Text/Expo History
Edit/Expo History
Before reading this article, please click "Follow", which is convenient for you to discuss and share, and can bring you a different sense of participation, thank you for your support [Bixin]
On July 6, 2023, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen finally got her wish and flew to Beijing Airport. She also became the second high-ranking American official to visit China successfully after Blinken.
However, in the "style" of the United States, we must toss and turn before high-ranking officials visit China, and we must give us a "dismount" in our home turf.
However, the final result of the negotiations was that Yellen made three commitments in front of the mainland high-level, that is, she admitted in disguise that "major matters" must be done according to China's words.
So, what happened before and after Yellen's visit to China?
What will be the future direction of Sino-US relations?
Get off the horse
The biggest core problem in the United States now is the collapse of national credit. Of course, this is all the result of its strategic short-sightedness.
The U.S. military fought the so-called "war on terror" in Iraq and Afghanistan for 20 years, and in the end, the world remembered only a few hundred thousand goats and a handful of coffee pots for $2,000. Just such a toss, there is a mountain of gold at home also have to be tossed away, not to mention that the American family has not a mountain of gold, but a bottomless pit that will never be filled.
Therefore, when the US debt crisis broke out, the world was very nervous, but no one was concerned. In addition, the United States is provoking the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and it is another series of magical operations.
First of all, the United States openly kicked Russia out of the US-led SWIFT system, and the world was instantly stunned, because this kind of thing could be their turn at any time. Then, the United States not only dragged the European Union into the water, causing the economies of European countries to mourn, but also brazenly blew up the "Nord Stream 2" gas pipeline. Such a thing happened to a world superpower, which made everyone understand that the foreign policy of the United States has no bottom line.
And the economy of the United States itself has been seriously hollowed out, but it is relying on the inertia of the "petrodollar" to continue to maintain economic hegemony, and harvesting the world's wealth one stubble after another.
Therefore, all countries have seen that the United States will not care about the life or death of other countries for its own interests. As a result, many countries in the world began to "de-dollarize" and began to sell US Treasury bonds.
The United States itself is also very anxious, the Fed actually put out "interest rate hike" and "water release", two "big moves" that could never be used at the same time in the past, but even so, the US economy shows no signs of improvement.
What to do?
Looking at the world, only the mainland with a super economic base can be the "savior" of the United States. The continent has the world's highest dollar reserves, more than 800 billion US Treasury bonds, and is the world's second-largest economy. Only if the mainland continues to buy large amounts of government bonds can other countries follow suit, then the recent increase in the US government debt ceiling will be meaningful.
The embarrassing thing is that the United States is comprehensively encircling and containing the mainland economically, politically and militarily.
The trade war has been fought with the mainland for several years. The Biden administration is again selling weapons to Taiwan and sending military advisers. In the South China Sea and the waters surrounding the mainland, the US military has dragged Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Canada and other countries to dangle and create a tense atmosphere.
In exchange for the overwhelming majority of other countries, in this situation, they would have long bowed their knees to the United States. On the contrary, the mainland has become more courageous in the war. Economically, exports to the United States are flying against the wind, and militarily, the United States has responded vigorously to air and sea provocations.
It can be said that the United States is basically in a state of exhaustion of donkey skills. Then, the United States was not reconciled. Just before Yellen's visit to China, the United States began a new round of so-called sanctions against the mainland, mainly restricting US investment in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum computers, and prohibiting American companies from exporting microchips to the mainland. Subsequently, the United States encouraged Japan and the Netherlands to start regulating the mainland in the field of chip manufacturing.
At this time, the United States can be said to be trying to see the dagger and directly use the ultimate killing move, the purpose of which is to completely strangle the mainland's high-tech industry and interrupt the pace of the mainland's peaceful rise.
What should we do in the face of danger from the enemy?
Sharp counterattack
IN TERMS OF CHIP PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY, THE HIGHEST PROCESS IS 14NM, WHICH CAN BASICALLY MEET OTHER PRODUCTION NEEDS EXCEPT FOR HIGH-END MOBILE PHONES.
But the mainland's goal is to become a world science and technology power, so 3NM is the higher pursuit of the mainland chip industry. Moreover, in areas such as artificial intelligence and supercomputing, high-precision chips are a necessity.
Therefore, the United States believes that this move against the mainland is "hitting the snake and hitting the seven inches." Its plan is to use this as a "dismount" to the mainland, so that Yellen's visit to China can negotiate some favorable conditions for the United States.
However, the United States underestimates the mainland.
The United States just announced on June 29 that it would impose sanctions on the mainland on artificial intelligence chips, and the mainland released a greater "cruel move" on July 3, that is, from August 1, the export control of gallium and germanium, two rare metals.
In an instant, the world's chip-related technology powers were all dumbfounded.
Why?
Because from the production of the second generation of chips, these two rare metals are indispensable. Without these "two", the production of high-end chips is a mirror.
In fact, the United States has long thought that the mainland will retaliate, so it has begun to study countermeasures since 2021, and the final result is "no way".
Why?
Take gallium, for example. Eighty-five per cent of the world's gallium reserves are on the continent, and 98 per cent of the world's gallium is produced on the mainland. Moreover, gallium cannot be refined alone, but as a by-product of alumina. And 60% of the world's aluminum production capacity is in China.
Then can't it be done abroad?
It can be engaged, but the production of aluminum is a high-energy-consuming industry, a complete electric tiger, and the electricity used by a production line is equivalent to one-third of a city's electricity consumption. This alone can make other countries cry.
Moreover, if the United States and Western countries really open up and build factories to produce aluminum, the final result is to get 1 ton of gallium, but who else to sell 100,000 tons of aluminum blocks? The price simply cannot compete with mainland products, so it can be added to the cost of gallium.
As a result, the price of gallium directly soared, and the price of high-end chips was also. This is still the best result, and from the current situation, the gallium reserves of Western countries will be used for up to 1 year. One year later, I am afraid that the recycling industry of old electrical appliances in various countries will be hot, so gallium can be recycled from these garbage.
It is precisely for the above reasons that after the mainland announced the control policy, the price of gallium and germanium was like a monkey. Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands, which followed the highest jump of the United States, immediately demanded consultations with the mainland, and the EU could not sit still. And the United States can only dryly write empty promises to its allies: it will help everyone solve it. But the question is, to solve it, it was solved 2 years ago, and it needs to wait until today?
Therefore, before Yellen came to China, the mainland had already engaged in a round of confrontation with the United States. Moreover, in this round of exchanges, the whole world has seen that the mainland can single-handedly beat the world in the field of raw materials for the production of high-end chips, and there is no need to pull gangs like the United States.
The United States has imposed sanctions on the mainland for so long, and the mainland has only slightly used "control" instead of "prohibition" to fight back, and the United States and the West are already in a rooky jump. And the mainland has to take any measures in terms of more powerful strategic weapons ~ rare earths.
As a result, the second round of high-level meetings between China and the United States can finally be held "fairly".
Who can have the last laugh?
When Yellen arrived in Beijing, the airport greeting ceremony was similar to Blinken's, a little deserted, but not surprising.
What is the purpose of her coming to China this time?
There are three.
The first, of course, is to ask the mainland to buy US Treasury bonds.
The second is more "pulled", that is, to let the mainland give up catching up in the field of high technology.
The third, which is more nonsensical, is to ask the mainland not to help Russia. This "gang" does not simply refer to military assistance, but wants the mainland to completely sever diplomatic relations with Russia, do not support Russia politically, and do not engage in strategic cooperation with Russia economically.
Of course, as an old fritters, Yellen has a lot in mind, and the first purpose is to talk. The second and third are only symbolic mentions, the mainland is simply impossible to accept, she said it in vain.
During her visit to China, Yellen held talks totaling more than 10 hours with high-level officials on the mainland. In her words, the talks were "direct", "substantive" and productive.
What is translated into the vernacular?
"Direct" means that both China and the United States have said everything that needs to be said, and their respective demands have been clearly expressed without ambiguity.
"Substantive" means that the United States has made concessions in what areas have been clearly expressed, and the extent to which the mainland can make it clear.
"Productive" means that both China and the United States fully understand what the other means.
To sum up, the two sides talked about everything that should be discussed, but as for the result, there was still none. We have to keep talking.
In terms of the specific content of the talks, the mainland must first put forward the red line of "Taiwan" and demand that the United States not continue to provoke the mainland's bottom line, which is a major premise for affirming all issues.
The mainland has also made full preparations for US provocations and adopted a language that the United States can understand. For example, the interception of American warships by our warships.
Second, the mainland certainly asks the United States not to continue the meaningless trade war, especially in high-tech industries, and completely abandon the containment of the mainland.
In this regard, as mentioned above, the mainland has introduced export controls on gallium and germanium. It's just a small bang. If the United States insists on going its own way, then sorry, your production enterprises will not plan to get raw materials. In a few years, wait to be crushed by the mainland's high-end chips.
Finally, the mainland is an independent country, and it is our own business to interact and cooperate with any country, and no one else cares.
For this, the essence of Biden's provocation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is aimed at the mainland. If Russia collapses completely, then the next target of the United States will undoubtedly be the mainland, and the means of containment will be even more cruel and despicable.
Therefore, the mainland will certainly strengthen its strategic cooperative relations with Russia and further accelerate the pace of cooperation in the large-scale development of the Far East.
It is precisely because the mainland has sufficient confidence and made sufficient strategic preparations that the United States has been able to sit down with the mainland and communicate calmly.
So, how will the relationship between the two countries change after Yellen's visit to China?
During the talks, Yellen made three promises to the mainland leadership.
First, the United States does not seek "decoupling" from the mainland. This means that the trade war may not be fought, and if it is fought, it will not be as fierce as in the past, anyway, mainland enterprises have adapted, but it is American companies that are not adapted. Otherwise, there would not have been so many bigwigs from the American business community lining up to visit China in May.
Second, the United States will continue to maintain communication with the mainland, manage differences, and properly implement the spirit of the meeting between the two heads of state. In this regard, the United States is asking the mainland. Because once the mainland "misjudges" the intentions of the United States, then the United States will not be able to eat and go.
Third, on the issues facing the economies and the world of the two countries, China and the United States demand mutual benefit and win-win results. In this regard, if the United States can understand that "one Pacific can accommodate China and the United States", then the face of the United States can be temporarily saved.
These three promises of Yellen are actually demands made by the mainland. Now, Yellen agreed and did as the mainland said.
An official of her level, speaking does not represent herself. Before coming to China, the US top level must have conducted sufficient research and made many corresponding plans. Without high-level authorization, Yellen could not have made such a commitment to the mainland.
Therefore, judging from the results of Yellen's current visit to China, it can be said that the mainland has won a major diplomatic victory after years of struggle with the United States. With Yellen's "step", the next step of heavier negotiations between China and the United States will go more smoothly.
Although the road is tortuous, the mainland will surely move from victory to new victory.