#财经新势力#
The information is getting more and more frightening.
Initially, some scholars in the United States warned about China's economy, which was recognized by politicians, followed by France, and then by the Australian treasurer, who agreed that China's economy was slowing.
Now that the drum of economic decline has been beaten, China must certainly respond.
Cong Liang of the National Development and Reform Commission said: "Since the beginning of this year, prices have still been running at a low level and need to be paid attention to, but comprehensively judging from the factors such as price level, demand recovery, economic growth, and money supply, there is no so-called deflation in China's economy, and there will be no deflation in the later stage." ”
[Cool Drag]
This conclusion is completely correct.
Why is it so certain, because the future that China really faces is not deflation, but inflation.
In fact, the Chinese economy has a puzzle.
From the data point of view, there is a duality. Looking at the supply side, looking at monetary policy, there is no problem of deflation at all; M2 is not contracting, but has been expanding at a double-digit level, GDP growth rate of 5.5%, this level should not be too optimistic, because it is a year-on-year, last year's base was low, this year repaired, does not mean that the trend has reversed, but it will not become deflation.
There is no deflation on the supply side, why do Western scholars and politicians agree that there is deflation?
This is the puzzle of China's economy, the strong supply side is the intervention of administrative forces, the demand side of the market is indeed very weak, and it does have the characteristics of deflation. The strength of the national economy can define the supply side, can not define the demand side, decode China's economy is good or bad, of course, it depends on the demand side, there is no demand, what economy is it fighting? Building is very crazy, does not mean that the economy is crazy, if it cannot be sold, market demand does not respond, it is an unsustainable deadlock.
[Think]
What data is worth watching?
The terrible thing is that a lot of data has disappeared, so catch which one to use.
Profit of industrial enterprises: From January to June 2023, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country was 3,388.46 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year, and the compound growth rate for two years was -8.3%. In June, the profit of industrial enterprises fell by 8.3% year-on-year, and the two-year compound growth rate was -3.8%.
Youth unemployment rate: three new highs this year, 21.4% in July, the United States, which was also sung by various countries in the same period, only 6%, South Korea's real estate collapse, only 5%, and China's data, the people think is not true, this is difficult to compare, but in this time window, after August, the Bureau of Statistics no longer reports the youth unemployment index.
Real estate sales: Don't take real estate seriously, no matter how much you hate it, it is a top priority for the Chinese economy. House sales are also on a downward trend. 2021 was a peak year for sales of 1.8 billion square meters, which is also a landmark turning point for the Chinese economy; In 2022, the sales volume will be greatly reduced, to 1.3 billion square meters, 500 million less; The sales area in the first eight months was more than 600 million square meters, and if there is no big move, it will not exceed 1 billion square meters within the year. Recognizing a house or not recognizing a loan has no miraculous effect, and the next step is to completely relax the restrictions in first-tier cities, which is more like a battle of trapped beasts, and you can't look forward to it too much.
These important data are not ideal, good or bad, just like throwing stones into the lake, when the waves are guided to the shore, it is entirely possible to infer from the waves on the shore whether the central area is a rough wave? The small fortunes of thousands of individuals, in the midst of countless accidents, inevitability will also be revealed.
As Cong Liang said: "It should be noted that after three years of the epidemic, China's economic operation will still be affected by various internal and external factors, and economic recovery must be a process of wave-like development and tortuous progress." ”
[Fear]
Why is there a divergence between supply and demand growth?
This is determined by non-market behavior.
It is not that China's economy has really lost its endogenous strength, but that there has been a structural misallocation of resources.
China's economy has always been investment-driven, and in the past, private investment was strong, and the structural impact was not felt. Since 2012, the growth rate of private investment has been declining by double digits. China is a typical investment-oriented economy, which is probably what Lin Yifu said about the promising government, the average proportion of investment in GDP in Western developed countries is 20%, economic growth mainly depends on consumption, China's proportion is as high as 50%, private capital withdrawal, it is necessary to increase the investment of state-owned capital in the form of debt. Capital and bank interest rates are non-neutral, not according to the market regulation flow efficiency and people's livelihood, but ownership as the watershed of the policy, led by state-owned enterprises.
This is an inefficient option and does not pass on to people's livelihood, because state-owned enterprises support only 7% of employment, and China's middle-income class is mainly in private enterprises.
The non-neutral choice determines the inefficient and huge supply, and also determines the weak horse of consumption, unable to support the car piled up with investment, and cannot run.
If China has deflation, it can only be said that it is Chinese-style deflation, which is false overproduction.
On the contrary, huge investment has brought huge debts, especially in the real estate industry, state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, local governments and ordinary people are heavily indebted, and eventually cannot escape inflation to resolve.
[Come on]
China's future will not be deflationary.
A large amount of money in the market has formed a liquidity trap, and Cong Liang's conclusion is completely correct, which is a powerful counterattack to the West's singing of the Chinese theory, "There is no so-called deflation in the Chinese economy, and there will be no deflation in the later period."
China's most serious problem is real estate, which cannot be sold and can only be supported by high debt. The ultimate choice is Zunyi City Investment's template, which extends the debt for 20 years, only repaying interest in the first 10 years, repaying the principal in the next 10 years, and 20 years of universal superposition, hedging the property market bubble with a relatively mild currency bubble, and gradually diluting the huge debt.
Of course, this does not mean that Evergrande can also enjoy the dividends of the policy, with the strong support of the sixteen articles of finance, private enterprises are evil capitalists, many urban land plots have been unconditionally recovered, Evergrande lost 80 million yuan in two years, unable to return to the sky. The future of real estate will be the domain of state-owned enterprises, and 90% of housing enterprises will be written off. Is it that the veterans of private enterprises hang up, and real estate can get out of the predicament? The probability is that there is one less Evergrande that all netizens denounce, the debt ratio is hidden, and the people do not know when there will be a dimensionality reduction blow. However, the explicit risk has turned to the hidden one, and the inherent contradictions of real estate have not been resolved; The ultimate solution to high debt in real estate can only be inflation.
There is no such thing as deflation in the Chinese economy: but inflation is not excluded.
For ordinary people, whether it is deflation or inflation, the most important thing is to keep their jobs.