In the "Shoulder to Shoulder-24" exercise held by the United States and the Philippines this time, there is a very dangerous theme of the exercise, that is, the exercise of seizing the island. As soon as the exercise ended yesterday, the US warship on the front foot made a forced intrusion into the mainland's Xisha Islands, and the Philippines followed closely behind, sending a Japanese-built patrol ship "Teresa Magbanua" to the South China Sea.
However, this time it was not Ren'ai Jiao or Scarborough Shoal, but ran to a "new battlefield" Xianbin Jiao. Obviously, after Ren'ai Jiao, Scarborough Shoal, Horseshoe Crab Reef and other islands and reefs, the Philippines has changed its target.
According to satellite photography, the warship appeared in the waters of Xianbin Reef around April 27 and has been here for half a month. After the Philippine ship arrived at Xianbin Reef, the mainland's 3303 coast guard ship also arrived immediately and followed and supervised it throughout the process. After that, the Philippine ships stopped here, and the mainland also began to dispatch a large number of ships, mainly the 3303 and 4202 coast guard ships as the main force, as well as more than a dozen other Chinese civilian ships, or even more. It is worth mentioning that the 3303 and 4202 ships have very strong firepower, which is more than enough to deal with Philippine ships.
So far, these ships have formed an all-round encirclement, encircling the Philippine ships. It can be said that without the permission of the Chinese side, this ship does not want to leave.
Change tactics and strike at the west
This is not the first time that China and the Philippines have clashed at Sembin Reef, in fact, this conflict began in the 90s of the last century. It is about 60 kilometers away from Second Thomas Reef, about 160 kilometers from Palawan Island in the Philippines, and about 100 kilometers away from Mischief Island. The location is very close to the Philippines, so the Philippines has been thinking about it for a long time.
Moreover, there is the possibility of land reclamation here, once the Chinese side reclaims land here and deploys it as a second military base on Mischief Island, then the Philippines will not want to do anything in Ren'ai Jiao in the future, so the Philippines attaches great importance to this place. In the past, the Philippines often sent ships here, but the intensity of the disturbance was not large, at most it was just a "visit here".
After all, they have been focusing on Ren'ai Jiao before, thinking that they will first achieve permanent occupation of this place, and then illegally occupy other Nansha islands and reefs. Now, however, the Philippines is gradually realizing that even if it sends all its troops at once, it will not be a match for the Chinese Coast Guard at all.
Although the United States has often said that it will support the Philippines, Marcos knows very well that the US military will never end up. If it only supports some weapons and equipment, according to the combat effectiveness of the Philippine army, the victory rate is not large. Therefore, the Philippines can only change its strategy now and adopt the method of attacking the east to increase the possibility of seizing the island.
For example, the Philippines divides its forces into three parts, one to Ren'ai Jiao, one to Scarborough Shoal, and the remaining part to stay at Xianbin Jiao. When it came time to make trouble, one of the two sides made a stronger disturbance, forcing the Chinese side to draw police forces from elsewhere for defense, and then the Philippine army in the other place made every effort to break through the weak defense line of the Chinese coast guard and take the islands and reefs.
In this way, even if the other two places cannot be taken down, the Philippines has at least achieved illegal occupation of one island and reef. Therefore, in the future, China and the Philippines will not only have frequent conflicts at Scarborough Shoal and Ren'ai Jiao, but will even have a "new flashpoint".
Because neither Chinese nor Philippine officials have responded to this incident, we can only vaguely understand the situation at Xianbin Reef based on the images taken by satellites. The reason why I say "blurry" is mainly because the pictures taken by the satellites can only see the number of ships, and cannot clearly see the specific situation in the Xianbin Reef, such as whether there has been a conflict between Chinese and Philippine ships.
The Philippines will dispatch 100 civilian ships, and the Chinese Coast Guard "comes to life"
Four days later, on May 15, a coalition in the Philippines called Atin Ito will send 100 civilian fishing boats to Scarborough Shoal. At that time, the Chinese coast guard will inevitably send a large number of ships to surround it, so that the Chinese coast guard's defense against other islands and reefs will become very weak.
Marcos probably wants to use this "opportunity" to seize an island and reef to prove to the world that the Philippines is strong and that the Philippines is not so weak.
However, the Philippines is too simplistic: a few military and civilian vessels will not be able to disperse the Chinese coast guard's police force, let alone weaken the Chinese coast guard's defense line on Ren'ai Jiao, Scarborough Shoal and Xianbin Jiao. What's more, even if the Chinese coast guard is dispersed, we still have the PLA.
At that time, the air force and navy will be dispatched to suppress the Philippine ships from both the sea and the air side, so that they will not dare to provoke again.
According to the official information, our army has deployed 2-3 055 large drives in the South China Sea, as well as other missile destroyers, frigates, integrated supply ships and other ships, not to mention dealing with a Philippines, even against the US military.
The whole world can see that China's military strength has reached a state of almost parity with the United States, and even in some weapons and equipment, the PLA is more advanced in technology and faster firepower.
On the other hand, the US side is in economic decay and serious inflation, and the construction of warships is not as good as before. At present, the US military cannot even exterminate the Houthis, and the Philippines wants to sit on the "chariot" of the United States and make trouble, and the final result will inevitably be a fiasco.
Judging from the recent actions of the Philippines in the South China Sea, the situation in the South China Sea in the future is bound to be treacherous and full of "war situations". As a new "flashpoint" between China and the Philippines, even if our side has fully controlled the control of Xianbin Jiao, the Philippines will certainly not give up, and will inevitably come here every once in a while to find trouble. If this is the case, it is very likely that our side will directly fill in the Xianbin Reef as an island and build a military base, thus completely destroying the Philippines' mind.