At present, the international situation is becoming more and more complex, geopolitically unstable and bilateral relations are changeable. The international situation began to change abruptly, and the East and the West wrestled, resulting in a rift between the original political relationship and international status, and a new symbiotic relationship emerged. Among them, Russia is the worst, a war that shocks Russia's traditional geopolitics, changes in dependent countries, and the situation gets out of control.
Among them, Kazakhstan, known as the hardcore brother, the leader of Central Asia, is the most heartbroken by Russia. He is more repeated than India, more cunning than Turkey, why can he still be tolerated by Russia? What is Tokayev's secret to make himself invincible?
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has led to the loosening of Central Asia's self-reliance
The most complicated thing is politics, and the most difficult thing is international relations. No wonder someone concluded that there are no best brothers, only eternal interests. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine can be regarded as a war to interpret the relationship of international interests. Russia is in a war situation, and progress is not good. At this time, in the face of Ukraine, which is fully supported by the United States and NATO, it is very passive.
Not only is the international situation unfavorable, but even the issue of energy exports is restricted. It can be said that Russia uses the power of one country to resist the suppression of the world's power, and it is somewhat weak and helpless. Russia is trapped, allowing regions such as Russia-controlled Central Asia to achieve self-reliance. Outer Mongolia is a clear example of this, taking advantage of the power vacuum to quickly contact the United States and interrupt Russian influence.
Coincidentally, Kazakhstan, a Central Asian power, is also seeking to get rid of Russia and pursue its own special interests in this unbinding. If you want to get rid of Russian control, you need special interests in Western countries, as well as American support. Tokayev's political moves are not wrong, but the timing and circumstances do not allow. This is a tightrope walk, and a mistake will bring Kazakhstan into danger.
Kazakhstan is in a critical situation
Kazakhstan is located at the crossroads of the Eurasian continent, and geopolitics is crucial. Tokayev's choice cannot be said to be wrong, but it is necessary to see his position and strength. The first is the geopolitical issue, which has always been a member of the Soviet Union, controlled and profited. Even if the USSR collapsed, it was deeply tied to Russia.
It was predicted that as long as Russia merged with Ukraine and Kazakhstan, the glory of the Soviet Union would reappear. It can be seen that he was labeled as the Soviet Union and was also an important revival force in Russia. It is dangerous to now want to stand on its own feet, start contacting the EU and the United States, and choose to change positions.
The second is the economic problem, which is deep integration with Russia, and half of the necessities of life are supplied by Russia. It is not that it can be broken, and it cannot be freed from Russia's economic influence. Third, the United States and the European Union only use him, and do not have the will to support him to become bigger and stronger. At the same time, the allies are unreliable, and the Kazakh position is awkward.
Finally, Tokayev's political judgment is limited, and now seeking benefits is only short-term gain. Once Russia ends the war, or frees its hands, his situation will be more passive and dangerous.
Tokayev's behavior toward Russia not only hurt Russia's feelings, but also made the United States and Western countries have a bad perception of him. If there is no use, everything he has done will be destroyed. Now verbally pledging to support Russia, in fact, cooperating with the United States and the West, opposing Russian energy weapons, unilaterally conducting energy transactions with the West. He also opposed Russia's plan to control the four continents of East Ukraine and enter Russia. Having put himself in a passive situation, he also knew that he was playing with fire.
Now it is also being détente, and if it is not possible to completely abandon Russia by defecting to the West, and imitate Turkey, it is not a crime to sit on the fisherman's profit, it can only be said that the political means are too naïve. He doesn't have the strength, he doesn't have that sensitive political vision.
Kazakhstan is no match for India and Turkey
Compared with India, it lacks the advantages of great power and population, as well as the advantages of a geopolitical power. India is not a threat and is still a purely comprador country. The West and the United States support it because of India's firm anti-China stance, and likewise, it does not exclude China, but actively participates in China-led international organizations. It can be seen that India is a pragmatic country, and even then he did not oppose Russia, which belongs to the typical long-distance and close-up attack routine. He jumps between China and the West and has become accustomed.
Turkey is in a special position, and the Strait of Hormuz controls the Black Sea lanes, giving it its own special influence. Control the energy and food channels, naturally dare to have the confidence to flop. The United States and the West can only follow the point, this is the lifeblood is pinched, and they have to tolerate. Russia has to be friendly, this is not the treatment that Kazakhstan can have.
epilogue
Kazakhstan is very passive at this time, so playing with fire will not only fail to achieve the goal, but also completely interrupt the rise process. Russia stabilizes the situation and will certainly carry out actions to suppress traitors. NATO and the United States need him to create problems for Russia and support Ukraine, and if this is not achieved, then he is a given role.
He wants to play geopolitics, and can only say that he chose the wrong person, or the tragedy of the landlocked country. If you want to play without relying on it, you can only say that it is very tragic and passive. Tokayev's dynasty will put Kazakhstan in danger because of his dangerous actions. If you do not turn the rudder in time, the situation will only worsen. Short-sightedness is the greatest tragedy, without capital, do not go blind.
- Author: Haiko
- Editor: Shanhai