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Don't say I didn't warn you! In 2023, many industries and enterprises have undergone tremendous changes and adjustments, and the situation is not optimistic. Education, medical care, the Internet and other fields have seen painful situations such as layoffs, salary cuts, and transformations. These changes have had a serious impact not only on the income and career development of practitioners, but also on society and the economy.
So which jobs will be at greater risk of layoffs in the coming years? How will ordinary people face this risk? First, we cannot ignore the impact of technological innovation. The rapid development of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, the Internet of Things, and blockchain has made more and more jobs replaced or assisted by machines or software.
Industries such as banking, insurance, and finance are improving efficiency and reducing costs through automation, intelligence, digitalization and other means, thereby reducing the demand for manpower. Industries such as construction, manufacturing, and logistics improve productivity and safety through devices such as robots, unmanned vehicles, and drones, thereby reducing the need for manual operations. Education, healthcare, entertainment and other fields are using online platforms, virtual reality, augmented reality and other technologies to expand the scope of services and enhance the user experience, thereby reducing the need for physical places and people. According to a study of 41 countries and territories around the world, there will be 8.56 billion jobs worldwide by 2025, of which 52% will be done by humans and 48% by machines or algorithms.
Compared to 2018, the number of jobs occupied by humans will be 6.4%, while the number of jobs occupied by machines or algorithms will increase by 6.4%. This means that between 75 million and 375 million jobs could be replaced by machines or algorithms in the next few years. Therefore, those jobs that are highly repetitive, less creative, highly regular, and highly standardized will face greater risk of layoffs.
Second, policy regulation will also have a significant impact on the work of certain industries.
As national and local governments increase supervision in some key and sensitive areas, some industries and enterprises that do not meet regulations or standards will face pressure to rectify or withdraw. The education industry has been hit by the "double reduction" policy, that is, reducing the extracurricular burden of primary and secondary school students and reducing the profit space of training institutions. This has led to many training institutions closing their doors or having to change careers, which directly affects the income and employment prospects of practitioners. The real estate industry is limited by the "three red lines" policy, that is, limiting the asset-liability ratio, net debt ratio and cash short-debt ratio of housing enterprises. This has led to many housing companies having to reduce the scale of investment and sales prices, which directly affects the commission and bonus of practitioners.
Changing consumer demands have had a profound impact on all walks of life. Today's market competition is becoming more and more fierce, and those industries and enterprises that cannot keep up with the pace of the times will find it difficult to survive.
The "anti-monopoly" policy mentioned in the preface is to protect the rights and interests of consumers and avoid market abuse by Internet giants. This also means that many Internet companies will face penalties or rectification, and the performance and equity of practitioners will also be affected.
In contrast, those industries and enterprises that are supported or encouraged by policies have more opportunities for development.
For example, the new energy automobile industry, the biomedical industry, and the cultural and creative industry.
On the other hand, the pressure of market competition has also had an impact on the work of various industries. Market competition is to compete for limited demand, and it will have both pros and cons for some industries and enterprises.
The traditional retail industry has been hit by e-commerce platforms, and many physical stores have closed or transformed; The traditional media industry has been impacted by self-media platforms, and newspapers and magazines have emerged one after another; The traditional catering industry has been hit by takeaway platforms, and restaurants have fallen into trouble.
For those industries and businesses that lack innovation and competitiveness, there will be a greater risk of layoffs.
For example, clerks, cashiers, and warehouse managers in traditional retail stores; journalists, editors, photographers from traditional media organizations; Chefs, waiters, dishwashers in traditional restaurants. Those industries and enterprises that can adapt to market changes and continuous innovation will have more development prospects, such as e-commerce platforms, self-media platforms, takeaway platforms, etc.
With the improvement of consumer income and consumption concepts, high-end and personalized goods and services will receive more attention, while low-end and homogeneous goods and services will gradually lose the market.
The tourism industry is favored by high-end customized tours and themed tours, while the market share of guided tours and independent tours has declined. The beauty industry is sought after by medical beauty and microsurgery, and sales of cosmetics and beauty salons have declined; The entertainment industry is sought after by live streaming and short videos, and ratings for TV series and movies are declining.
Industries and companies that cannot meet the high-quality and personalized needs of consumers will face greater risk of layoffs. Regardless of the industry, adapting to change and meeting consumer needs is critical. In a few years, some industries will face a wave of layoffs, including travel agency jobs such as tour guides, planners and drivers; jobs in beauty salons, such as beauticians, manicurists, and hairstylists; and jobs in television stations, such as actors, directors and screenwriters.
In contrast, industries and businesses that can provide consumers with high-value and unique experiences, such as custom travel companies, aesthetic clinics and live streaming platforms, will have greater market potential.
In summary, the next few years will face large-scale layoffs in four types of jobs, the first of which is affected by technological innovation, followed by work affected by policy regulation, work affected by market competition, and work affected by consumer demand. The common feature of these efforts is the lack of core competencies and differentiation. Therefore, ordinary people need to prepare in advance to face this future change.
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