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【Reading guide】May is gradually coming to an end,Recently,The trend of the pig market and the grain market has attracted much attention,Among them,The pig market,Under the consistent operation of the phased bullish outlook,Multiple benefits are concentrated in cash,Pig prices show a trend of easy to rise and fall. In the grain market, the price of corn has gradually entered the rising channel, however, the wheat market is slightly deviated, and the price of old wheat has not stopped falling due to the expectation of a bumper yield of new wheat!
So, what's happening in the market? Today is May 18th, and the prices of live pigs, corn and wheat are updated after the price adjustment, and the specific analysis is as follows:
First, corn is rising!
In May, the amount of autumn grain corn has also come to an end, the surplus grain at the grassroots level has gradually decreased, and the participation of farmers has gradually decreased.
In particular, the supply of corn has entered the stage of decreasing trend, and the corn contract price continues to rise, the market is bullish on the sentiment of the future, which further limits the amount of grain sources, and also boosts the operation of demand replenishment.
In the Northeast market, the purchase and sale of corn is relatively cautious, the main body of grain is reluctant to sell stronger, the circulating grain source is limited, the enterprise is not enough to undertake the high-priced grain source, the purchase and sale is slightly cautious, the spot quotation is mainly stable and strong, and some enterprises are consumed by the grain source inventory, and the demand for replenishment increases! Among them, in Longfeng Corn, Suihua Haotian, Jingliang Longjiang, Heilongjiang Xinhecheng, Kailu Yuwang, and Hailun Guotou, the company's quotation rose by 0.5~1 cent/catty! Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia mainstream corn quotation is 1.075~1.183 yuan / catty!
In the North China market, the purchase and sale of corn at the grassroots level has stagnated, traders have not recognized the poor sale, and the arrival of grain sources of enterprises has remained low, in order to stabilize the daily start, some enterprises have slightly increased the performance of price increases, however, compared with the previous day, the arrival of grain sources of enterprises has increased slightly, and the market has become more resistant to high-priced grain sources, and the price of spot corn is stable! Among them, in Shandong, Zaozhuang Hengren, Yishui Qingyuan, and Zou Cheng Rice Neng, the deep processing quotation rose by 0.5~1 points, and the mainstream corn quotation in Shandong was 1.13~1.27 yuan/jin!
According to the analysis of the institution, at present, the corn spot maintains a volatile situation, but with the rise of corn spot quotations, the downstream market capacity has weakened, and the market may have a weak and stable situation.
Second, wheat prices fluctuated downward!
In the wheat market, at present, the purchase and sale of old wheat is relatively deserted, from the perspective of purchase and sales feedback, in terms of wheat supply, although the grassroots old grain is gradually decreasing, but the supply of local grain sources is loose, and the early grain storage auction wheat has also flowed into the market, and the difficulty of milling enterprises to replenish the raw grain is weak. However, on the demand side, affected by the off-season of consumption, the lack of increment in household consumption, the difficulty of flour storage is high, traders are mainly based on on-the-go picking, the operating rate of mainstream flour enterprises is low, and the demand for grain is poor!
In terms of new wheat, at present, Hubei wheat has been listed on the market, some areas of Anhui have also harvested wheat, the new wheat opening scale price performance is average, Hubei new wheat loading price hovers at 1.15 ~ 1.18 yuan, the local grain main body listing price is around 1.2 yuan / catty, the listed purchase price of enterprises in other provinces is about 1.24 ~ 1.26 yuan / catty, some enterprises by the new wheat procurement and changes in the quality of grain sources, there is a slight increase in prices, such as in Hubei Jingzhou Tianqi wheat noodle quotation rose 2 points, Zhoukou Wudeli quotation rose 1.3 points!
According to the analysis of the institution, due to the strong expectation of new wheat production, the market purchase and sales are relatively cautious, and the new wheat of many enterprises in many places is showing a low opening situation, and the price of the main body of grain and wheat continues to decline, among them, in Shandong, Hebei and Henan, the mainstream wheat listing price fell by 0.5~1 point, the listed price of wheat in Shandong market is 1.25~1.32 yuan/jin, and the listed price of wheat in Hebei is 1.26~1.28 yuan; Henan wheat price is 1.238~1.315 yuan / catty!
Personally, I believe that the new wheat is on the track, the price of old wheat will be further merged with the new wheat, at present, by the expectation of increased production, the market opening scale price has a low performance, however, with the official release of the news, the official estimate of the new wheat opening scale price in 1.25 ~ 1.35 yuan / catty, which may alleviate the pessimistic sentiment of the market to a certain extent, for the new wheat market or have a certain support, the market outlook is concerned, the impact of the weather on the production area!
Third, the price of live pigs bucked the trend and went up!
In the pig market, recently, pig prices are running strongly, although the pressure of consumption constraints is not good, the price of fat pigs has gradually deteriorated, and the price spread of standard fertilizer has narrowed under the pressure, and some breeding ends have the mood of large pigs slaughtered! However, due to the strong consistency of the market outlook, the rhythm of slaughter at the breeding end is relatively slow, the social pig farm shrinks the price, the north and south of many places are active in the second breeding, the group pig enterprises are relatively smooth to slaughter, and some slaughtering enterprises are facing a certain "lack of pigs" pressure, and pig prices continue to rise with the support of many parties!
According to data analysis, on May 18, the price of lean pigs slaughtered in the outer three yuan was 15.31 yuan / kg, up 0.06 yuan, pig prices continued to be strong, the domestic market was mainly stable with the rise, the pig price in the northern region was strong, and the southern market was mainly stable!
Personally, I believe that the logic of supporting the rise in pig prices, on the one hand, in the northern region, the second breeding is positive, Henan, Shandong and other places, the grassroots two breeding is relatively positive, and the mentality of buying standard pigs is higher, and the pressure on pig farms in many places is not large, the wait-and-see price mentality is strong, and the slaughter of suitable pigs is relatively small, and the slaughtering enterprises are facing a certain difficulty in collecting pigs! On the other hand, the outlook for pig prices is optimistic, and the market is consistent with the bullish in the third quarter, in particular, the pig contract 2407 and 2409 Hebei quotations are high, which boosts the sentiment of the stage breeding end and increases the mentality of the second breeding in the market!
However, due to the poor pressure of phased consumption constraints, the average loss of domestic sample slaughter enterprises this week is about 60 yuan, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is about 28%, consumer demand is under pressure, and it is difficult for downstream white strips to follow up, and the market still has downward pressure!
The market outlook pays attention to the rhythm of slaughter at the breeding end, the mood of the second breeding and the change in the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises, rationally, pig prices are still in the stage of volatility and rising, and the rise is still facing pressure on the consumer side!