As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, the problem of insufficient weapons in Ukraine is becoming more and more serious.
In the case that NATO's military industrial capacity cannot keep up and the ammunition depot is empty, the Ukrainian soldiers can only use fewer and fewer shells.
In stark contrast to Ukraine, Russia has bought another $4 billion worth of weapons in the last six months, which, notably, are not taken from North Korea or Iran, but from India.
Indian military factory
Although everyone usually ridicules India's weapons as "made in all countries" and uses a large number of foreign weapon parts, there is no doubt that India is also a major military industrial country in the world.
India has nine large ammunition production groups, and at least self-sufficiency in artillery ammunition can be achieved.
Now that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is raging, and India is not fighting, it is normal to export some weapons to Russia.
Russian-Indian arms trade
However, as for India's arms export to Russia, two issues are involved, which makes people laugh.
The first issue is the matter of Russian arms exports to India. Because of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's arms exports to India have been cut off.
Indian Su-30
India has a lot of Su-30 fighters, but India itself does not have the ability to produce all the core components, and Russia needs to provide relevant parts for it.
But as soon as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict hits, Russia's little production capacity is all used to support the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. As a result, many Su-30 parts that should have been delivered to India were used by Russia itself.
Then there was a situation where the accuracy rate of Indian Su-30 fighters plummeted and began to be grounded in large numbers.
At present, at least half of India's Su-30 is lying in the nest, and it can be said that the influence of Russia's supply of parts is very huge.
Indian Su-30
Originally, this matter was nothing, after all, India's weapons were already famous, and the Russian side was interfered with by force majeure factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and it can only be said that a variety of factors were superimposed to cause this "accident".
But this matter is a bad thing, and India is supplying weapons to Russia at the same time.
On the one hand, Russia's supply of spare parts has led to the grounding of Indian fighters, and on the other hand, Russia's military industry has insufficient production capacity, which requires India's military industry to be unable to be independent and dependent on its own country to help, making Russia and India inexplicably like a pair of sleeping dragons and phoenixes.
Russian-Indian diplomacy
The attitude of the United States
The second question is the reaction of the United States.
As we all know, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States used a lot of non-military means to fight Russia.
These non-military means include economic sanctions against Russia, diplomatic encirclement of Russia, strikes against Russia in public opinion, and so on.
At that time, the United States could be said to have resorted to any trick in order to attack Russia, and the biggest impact was undoubtedly to kick Russia out of the SWIFT system.
Conceptual diagram of the SWIFT system
The SWIFT system is an international currency settlement system, and Russia was kicked out of this system, which is equivalent to the United States not allowing Russia to settle trade in US dollars.
Then the problem is huge. It's like a loan shark for a start-up, and suddenly no one is allowed to do business, so why should they borrow money?
Therefore, the consequences of the United States kicking Russia out of the SWIFT system are two-way, and it is not as convenient for Russia to conduct international trade as before, which seriously interferes with Russia's foreign trade.
But the United States is also not feeling good, which has dealt a serious blow to the credibility of the current financial system with the United States at its core.
And the sanctions have a broken window effect, after the United States sanctions Russia once, other countries will be much less afraid of US economic sanctions, and the deterrent effect of US economic sanctions will be reduced.
Not to mention the fact that after the United States imposed economic sanctions on Russia, because Russia maintained trade with China, its economy did not collapse, but still grew to a certain extent. Other countries are even less afraid of U.S. economic sanctions.
Therefore, the United States kicked Russia out of the SWIFT system is a matter of hurting the enemy by 800 and losing 1,000 by itself, but the United States still did such a thing, which can also prove the determination and strength of the United States to support Ukraine.
But here comes the funny question. The United States has previously sanctioned Russia with great fanfare, and it has also pulled its European allies together, so now that India is selling weapons to Russia, why does the United States not sanction India?
U.S.-India diplomacy has not stopped
The only explanation is that the United States already knows that its intimidation is useless. Although India is struggling, it is a relatively independent and sovereign country. The United States dragged the entire European Union and Russia to death, where did it have the courage to engage India?
Therefore, the United States can only turn a blind eye to India's behavior and let it go.
The direction of India's diplomacy
But when it comes to the arms trade between Russia and India, there is one more thing worth mentioning, and that is the direction of India's diplomacy.
We all know that before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India was biased towards Russia, and the diplomatic relations between the two sides were very good.
India-Russia diplomacy
However, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine progresses, Russia has shown a decline, and India has also shown a tendency to favor the United States.
In June 2023, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the White House and received high courtesy, after which the two sides said that they would carry out more cooperation, and the United States even stated that it would make India a "naval asset maintenance center in the Asia-Pacific region".
This is why it is obvious that India and the United States have begun to join forces because of their common strategic pursuits.
For India and the United States, they have a common competitor - China, so they have to hold together. But after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the relationship between Russia and China has been further improved, and India's relationship with Russia is very awkward at this time.
So India needs to weaken Russia's influence and start cooperating with the United States instead.
India-US diplomacy
However, the fact that Russia is buying arms from India proves that the relations between Russia and India have not yet come to an end, and India's diplomatic strategy is still vacillating between Russia and the United States.
Looking at the big from the small, it can be seen that India's foreign strategy has not made up its mind.
Although Russia and China are getting closer and closer, and India wants to strengthen its cooperation with the United States, the problem is that the United States does not bring much benefit to India.
After all, now the performance of the United States is visible to the world, and if it has no influence, it has pulled NATO's full aid weapons to Ukraine, and let the Ukrainian army be suppressed by the Russian army in terms of firepower, how does India believe in cooperation with the United States?
Weapons assistance received by the Ukrainian army
Therefore, India does not dare to really put all the treasure on the United States, so Russia is still indispensable to India.
Resources:
[1] Reference News: "Foreign Media: Indian Prime Minister Modi Arrives in the United States for a State Visit"
[2] Global Times, "Russia-India Major Arms Trade Is Difficult to Advance Due to the "Settlement Crisis", and the Indian side is still unwilling to settle in RMB"