Straight News: The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council has decided to suspend tariff concessions for some products under the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) in accordance with regulations and procedures.
Special Commentator Liu Heping: In my comments a few days ago, I said that after the Ministry of Commerce determined that Taiwan's trade restrictions against the mainland constituted trade barriers, the mainland would definitely take targeted countermeasures and even retaliatory measures.
In my opinion, there are several details of the countermeasures introduced by the mainland that are particularly worthy of our attention, especially those of Taiwan businessmen, voters on the island, and the Tsai Ing-wen administration. The first is that the mainland has determined that Taiwan has unilaterally violated the ECFA agreement between the two sides of the strait, and at the same time violated WTO rules by banning the import of 2,509 goods from the mainland. However, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council only took punitive measures against 12 products such as propylene and paraxylene originating in Taiwan, that is, suspended the application of the agreed tariff rates of the "Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement". That is, instead of reciprocal retaliatory measures, the mainland took a completely disproportionate retaliatory measure. This also means that the mainland's action this time is more warning than practical, that is, all Taiwan businessmen and Taiwan people can not only feel the mainland's tolerance and generosity, but also have a certain sense of crisis.
Second, while making its decision, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council also added another sentence, that is, it hoped that the Taiwan region would take effective measures to lift trade restrictions on the mainland. In my opinion, on the surface, it seems that the mainland is hoping that the Taiwan authorities will lift the restrictive measures on goods exported to Taiwan from the mainland, but on a deeper level, this is actually the hope that the Taiwan authorities will improve the general political environment that affects the economic and trade development of the two sides of the strait. This is because when Ma Ying-jeou, who agreed with the "92 Consensus," and the Kuomintang were in power, the mainland did not initiate an investigation into trade barriers against Taiwan, let alone take retaliatory measures.
Third, the day before the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council took countermeasures against Taiwan's 12 kinds of goods exported to mainland China, Vice Minister of Commerce Guo Tingting also made a special point to say that she would consistently support Taiwan enterprises to invest in the mainland, and support Taiwan enterprises to do domestic sales and integrate into the domestic cycle. This is obviously a precautionary shot for Taiwan businessmen and tells them that although the mainland has taken countermeasures against a small amount of Taiwan goods, the mainland's general policy of promoting cross-strait economic and trade exchanges will not change, and the relevant policy of benefiting Taiwan will not change.
Straight News: The first TV political meeting of the 2024 election on the island was held yesterday (20th), what are your observations on the performance of Hou Youyi, the candidate of the Chinese Kuomintang?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: We know that in the past few years, when the KMT was fighting an election campaign, in order to avoid being "smeared" by the DPP, it was basically a little frightened or even deliberately avoided the issue of reunification and "independence." However, at last night's political opinion briefing, Hou Youyi not only took the initiative to raise this issue and confront it head-on, but also launched a fierce attack on the DPP candidate Lai Qingde. Obviously, the Kuomintang and Hou Youyi continue to want to turn this election campaign into a showdown between "reunification and independence" and "war and peace." In my opinion, there are three points in Hou Youyi's speech last night that deserve our close attention.
First, when talking about cross-strait relations, Hou Youyi, as always, did not mention the "consensus of '92," but he firmly advocated establishing the basic positioning of Taiwan and cross-strait relations within the framework of the island's basic laws and systems. Second, we know that in the past, a mantra that Tsai Ing-wen and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) often used to talk about was that the future and destiny of the island should be decided by the 23 million Taiwan people. This is markedly different from the mainland and Ma Ying-jeou's emphasis on using the "consensus of '92" to ensure cross-strait peace. What is particularly noteworthy is that at yesterday's political opinion conference, Hou Youyi basically spoke in Hokkien throughout the whole process, and rarely used Mandarin.
We know that in the past, there have always been differences and games in the Kuomintang on the cross-strait issue, one is the deep blue line represented by Lien Chan and advocates cross-strait reunification; the second is the middle line or blue line represented by Ma Ying-jeou and agrees with the "consensus of '92," which was once the mainstream of the KMT; and third, the localist line or light blue line represented by Wang Jinping. It is clear that, judging from Hou Youyi's speech, he has deviated from the middle line that the Kuomintang has always adhered to, and has moved towards the nativist line or the light blue line. If Hou Youyi is finally elected, this will undoubtedly have a considerable impact on the future relations between the KMT and the CPC and cross-strait relations, and deserves our close attention. As for whether this is Hou Youyi's personal choice or the decision of the entire Kuomintang, it remains to be seen.
Straight News: What kind of observations do you have on the performance of DPP candidate Lai Qingde?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: As I mentioned earlier, over the past few years, especially after the political map on the island has changed from green to blue, the "independence faction" has not only been in an offensive position on the issue of the game between reunification and "independence," but has also become more and more arrogant. Among the politicians of the Democratic Progressive Party, Lai Qingde, a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker," is undoubtedly the first bird among them. However, at last night's political meeting, in the face of Hou Youyi's fierce offensive on the issue of reunification and "independence," Lai Qingde, who was aggressive and stubbornly adhered to the "Taiwan independence" stance in the past, disappeared. In response to Hou Youyi's aggressive question about "whether he is willing to put an end to the 'Taiwan independence' party platform," Lai Qingde could only repeat the same old tunes, one is to criticize Hou Youyi for accepting the "'92 consensus," and the other is to equate the "'92 consensus" with "one country, two systems." In fact, in order to avoid Lai Qingde's "smearing" action, Hou Youyi made a targeted clarification at the beginning.
Why, then, has the situation turned around? Why has the issue of reunification and "independence," which used to be "grasped at once," become Lai Qingde's weakness and a hot potato that he is afraid of? I think there are three reasons for this: First, it is because it refuses to recognize the "consensus of '92" After Tsai Ing-wen came to power, the mainland has sent a clear political signal to the island through regular warship and plane patrols around Taiwan and by cutting off official and semi-official communication channels between the two sides of the strait; second, because the tension in cross-strait relations and the saber-rattling situation in the Taiwan Strait over the past few years have caused the vast majority of voters on the island, especially the middle voters, to have a deep sense of crisis, so much so that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has fought to "resist the mainland and protect Taiwan" Third, the Biden administration's attitude has changed in recent years, and it has not only openly made clear its stance of not supporting "Taiwan independence," but has also developed deep doubts about Lai Qingde, the "golden son of Taiwan independence." In particular, not long ago, three heavyweight scholars on US-China relations in the United States, including Grace Grae, published a joint article in Foreign Affairs magazine, an authoritative media in the United States, calling on DPP candidate Lai Ching-te to consider freezing the "Taiwan independence" party platform if he wins the election, so as to make the promise of "maintaining the status quo" more weighty and credible. In my opinion, this is actually not an appeal in the general sense, but a game of guidance for Lai Qingde and the DPP. Therefore, when the "backstage boss" of the United States has already spoken, Lai Qingde obviously does not dare to continue to be reckless and make trouble on the issue of reunification and "independence."
Straight News: What do you think of the performance of the People's Party candidate Ke Wenzhe?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think Ke Wenzhe's performance last night had the following characteristics - First, Ke Wenzhe seemed to have changed his unspeakable cannon character in the past and played the role of a "peacemaker". This kind of "peace" is not only manifested in the fact that there is no battlefield of reunification and "independence" opened up by Hou Youyi and Lai Qingde in terms of attitude, but also that it is a "peace" of "harmony," that is, the cross-strait peace advocated by Ko Wenzhe is a peace without presupposing any political stance, and it neither recognizes the "consensus of '92" nor advocates "Taiwan independence." Obviously, Ke Wenzhe's political stance is very appealing to some of the middle voters on the island.
Second, Ke Wenzhe not only focuses on the people's livelihood issues on the island, but also focuses on the issue of residential justice on the island. This is obviously to further curry favor with the island's young people, who face the biggest dilemma of not being able to afford a house. Third, there was a very interesting scene at last night's political meeting, that is, Hou Youyi neither praised Ke Wenzhe nor beat Ke Wenzhe, but only aimed the spearhead at Lai Qingde, and Ke Wenzhe also rarely basically did not beat Hou Youyi, but only beat Lai Qingde, forming a situation of Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe "two against one" against Lai Qingde. As for Lai Qingde, he opened the bow left and right, that is, he hit Hou Youyi on the left and Ke Wenzhe on the right. Obviously, Hou Youyi and Lai Qingde are competing for young people's votes. This also means that after the "blue and white combination" broke the game, "blue and white harmony" is faintly staged. This will be the single biggest variable that will ultimately dominate the outcome of this election.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".