2023: Tesla to the left, new energy to the right?

The new energy circle after the year was completely brushed by Tesla, and a sudden price reduction not only put itself on the cusp, but also the entire new energy field was carefully examined and re-examined by the public.

In the past, no matter what kind of action each car company had, there would be a group of die-hard fans standing behind them to cheer for it. But now, the general environment directly raises the price in all consumer markets, the gap of tens of thousands of dollars is difficult to buy a car owner's brand loyalty, although Tesla does not talk about the price reduction of Wude so that it is criticized all over the word, it is still difficult to change the fact of "true fragrance".

Just when the complaints of Tesla owners were circulating everywhere on major social platforms, some reports showed that after the price of the vehicle was reduced, Tesla China received 30,000 orders in 3 days, and the number of customers entering the store on the weekend after the price reduction increased by 450% month-on-month. When more than a dozen new energy manufacturers such as BYD, Changan, Chery, Geely, and Nezha are raising prices to a greater or lesser extent, Tesla has become the most undignified winner in the scolding.

Will the "price butcher" come down again? Some people predict that if Tesla maintains a gross margin of about 30%, the final domestic pricing of the low-end version of the Model 3 may be reduced to less than 200,000. It is true that no one resisted the temptation of discounts, and the new energy field gradually diverged into two distinct tributaries.

In 2023, "all employees" will be high-end, except for Tesla?

Singing "opposite" with Tesla's price reduction is BYD, and some time ago, BYD announced two million-level luxury cars at the press conference. I don't know when it started, the new energy industry is particularly fond of luxury cars, the founder has spoken amazingly again and again, not counting it, in the past two years, even BBA seems to be invisible, and it has to be millions to satisfy their appetite.

According to statistics, the product prices of brands such as Gaohe, Ideal, Xiaopeng, NIO, Zhiji, Extreme Fox, Avita, Extreme Krypton, Lantu, AITO Qianjie and other brands have exceeded 300,000 yuan, not only BYD, but also Aion is also planning to attack million-level luxury cars. Coupled with the gradual retreat of new energy subsidies, even if they do not plan to go high-end, they have made a big fuss about the price.

Tesla cut prices, a number of car companies raised prices, and Xiaomi cars, which have not yet been officially launched, are under pressure that should not be understood. Lei Jun once did user research on the pricing of Xiaomi cars on his Weibo, and fan feedback showed that their most desired price range was within 100,000 yuan. But for now, Xiaomi's first car is priced at about 100,000-300,000 yuan, and the target is still mid-to-high-end.

In the future, will Tesla, which is constantly reducing prices, be out of place in the field of new energy? Although this problem cannot be easily judged, it has to be admitted that many car companies do need to use the high-end market to improve their confidence in the next few years. First of all, Tesla can unscrupulously reduce prices, while other car companies can only sigh, in the final analysis, it is still a matter of profitability.

It is no secret that the losses of the new forces in car manufacturing will only be much more after 2023. For example, NIO plans to invest more than 3 billion yuan in batteries and chips every quarter in the future; Ideal is expected to invest between 10 billion ~ 12 billion yuan in R&D in 2023; Xpeng spent 5 billion yuan to establish a battery company at the end of 2022.

Hold on, you need money everywhere.

In a sense, the high-end market has become a "nugget cave" that car companies must compete for, the data shows that in 2021, high-end brand passenger cars increased by 20.7% year-on-year, 14.2 percentage points higher than the broader market; in the first 11 months of 2022, the sales of domestically produced high-end brand passenger cars were 3.511 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%. Why did Tesla buck the trend?

Since Tesla officially entered China in 2014, this tram has always been a typical representative of luxury cars, with Model S starting at 648,000 yuan, and Model X prices exceeding the million mark. From January to November 2021, the average price of Tesla's bicycles was 285,000 yuan, ranking 11th, while the average price of Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi bicycles was 481,900 yuan, 402,300 yuan and 326,800 yuan respectively.

Even compared with several domestic ones, the average price of Tesla's bicycles has also declined step by step, with the average price of NIO and ideal bicycles being 413,800 yuan and 333,600 yuan respectively, ranking 4th and 9th respectively. Perhaps, Tesla's ambition has never been on the new forces around it, and what it wants to snipe at is those head car companies that are constantly attacking the new energy market and have intricate forces.

As early as 2020, Model 3 met the Volkswagen ID.3 in the European market, and the latter was close to Model 3 in sales within half a year, and others such as Kia Niro EV and Renault Zoe momentum should not be underestimated. In order to deal with these latecomers, Tesla has also been revealed that it will launch a new model in the European market in 2023, priced below $25,000.

No matter what market, Tesla's strategy to retreat from the enemy is simple and crude, which is laughable.

The king of the "flooded" trams

Although Tesla seems to be doing well in the hustle and bustle, stripping away the coat covered by layers of sales, Tesla's anxiety under price cuts again and again is exposed. In 2022, Tesla has not launched new cars for a whole year, and looking at the entire new energy market, it is a generation of new cars for old cars.

In the year when Tesla was not "new", from September 24 to October 08 alone, there were 18 new cars on the market with prices within 5.68-751,000 yuan, of which new energy vehicles accounted for almost half, namely Toyota Mirai, Maple Leaf 60sPRO, Skyfan R7, Ariya, Haval H6 New Energy, Zerorun C01, Haima 7X New Energy, Ideal L8, and Ziyoujia NV, with nearly 80 new cars listed throughout the year.

The new energy market has been fighting for a long time, and when Tesla slows down, the new car development cycle of other car companies is short and short. Taking Huawei as an example, on April 6, 2021, Cialis and Huawei officially announced their cooperation on the new energy vehicle project, and only 13 days later, Cialis Huawei Smart SF5 was born.

On the other hand, Tesla, the most popular Model 3 facelift will not be put into production until the third quarter of this year. During this period, the emergence of countless new cars such as BYD Seal and NIO ET5 snatched the limelight of Tesla's two hottest models, coupled with the previous Xpeng P7 and BYD Han, at least Model 3 and Model Y gradually lost their original status in the same price range.

For a long time, Tesla's price cuts from time to time have made the new energy field strange. Taking Model 3 as an example, according to the survey, in just one year from October 2019 to October 2020, the number of price reductions of Model 3 was as high as 5 times, according to incomplete statistics, Tesla has already adjusted prices more than 60 times since entering the Chinese market.

Perhaps frequently using Model 3 and Model Y as a "price butcher" knife is also no choice, after all, Tesla currently sells 4 models worldwide, and Model 3 and Model Y market sales account for 94.5% of the whole. Every time Tesla cuts prices, technological progress is almost unchanged, but today, Tesla's proud integrated die-casting technology is gradually dispersed, NIO, Xpeng and even traditional car companies Volvo, Volkswagen, Audi, Mercedes-Benz are being introduced.

According to CITIC Securities, the penetration rate of integrated die casting worldwide is expected to reach 30% in 2030, conservatively estimated that the supporting value of bicycles is expected to reach 10,000 yuan, and the space of integrated die casting industry is more than 240 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 80% in 10 years. This may be a red flag for Tesla.

Will there be a steady stream of fans under Tesla's technological aura in the future? The price plunge has crushed brand credibility, the new energy field is slowly engulfing it, there is a set of data that may best describe Tesla's current situation, AutoPacific data shows that Tesla's brand effect was once an important reason for its sales ranking, in 2021, the proportion of potential electric vehicle buyers in the industry competition to buy the Tesla brand was 58%, but by 2022 this proportion dropped to 53%.

Is it sad? In fact, Tesla has long been aware of this.

Don't laugh at Tesla, think about yourself first?

In 2022, the entire new energy market is overjoyed. Data show that in 2022, domestic new energy vehicle sales will be 6.7 million units, a year-on-year increase of 90.3%, and in 2023, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects that this year's new energy vehicle sales will be about 9 million, a year-on-year increase of 35%.

That's not a good sign, and the 35% growth is a far cry from last year. As early as November 2022, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of auto dealers reached 1.88, up 39.3% and 6.8% year-on-year, respectively, which is about to break through the warning line, and what's more, the passenger association predicts that the car market will have zero growth this year.

It is reported that as of January 5, 2023, the valuation of the CSI New Energy Vehicle Index is about 28, which is around 13% of the valuation quantile in the past four years, which is basically the lowest point after opening the current round of new energy vehicle market. With the increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles, this field that has been galloping for several years has also reached the point where it is time to calm down.

Moreover, the market of fuel vehicles is still stubborn and strong, which is undoubtedly a bump in the next direction of new energy. Unlike other consumer fields, the consumption cycle of automobiles is very long, generally speaking, the average replacement cycle in the world is about 14-15 years, and the replacement cycle in the mainland is the shortest in the world, but it also has nearly 6 years.

Coupled with the cooling of subsidies, in 2023, new energy vehicle companies may usher in a real big wave, and from then on, they will rely on their own abilities. First of all, it is inevitable that we cannot continue to sit on the domestic market share to sit and watch the sky, although the mainland is a must for the new energy industry, but there is more fat and meat, and the pressure is great.

In November last year, it also reached a cooperation with the local Phoenix company in the Thai market, won 150,000 new energy vehicle orders, and plans to build a new company in Thailand.

But going overseas is not necessarily a simple matter for those car companies dominated by the domestic market, even BYD is no exception, BYD is the global sales champion in 2022, with a cumulative annual sales of 1.8526 million units, a year-on-year increase of 208.64%, but officially disclosed data In 2022, BYD's cumulative exports of passenger cars will be 55,916 units, accounting for only 3% of annual sales. This means that once the domestic market changes, the overseas road still needs a lot of effort.

Of course, car companies also regard high-end as another way to help themselves, and the prospect of high-end cars is indeed heartwarming to describe under a set of data, but no one can assert the probability of success in positioning transformation, or take BYD as an example, BYD has launched high-end Denza before releasing million-dollar cars.

However, according to data released by BYD, Denza sold 6,002 vehicles in December last year, accounting for only 2.55% of BYD's 235197 sales in the same period. After Tesla cut the price, the store was almost flooded with the owner's saliva, but Rao is so, other families are still envious while watching the excitement.

Everyone laughs at Tesla, but everyone is not Tesla.

Professional Pai, formerly known as Koi Finance, provides you with professional and extremely neutral business observation. This article is an original article, and any form of reproduction without retaining the relevant information of the author is refused.