Stimulate the purchase of a house in the cold, the country "moved"? From 2024, there may be three major problems in the property market

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Compared with last year and this year, I always have a faint feeling that for both homebuyers and homeless, 2024 is particularly important and must be paid more attention.

At first, I couldn't find the reason after thinking about it, but after seeing the two sets of data from the Middle Finger Research Institute, I understood.

1. As of the third quarter, the sales area of new houses in China's 100 cities this year fell by 2% year-on-year, hitting a new low in the same period of nearly seven years, but since September, the decline in second-hand housing prices in some cities such as Beijing and Shanghai has narrowed significantly.

2. At the same time, more than 200 provinces (cities) in China have issued real estate control policies more than 400 times, especially since July, showing a clear upward trend.

Based on this, it is not difficult to find.

It will definitely take time from the release of the policy to the effect, considering that the effect has not met expectations, and even the housing prices in some cities are still cold, it is not ruled out that the country will continue to amplify the possibility of recruitment.

As for the time, the probability may be 2024, and we need to pay attention.

01 / The country is going to "move the real thing", what is the content? Will it really drive down house prices?

Combined with the current information, if further measures are introduced, the probability will not start from the down payment, interest rate, provident fund and other aspects, because there have been too many introductions before, and the greater possibility is in the house price.

Let's look at it in two parts:

First, even real estate is no exception, and the pace of development will definitely slow down.

Undoubtedly, from the beginning of the century to 2020, mainland real estate has maintained a rapid growth trend all year round, with an average annual growth of 10.8% in the sales area of commercial housing and an average annual growth of 20.3% in sales. Even so, it is still difficult to escape the "industry curse", after rapid development, it is now slowly stable, which is not surprising, why some people use cold to describe the current real estate market.

Second, future demand and improvement will become the key support point for house prices.

Please distinguish clearly, investment and self-occupation are completely different things, and self-occupation means "just need and improvement".

According to data, the urbanization rate of the mainland's permanent population has just exceeded 65%, and if you count according to the household registration population, it is even only 47.7%. To be honest, the level is not very high.

In other words, there is still a lot of room for development in mainland urbanization in the future, but at the same time, it is necessary to weaken the proportion of financial investment, that is, to vigorously stimulate the rigid demand and improve the population.

Combined with October 18, the deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics clearly mentioned: "The role of the optimization policy of real estate is in continuous release and has a positive effect." ”

If the country wants to "move the real thing" in 2024, I think it is likely to focus on the transformation of second-hand housing, such as restricting house prices, severely cracking down on house speculation, and price reductions may be inevitable.

Recently, Zhangye, Gansu Province issued a document, which specifically mentioned the "second-hand housing group purchase activity", to put it bluntly, it is a disguised price reduction, as long as there is an effect, it does not rule out the possibility of other cities following suit.

02 / Once the stimulation of buying a house is cold, there may be 3 major problems in the property market!

I don't know if you have thought about it, looking at the essence through the surface, why compared with the high speed of buying a house in the past, now it is not just a decline, exaggerated to say that it is directly cold?

One of the important reasons is the sequelae of high housing prices, and to put it bluntly, they dare not buy a house. What is more worrying is that as long as the incentive to buy a house is ineffective, three problems may arise.

First of all, no amount of measures can withstand these three words: "dare not buy".

Previously, thanks to the continuous rise in house prices, although we all understood that house prices were on the high side, the overall environment always sent such a signal - buying a house can make money.

So many people with the psychology of gambling, and even were coaxed to buy a house. And the current situation is that even if house prices are still rising, we feel that we will lose money when we buy a house, and the final result is that we dare not buy.

Secondly, even if you can make money buying a house, it is difficult to sell it, and such money is not money at all.

I once heard the saying, "Money that doesn't get your hands is not money", which is really unreasonable. From the data, even if the house price rises by only 1%, it will be converted into cash at least 10,000 yuan.

But the problem is that all this is based on the premise that the house can be sold, and the current situation in many cities is that second-hand houses are difficult to sell, even if the house price rises more, it is only to face the data, which is meaningless.

Finally, the inventory of second-hand housing and the backlog of new houses continue to increase, and there will be a "price war" in house prices.

As I mentioned earlier, liquidity is the key support for real estate and house prices, which is equivalent to people's thighs. Once the amount of inventory and backlog area continues to increase, it will definitely affect house prices in the future.

The most direct embodiment is that the developer discounts and the owner reduces prices, either 9% or 8% off for sale, or to send parking spaces, free property fees, etc., to put it bluntly, it is a bit of a price war.

What do you think about this?

Welcome to friendly discussion!