According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China's high-level officials will soon visit Kazakhstan and other three Central Asian countries. As part of the high-level diplomacy between China and Kazakhstan this year, it is foreseeable that this visit will certainly play a role in promoting the stable development of bilateral relations. Of course, before the high-level visit of the Chinese side, Kazakhstan had already prepared a generous gift. #军史观察团#
A few days ago, Kazakh Ambassador to Russia Abayev revealed that Russia and Kazakhstan will build a new pipeline to supply gas to China. According to Abayev, the current road map for transit through Kazakhstan has been signed, and construction may start when details such as construction time and price are negotiated. Once completed, the pipeline is expected to deliver up to 35 billion cubic meters of gas to China per year, which is equivalent to the amount of gas transported by the Sino-Russian "Power of Siberia" eastern natural gas pipeline.
Of course, although foreign media pointed out that this is the first time that Russia will transit Kazakhstan to supply gas to China, according to normal logic, China, Russia and Kazakhstan must have had a long discussion about such a large gas pipeline project. The fact that Kazakhstan is the first to announce it to the outside world mostly indicates that, at least for now, both Russia and Kazakhstan should have a positive attitude towards the construction of the pipeline. In this case, Kazakhstan naturally hopes to finalize the relevant details with China and Russia, especially with the Chinese side, as soon as possible.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Spain has continuously escalated sanctions against Russia, which has caused Russia's gas supply to Europe to drop significantly. Russia previously wanted to optimize the existing gas supply pipelines between China and Russia, in the final analysis, it wanted to increase the gas supply as much as possible. Based on such a situation, if the pipeline through Kazakhstan can be implemented as soon as possible, it will naturally be good news for Russia. And with Kazakhstan showing strong interest, the Russian side may not give certain concessions in terms of gas prices. In this way, if the pipeline wants to speed up, China's attitude is crucial.
You know, Russia has been preparing to build a new energy line with China for many years. It's just that Russia will insist on transiting through Mongolia, which has caused the relevant plan to be delayed again and again. From a practical point of view, the reason why the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline between China and Russia through Mongolia has not been negotiated for a long time is that in addition to the price, Mongolia's instability factor is the biggest obstacle.
In the past, Mongolia has always placed China and Russia on an equal footing with "third neighbors" such as the United States and France, trying to maximize its interests through a so-called balancing policy. However, anyone with a discerning eye knows that Western countries are trying their best to win over Mongolia just because they take a fancy to Mongolia's special geographical location in order to achieve the goal of containing China and Russia. The recent proposal by the United States to build a military base in Mongolia is one of the best proofs of this. It is simply unrealistic for Mongolia to want to maintain some kind of balance. The risk of China and Russia handing over the main artery of their energy lifeline to a country that could be affected by Western countries at any time is not low.
It is undeniable that Kazakhstan has previously shown a proximity to the West. But based on a framework like the SCO, Kazakhstan is clearly more willing to trust China and Russia, at least when it comes to security. Mongolia, by contrast, is an observer state of the SCO, but it has maintained the status quo and has not been willing to become a full member for decades. In addition, although Mongolia maintains close economic and trade ties with China and Russia, it has not been moved by the fact that dozens of countries, including Kazakhstan, have applied to join the BRICS. Not only that, Mongolia has gone the opposite way, strengthening economic and trade ties with the United States, Germany and France and other Western countries.
Therefore, although we cannot be sure that there is no risk of transiting Kazakhstan for the energy lifeline of China and Russia, at present, the risk of transiting through Kazakhstan should be lower than that of transiting Mongolia. This can also be seen from the fact that Russia has repeatedly signaled cooperation with Mongolia on natural gas projects, and the latter has not taken many practical actions.
Moreover, the strong interest shown by the Kazakhstan side at this time can also give China and Russia more initiative. If Mongolia is still unable to respond to China and Russia with concrete actions, China and Russia can consider focusing more on gas pipelines transiting Kazakhstan. No matter what the three countries can ultimately negotiate, at least it will not drag on like the pipeline through Mongolia.
In particular, the attitude of Kazakhstan may also make Russia change its mind of insisting on transiting Mongolia to supply gas to China. Geopolitically, Mongolia is geographically positioned right there, and Russia is likely to prioritize strengthening its influence in Central Asia.
In short, even if China, Russia and Kazakhstan reach cooperation, it will not affect China's relations with Mongolia. As long as Mongolia is sincere, the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline is also feasible.