The most relaxed moment in 40 years! The central bank issued three "king bombs" in a row, can it quickly boost the property market?

Xiao Hei said the room

2024-05-18 14:33Published in Chongqing

Today is May 18th, the first thunder of early summer resounded through the real estate market, the central bank issued three "king bombs" in a row to make the property market instantly "full of blood", with the feeling of taking off immediately.

Since the release of the blockbuster news yesterday, today's intermediary circle of friends continues to boil, just like chicken blood. The blockbuster positive property market is also reflected in the stock market, yesterday the real estate sector set off a "rising tide", a thriving scene, "real estate is back" this entry, today on the hot search. The three "kings" of the central bank, which have been hotly discussed in the market, will reduce the down payment ratio, cancel the lower limit of the mortgage interest rate, and reduce the interest rate of the provident fund loan, will they be able to reverse the downturn in the property market in the short term as the market expects?

As far as the policy itself is concerned, it has indeed come to the most relaxed time in history, even the down payment ratio for housing purchases that has lasted for 40 years has been lowered, the mortgage interest rate, whether it is a commercial loan or a provident fund loan, has also been in a historical position, the restrictive policies of the property market have been basically withdrawn, and the policy toolbox is still "new". It can be said that it is comparable to the wave of policy stimulus in 2015, and it may be more relaxed, but the difference is that the real estate situation in 2024 has changed, and the supply and demand pattern of "oversupply" has been formed.

I still remember that in 2008 and 2015, the general environment at that time was almost the same as today, so various stimulus policies to stimulate real estate came out, and then buyers flocked to it, for fear of being one step slower than others and missing the opportunity to double their wealth. It is true that many of the people who bought houses back then have appreciated their family wealth, and even achieved a class jump, creating a large number of wealthy people. But now it is different, the house is no longer an investment product, more people buy houses out of living needs, buyers are more rational, and they will not all come out to buy houses as soon as the policy comes out.

Whether it is in the property market or the stock market, there has always been a saying that there are three bottoms, the policy bottom, the emotional bottom and the market bottom. The central bank's three "king bombs" are not considered the bottom of the market, Xiao Hei dare not say anything, but the heated discussion caused by the introduction of the policy did ignite the emotion, and now the property market continues to be sluggish, in fact, the mood is sluggish, the market is expected to be sluggish, and the market sentiment consensus is optimistic, the only thing is to stabilize the house price, when the house price no longer falls, the mood will rise, and then the bottom of the market, that is, when the house price really bottoms out, then the property market will be completely stabilized.

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Personal opinion, for reference only