The operating mileage of the subway has officially entered the "trillion era".
According to the data of the Ministry of Transport, by the end of 2023, 55 cities across the country have opened rail transit, with an operating mileage of 10,165.7 kilometers, far ahead of the world.
However, the construction and operation of the subway is high, creating a debt burden in some places. The state has raised the construction threshold many times, and this time it has directly named 12 provinces, requiring that no new urban rail transit and urban (suburban) railway projects be built, which means that the subway construction boom is really coming to an end.
01
Rail transit construction has been soaring for 20 years
In 1969, Beijing opened its first subway, and by 2000, only four cities in the country had opened subways, the other three being Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou.
After entering the new century, the construction of the mainland subway ushered in the era of hurricane. In 2003, the State Council promulgated the conditions for the construction of subways, with more than GDP1000 billion yuan, more than 10 billion fiscal revenues, and more than 3 million urban populations. The urban population alone has kept most cities out, and only some provincial capitals and economically developed cities meet the requirements. As a result, not many cities opened subways in the following years.
By 2012, population requirements were relaxed in order to boost the economy through investment. Subsequently, the mainland subway ushered in explosive growth, opening three or four cities every year. A large number of cities such as Lanzhou, Hohhot, Luoyang, Nantong, Xuzhou, Shaoxing, Wenzhou, Wuhu, etc., whose population does not meet the standard, have been approved.
Seeing that various places blindly borrowed money to build rail transit, it brought about a debt burden. In 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission raised the construction threshold again, 300 billion GDP, 30 billion fiscal revenue, and 3 million urban population, and later added another one, 07,000 people per kilometer per day.
This threshold is very high, and there is basically no hope for ordinary prefecture-level cities that have not yet opened the subway. But I didn't expect that the subway could not be repaired, and some cities set their sights on trams. The construction of trams does not require the approval of the National Development and Reform Commission, and you can do it yourself.
Therefore, nearly 10 prefecture-level cities have opened trams in recent years, such as the Tianshui tram in Gansu in 2020, the Wenshan tram in Yunnan in 2021, and the Huangshi tram in Hubei in 2022.
After more than 20 years of soaring, the number of cities in mainland China that have opened rail transit has reached 55.
02
New construction was suspended, and 12 provinces were named
The cost of rail transit construction is very high, and the cost of one kilometer of subway is 5-600 million yuan, and the high cost is more than 1 billion yuan. Trams are actually not cheap, and the cost of one kilometer is more than 100 million yuan. The operating costs of the subway are also high, and only 5 of the 32 urban subways that announced their results in 2022 are profitable, and the remaining 27 have a total loss of more than 90 billion yuan.
Such high construction and operating costs have undoubtedly caused a large debt burden to some cities with insufficient financial resources.
In recent years, affected by factors such as the epidemic and the decline in land income, local debt problems have gradually been exposed. In order to prevent and resolve the risk of local government debt, the State Council recently issued a notice requiring 12 provinces and cities, including Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia, not to build new urban rail transit and urban (suburban) railway projects.
There are also requirements for those already under construction, although the total investment exceeds 50%, but there are major problems, the total investment does not exceed 30% should be postponed or stopped.
Judging from the previously released data, by the end of 2022, the top 15 debt ratios are Qinghai, Guizhou, Jilin, Gansu, Tianjin, Hainan, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Liaoning, Hebei, Guangxi, Chongqing, and the 12 provinces and cities named are among them, except for Tianjin, all from the west and northeast.
Among these 12 provinces and cities, many are still frantically building rail transit. In 2023, Chongqing will open 6 new lines or branch lines, with an additional mileage of more than 60 kilometers, becoming the biggest winner. This also makes it surpass Nanjing in terms of operating mileage, ranking eighth in the country.
Shenyang and Guiyang have also opened more than 40 kilometers of new mileage, Shenyang has surpassed Suzhou, ranking 14th in the country, and Guiyang has surpassed Changchun, Wuxi, Xiamen and Jinan.
However, some cities have been exposed to many problems because of borrowing to build rail transit. Previously, Kunming Metro was unable to pay wages because of its heavy debts. Recently, the Gansu Tianshui tram was named by the central government, blindly borrowing money, resulting in a huge waste of funds.
With the issuance of the notice, these 12 provinces and cities are not only not allowed to build new rail transit, but even those that have already started may be delayed or suspended.
Taking Chongqing as an example, the current operating mileage is close to 500 kilometers, and the operating mileage target is about 1,000 kilometers by 2025. A total of 12 subways, urban rail express lines, and suburban railways are under construction, and the latest will be opened in 2027. In addition, 32 rail transit lines are planned.
Judging from these plans and goals, in the next few years, the operating mileage of Chongqing rail transit will double the growth, which must be crazy. Now that the new requirements have been issued, it is also good to let it cool down for a while.
03
What other urban "subway dreams" are to be shattered?
In addition to the 12 provinces and cities that have been named, which other cities are about to shatter their "subway dreams"?
In 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) raised the approval threshold again, refusing to accept the first round of construction plans for cities and general prefecture-level cities that do not meet the conditions. That is to say, cities that do not meet the requirements of population, GDP, and fiscal revenue cannot be built, and even if they meet the standards, they cannot be built if they are general prefecture-level cities.
At present, there are 2 trillion GDP cities in the country without subways, one is Quanzhou, Fujian, and the other is Yantai, Shandong, which has just entered the trillion in 2023, both because the urban population is less than 3 million.
At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission also stipulates that if the passenger flow does not meet the standard after three years of operation, it cannot be submitted to the new round of construction plan. In 2023, more than 30 cities will start a new round of subway declarations, and if the passenger flow regulations are strictly followed, only 18 cities in the country will meet the standards, and other cities will not be able to apply for new subway construction.
Judging from the data released by the Ministry of Transport in December 2023, a large number of cities such as Nanjing, Qingdao, Tianjin, Shenyang, Suzhou, Dalian, Kunming, and Foshan have not met the daily passenger transport requirement of 07,000 passengers per kilometer, Wenzhou has only 1,000 passengers, Nantong has 2,000 passengers, Dalian has 2,700 passengers, Changzhou, Jinan and Foshan have 3,600 passengers, and Qingdao has 3,800 passengers.
There is no doubt that approvals for rail construction will be tightened further, and only megacities are expected to continue to expand in the coming years.