drop price.
Shandong Linqing Deneng Golden Corn: 1.33 yuan, 4 percent. The second drop price. A total of 7 percent.
Shandong Binzhou Jinhui corn: 1.16 yuan within 18 moisture, 1.155 yuan above 18 moisture, 3 percent.
Shandong Luzhou Group: The cycle price of natural drying and drying corn is 1.17 yuan, and the cycle price of less than 20 tons is 1.16 yuan, up 1 point.
Inner Mongolia Bashan starch: 14 moisture 1.18 yuan, up 1 point.
Inner Mongolia Kailu Yuwang: 14 moisture 1.185 yuan, 15 moisture 1.171 yuan, 16 moisture 1.157 yuan, 17 moisture 1.142 yuan, 18 moisture 1.128 yuan, up 5%.
Jilin Yushu COFCO: 2,290 yuan above the third class, up 40 yuan.
Jilin Meihekou Fukang alcohol: third-class 2290 yuan, up 50 yuan.
Heilongjiang Xinhecheng Biology: 14 moisture 1.149 yuan, 15 moisture 1.135 yuan, 16 moisture 1.121 yuan, up 1 point.
Heilongjiang Hailun State Investment: 14 dry food moisture 1.135 yuan, 14.5 moisture 1.1282 yuan, 15 moisture 1.1146 yuan, up 5%.