Recently, Russia's TASS news agency quoted Kazakhstan's Embassy in Russia as saying that Russia plans to build a pipeline to transport natural gas to China through Kazakhstan. The planned volume is comparable to that of the China-Russia Eastern Gas Pipeline, which opened at the end of 2019 and replaces the Siberia 2 pipeline through Mongolia and goes further to Kazakhstan.
So why not transit through Mongolia and take Kazakhstan even further?
Mongolia's relations with China and Russia
Historically, Mongolia used to be the territory of China, but with the rise of the Soviet Union and the internal and external troubles of the Republic of China government, with the support of the Soviet Union, the Living Buddha of Outer Mongolia Bokdoggen united with the local princes and nobles and declared their separation from the central government. Although Xu Shuzheng briefly recovered Outer Mongolia later, at that time, the warlords were fighting, and under the instigation of the Soviet Union, Choibalshan took Outer Mongolia out of control again. This had the same serious consequence, with the 170,000-square-kilometre Tangnu-Ulianghai Sea becoming an enclave.
After the independence of Mongolia, Tangnu-Ulianghai became an enclave
During World War II, in order to prompt the Soviet Union to send troops to Northeast China, the United States agreed to Stalin's request to maintain the status quo in Outer Mongolia. At that time, Song Ziwen ran to Moscow, and Stalin arrogantly said, if you have the ability to defeat Japan, solve it yourself, otherwise don't talk nonsense.
After independence, Mongolia maintained close relations with the Soviet Union, copied the Soviet model, and was influenced by the Soviet Union for a long time, and its foreign policy was fully tilted towards the Soviet Union. Think about it, is it better to copy the Soviet model? After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the days of Mongolia were Wang Xiaoer's New Year, and every year was not as good as the year.
Mongolia's population and mineral resources
After Mongolia's independence, it was influenced by the Soviet Union and because it was once Chinese territory, it did not have good relations with China for a long time. The improvement of relations with Mongolia was after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's economic situation was not good, and Russia's agricultural ratio was seriously out of balance, and it was a resource-based country like Mongolia, and I couldn't sell my own things, so how could I buy Mongolian things. So Mongolia can only seek help from China.
Mongolian Coal Mine
Mongolia's main economic source is the export of coal, iron, copper and other mineral resources to China. Mongolia's natural mineral resources are dominated by coal, phosphorus, copper, iron, gold, gypsum and rare earths.
Mongolian Coal Mine
Mongolia is a landlocked country with a relatively harsh living environment, arid and cold winters, more than half of the land is Gobi, and 90% of the population lives in the capital Ulaanbaatar. Mongolia has an area of 1.5 million square kilometers and a population of about 2 million. Mongolia's population is now 1/5 of Inner Mongolia's, and its total GDP is 1/20 of Inner Mongolia's. Mongolia is desperate to find a third neighbor, but its geography is too harsh, or too safe.
Mongolia has a harsh living environment
Relations between Mongolia and Western countries
In recent years, Mongolian-Russian relations do not seem to be as close as they were then, due to Russia's weakening power and a severe economic downturn. Especially after February 2022, Russia has been sanctioned by the West, and it is also powerless against Mongolia. Although Mongolia has clearly alienated Russia, it does not mean that China can completely replace Russia. Sandwiched between China and Russia, Mongolia has long been a target of the United States.
In 2003, Mongolia and the United States held the first bilateral military exercise, Khan Quest. Since 2006, it has expanded into a multinational peacekeeping exercise. And during this period, the United States also did one thing, which was to survey the minerals of Mongolia.
In 2013, more than 1,000 officers and soldiers from Mongolia, the United States and other countries participated in the "Khan Exploration" exercise.
Mongolia also has a navy
There is a terrier, the Mongolian navy, Mongolia also has a navy. But there are only a few people and a few boats, but the establishment is the same as that of the army.
In 2010, NATO officially declared Mongolia the 45th country to send a peacekeeping force to Afghanistan, and in 2012, Mongolia became a NATO partner, and in the same year, Mongolia joined the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
summary
Since Mongolia is a landlocked country sandwiched between China and Russia, and has no access to the sea, they rented a wharf in the port of Tianjin. Mongolia has several thousand kilometers of land borders with China and Russia, and since mankind said goodbye to cold weapons, Mongolia's military strength is not strong. For the sake of the small favors of the United States and the West, Mongolia has been playing balanced diplomacy for a long time.
Now that Russia, through the Kazakh embassy, is announcing the construction of a gas pipeline from Kazakhstan, we certainly want to choose an option that is less costly and less risky. From the current point of view, there is a bit of uncertainty in the relationship with Mongolia, Mongolia likes to sit on the ground and start the price, and transit through Kazakhstan is relatively safe.