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China Research Network
What adjustments will be made to the mainland's monetary policy? What new measures will be introduced one after another to consolidate the positive trend of economic recovery? At a press conference held by the State Council New Office on 24 January, the relevant responsible person of the People's Bank of China gave a detailed analysis of this year's key work and responded to hot issues.
"Adhere to a prudent monetary policy, implement the requirements of flexibility, moderation, precision and effectiveness, and continue to create a good monetary and financial environment for the stable growth of the real economy. People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng reiterated the "prudent" monetary policy orientation at the press conference.
In the past year, the People's Bank of China has strengthened countercyclical adjustment in a timely manner, lowered the reserve requirement ratio twice and the policy interest rate twice, maintained reasonable and sufficient market liquidity, and strongly supported the development of the real economy. “
In the past few years, compared with the large monetary policy of developed economies, China's monetary policy operation has been relatively stable, and the monetary policy control and transmission mechanism has been continuously enriched and improved, creating conditions for sustainable support for economic development. Pan Gongsheng said that the People's Bank of China will continue to strengthen cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment, and take maintaining price stability and promoting a moderate recovery of prices as an important consideration in grasping monetary policy.
It is necessary to stick to the monetary policy objective and maintain the stability of the currency value to promote economic growth. The market widely predicts that the Fed's monetary policy will turn in 2024, what impact will this have on the mainland's monetary policy?"
China's monetary policy has always adhered to the principle of self-centeredness, while taking into account the balance between internal and external affairs. Pan Gongsheng gave the answer: in 2024, the spillover of monetary policy in developed economies will develop in the direction of reducing pressure, and the monetary policy cycle difference between China and the United States is converging, which is objectively conducive to enhancing the autonomy of China's monetary policy operation and expanding the space for monetary policy operation.
On the same day, the People's Bank of China announced that it would cut the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from February 5, and cut the interest rates of relending to farmers, relending to small enterprises, and rediscounting by 0.25 percentage points from January 25. “
At present, there is still enough room for the mainland's monetary policy, and we will balance the relationship between short-term and long-term, steady growth and risk prevention, and internal and external equilibrium, strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and create a good monetary and financial environment for economic operation. Pan Gongsheng said. Intensify efforts to do a good job in five major articles
To do a good job in the five major articles, it is necessary to pay attention to properly handling the relationship between the total amount and the structure and between the stock and the increment. Optimizing the credit structure and improving the efficiency of capital use have become frequently mentioned at the press conference, and are also the key tasks of the People's Bank of China in 2024.
Under the guidance of monetary policy, the credit structure of financial institutions continued to be optimized. As of the end of 2023, the balance of inclusive small and micro loans increased by 23.5% year-on-year, and the growth rates of loans to "specialized, special and new" and technology SMEs were 18.6% and 21.9%, respectively. The balance of medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry increased by 31.9% year-on-year, of which the growth rate of medium and long-term loans in the high-tech manufacturing industry reached 34%. Lending growth in these focus areas and weak areas was significantly higher than the 10.6% growth rate for all loans. “
In doing a good job in the five major articles, we should pay more attention to financial support for the development of the private economy. Zhu Hexin, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that while doing a good job in the transmission of policy incentives and service capacity building, it is necessary to grasp the diversified supply of funds, on the one hand, through traditional credit support, on the other hand, through direct financing markets such as bonds.
At the end of 2023, the balance of loans to privately held enterprises exceeded 41.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 950 billion yuan year-on-year. The weighted average interest rate on new loans to privately held companies in November 2023 was 4.24%, down 23 basis points from the same period last year. Regarding the credit situation in 2024, Xuan Changneng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said that considering that banks are seeking a "good start" and various policies continue to be effective in the second half of last year, it is expected that credit growth will still maintain relatively fast in the first quarter of this year. The People's Bank of China will guide financial institutions to grasp the rhythm and firmly support the real economy, and it is expected that the pace of credit distribution will be more balanced throughout the year.
It is understood that in 2023, the People's Bank of China will continue to play the dual functions of monetary policy tools and structure, strengthen tool innovation, and continue to guide financial institutions to do a good job in science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance. The People's Bank of China will set up a credit market department, focusing on the work related to five major articles.
Preventing and resolving financial risks is the eternal theme of financial work. Pan Gongsheng said that since last year, various departments and local governments have taken effective measures to actively resolve real estate and local debt risks. Under the guidance of the financial management department, financial institutions have made great efforts to support the stability of financing channels for real estate enterprises, especially leading real estate enterprises.
Pan Gongsheng revealed that the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision have issued relevant policies to improve operating property loans, support high-quality housing enterprises to revitalize existing assets, expand the scope of capital use, and improve liquidity conditions. In terms of coordinating financial opening and security, in recent years, the People's Bank of China has orderly promoted the opening of the financial services industry and financial market, enhanced exchange rate flexibility, improved macro-prudential management of cross-border capital flows, and maintained the smooth operation of the foreign exchange market.
It is reported that at present, the proportion of foreign exchange hedging of enterprises is about 25%, and the awareness of exchange rate hedging of enterprises has been significantly improved; RMB accounts for about 25% of cross-border trade receipts and payments, reducing the risk of currency mismatch. Zhu Hexin said that the People's Bank of China will continue to improve the two-in-one management framework of "macro-prudential + micro-supervision" in the foreign exchange market.
On the one hand, we will improve the monitoring and early warning response mechanism for cross-border capital flows, strengthen market communication and guidance on expectations, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate. On the other hand, we will strengthen the full coverage of supervision in the field of foreign exchange, strengthen cross-border RMB supervision, detect abnormal handling situations in a timely manner, and severely crack down on illegal activities.
The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11 to 12. The meeting demanded that next year, we should persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking down, and come up with more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, growth, and employment, and actively forging ahead in changing the mode, adjusting the structure, improving quality, and increasing efficiency, so as to continuously consolidate the foundation for stability and improvement. It is necessary to strengthen the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and strengthen the innovation and coordination of policy tools.
The advantages of e-RMB, such as its legal tender attributes, active promotion at the national level, and its own security and low cost, make the future popularity of e-RMB more certain.
The mainland's digital currency has entered a new stage of active promotion, and "steadily carrying out the pilot test of digital yuan" has become one of the ten key tasks of the People's Bank of China. At present, the six major state-owned banks have begun to promote digital yuan currency wallets, indicating that upstream suppliers will usher in incremental demand one after another.
According to the statistical analysis published by the Puhua Industry Research Institute of the China Research Institute:
Digital currency is an alternative currency in the form of electronic money, which is an unregulated, digital currency that is usually issued and managed by developers and is accepted and used by members of a specific virtual community.
The digital currency industry chain includes upstream basic chips and application technology-related industries, as well as security chips, security encryption and data security fields, midstream currency issuance industries (including digital currency issuers and bank IT industries), and downstream payment circulation and settlement fields, so the central bank's release of digital currency will drive the expansion of product upgrades and application scenarios in banking IT, data encryption, network security, payment terminals and other industries.
With the iterative optimization of technologies such as blockchain, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and big data, the issuance of digital yuan will help promote the transformation of financial infrastructure and play a positive role in the technological progress of the entire industry chain of the payment industry. In the context of breaking the monopoly of the mobile payment market, digital currency can accelerate the digital transformation of commercial banks.
In the development of the digital currency market, the collaborative relationship between blockchain technology and digital currency is very close, and it is also the key to the sustainable development of digital currency. Through the guarantee of blockchain technology, digital currency can ensure that transactions are more secure, privacy is more protected, transaction time and cost are lower.
These advantages have also made digital currencies gain more and more attention and trust. In the future, the digital currency market will have more opportunities and challenges, and will play an increasingly important role on a global scale.
The prospects of digital currencies at the application level are very broad, both in terms of cost and circulation. Whether it is fast and convenient payment, fund transfer and micropayment, digital currency will have a very important position in the future, and the impact should not be underestimated. In addition, the application fields of digital currency will also include consumer finance, bill finance, derivative finance and supply chain finance.
As an important part of the digital economy, the digital yuan has been written into the national "14th Five-Year Plan". Some industry analysts believe that as a revolutionary innovation pilot project in the financial IT industry, the digital yuan is reconstructing the entire financial payment ecology and bringing a longer-term industrial expansion logic. From the perspective of growth logic, the digital yuan will become a new digital infrastructure for the C-end, B-end and G-end, and build the payment base of the digital economy in the "14th Five-Year Plan".
At present, the implementation of C-end consumption scenarios is only the beginning, and the G-end and B-end are also gradually being incorporated, and the payment base of the national digital economy is forming, and related IT investment will rise in the long run.
Digital currency is the "currency" of the future digital world, and with the advancement of the digital transformation process of enterprises, more and more enterprises have successively mapped information on operation and management to the digital world. The introduction of a digital currency will also help promote the internationalization of the renminbi. Some industry insiders pointed out that the central bank digital currency is an important starting point for China's internal and external dual circulation model in the future.
On the one hand, digital currency will effectively promote the development of the domestic digital economy and reduce costs and increase efficiency for economic operation. On the other hand, the central bank digital currency will reshape the international settlement system and is an important tool for the internationalization of the RMB.
At present, the core logic of the development of the digital currency industry has not changed, and it is still to promote the new infrastructure of the digital economy and help build a digital China. In the future, with the continuous development of the digital currency market, its investment value will also continue to rise. At the same time, while strengthening regulation and security, the digital currency market also has the opportunity to become a mainstream investment variety.
In the future, the digital currency industry will face many opportunities and challenges, and the rapid development of digital currency can only be achieved by continuously cooperating with traditional finance and protecting the interests of users.
For more details about the industry, you can click to view the report of the China Research Institute of Puhua Industry Research Institute
Written by the China Research Institute of Puhua Research Institute, this report analyzes the supply and demand situation of the digital currency industry in mainland China, the development status of digital currency, and the development and changes of the digital currency sub-industry, focusing on the development status of the digital currency industry, how to face the development challenges of the industry, the development suggestions of the digital currency industry, the competitiveness of the digital currency industry, and the investment analysis and trend prediction of the industry. The digital currency report also synthesizes the overall development trends of the industry, and provides reference suggestions and specific solutions for the industry in terms of products.
The digital currency industry research report aims to start from the strategy of national economic and industrial development, analyze the future policy trend of digital currency and the development trend of the regulatory system, tap the market potential of the digital currency industry, and provide a vivid description of market changes from multiple perspectives such as industrial scale, industrial structure, regional structure, market competition, and industrial profitability based on in-depth research on key market segments, and clarify the development direction.
Pay attention to the headline "China Research Institute of Puhua Research Institute" and send a private message to "Industry Report" to get an excerpt from the report and come to discuss!
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