As early as the end of last month, the South Korean Foreign Ministry announced that they were coordinating with the Chinese side about South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Doi-yeol's visit to China. Not long ago, the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs updated the progress again, saying that Cho Die-yeol's visit to China has been put on the agenda. Judging by the results, South Korea has waited. On the 10th of this month, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially announced that Zhao Duilie would visit China. From May 13th to 14th, it will last for two days. According to South Korean media, China-South Korea bilateral relations and the North Korean issue are expected to be the focus of discussions between the two sides during the period. #军史观察团#
Of course, as the South Korean media said, a very important reason why the Yoon Suk-yeol government is so eager to arrange Cho Tae-yeol's visit to China is that South Korea really wants to have in-depth discussions with the Chinese side on the North Korean issue. As for the reason, we might as well take a look at what the Pentagon has said recently.
On May 8, local time, the commander of the North American Air Defense Command, Gillott, issued a warning at the Senate hearing on the same day, saying that the United States does not know how many intercontinental missile reserves North Korea has, but considering that North Korea continues to improve its reserves, this means that North Korea may already have an intercontinental missile stockpile close to the limit of US defense.
Last year, the DPRK successfully test-fired the Hwasong-18 intercontinental missile, which is reported to have the capability to strike the US mainland. Based on this background, the implication of Gillott's remarks may be that once the situation on the peninsula gets out of control, even the United States itself is likely not to be spared.
It is worth mentioning that at the hearing on the same day, Ghiott also said that with the equipment currently owned by the United States, the United States would not be able to defend itself against a scale similar to the one launched by Iran against Israel in April. It can be said that it is not uncommon for the United States to "admit cowardice" to the two hostile countries of the DPRK and Iran one after another.
Considering that the Pentagon has repeatedly hyped up the "China threat theory" in the past to ask Congress for money, it is possible that Gillott's above-mentioned statement is a repeat of the Pentagon's old tricks. After all, in order to ask for money, the US military is racking its brains to find a way. For example, when the United States previously deployed medium-range missiles to the Philippines to deal with the so-called "China threat", some analysts believed that this move may be the US Army's desire to attract more attention. Therefore, it is completely logical for the Pentagon to hype up the "North Korea threat theory" and ask Congress for money.
However, for South Korea, they dare not bet. If South Korea continues to maintain a tough stance toward North Korea, South Korea will immediately find itself in a difficult position if the United States withdraws for fear of a North Korean missile attack. With North Korea dismantling a series of important institutions in South Korea and treating South Korea as an enemy and no longer talking about peace, the current smell of gunpowder on the peninsula is already very strong. Under such circumstances, the Pentagon's sudden act is tantamount to catching South Korea off guard.
Since the United States is unreliable, or South Korea is not sure whether the United States can be relied on for the time being, South Korea can only turn to China again in order to avoid further danger, that is, let China intervene to cool the tension on the peninsula. Only in this way will the ROK continue to exercise military deterrence against the DPRK in the future or sit down at the negotiating table with the DPRK in the future.
Of course, in addition to South Korea's desire to turn to China on security issues, Yoon Suk-yeol is also facing a serious political crisis. Affected by the parliamentary election, Yoon Suk-yeol's poll approval rating has been below 30% in the past month. Especially in the latest polls, his approval rating has once again set a new record, only 24%. For Yoon, it would be a win-win-win-kill affair if he could build relations with China, an important trading partner, by arranging a visit to China by Cho and ease tensions with North Korea with China's help.
After Yoon Suk-yeol took office, his diplomacy can be said to have almost completely tilted towards the United States and Japan, which has made the country's China policy basically dominated by the United States and Japan. The ripple effect was that South Korea's exports to China plummeted 20 percent last year from the same period last year. Not only that, but also last year, South Korea once again had a trade deficit with China after more than 30 years. As an export-oriented economy, the impact of such a situation on South Korea's economy can be imagined.
Therefore, in addition to asking China to intervene on the Korean Peninsula issue, Zhao is likely to discuss with China on the China-Japan-South Korea summit. From a geopolitical point of view, if the relations between China, Japan, and the ROK are well established, it will play a positive role in regional economic development, security, and stability. In this way, Yin Xiyue's current internal and external troubles can be effectively alleviated.
However, whether South Korea wants to improve China-South Korea relations or to cool tensions on the peninsula, it should take meaningful actions to create conditions for relevant dialogue. If South Korea only wants to solve its urgent needs, it may not be able to get what it wants from China.