Straight News: What does it mean that the United States and South Korea claim that they will use US strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula through consultations if necessary?
Liu Heping: Actually, the United States has many strategic assets, including strategic bombers, intercontinental missiles and nuclear weapons. Although the United States and South Korea did not explicitly specify which weapons they would use when they claimed to use US strategic assets to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat, South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup and US Defense Secretary Austin made a special visit to the US Andrews Air Base after the US-ROK security meeting in Washington to inspect the B-1B and B-52 strategic bombers that can carry nuclear warheads.
I think the political signal behind this gesture is very clear, that is, although the United States has not deployed nuclear weapons in South Korea, if South Korea is attacked by North Korea, the United States will use B-1B and B-52 strategic bombers to carry nuclear warheads against North Korea. Then, in connection with the Nuclear Posture Review released by the US Pentagon a few days ago, we can find that the US refuses to commit to the first use of nuclear weapons and threatens to preemptively use tactical nuclear weapons in this report, which is not only aimed at Russia, but also against North Korea.
In addition, I would like to remind you that in the past, the United States has also issued strategic nuclear threats to North Korea, but not only in words, but also only in vague statements such as extending protection for South Korea, but this time the strategic nuclear threat issued by the United States to North Korea not only has a specific and implementable action plan, but it was also announced in the form of a joint statement after the security meeting between the defense ministers of the United States and South Korea. All of this represents a critical and substantial escalation of the U.S. strategic nuclear threat to North Korea.
Straight News: In your opinion, will the United States deter strategic nuclear strikes on the peninsula under specific circumstances in the future?
Liu Heping: I think that although the U.S. strategic nuclear deterrence against the DPRK has risen from the level of a verbal to a formal written statement, and the U.S. seems to have come up with an action plan for a strategic nuclear strike against the DPRK, it is still within the scope of strategic nuclear deterrence, that is, to deter the DPRK from launching a nuclear strike against the ROK in this deterrent manner. It is unlikely to translate into real action in the foreseeable future.
First of all, the "some special situation" that you just talked about, I don't think it will happen. This so-called "certain special circumstances" should include: First, the outbreak of the second peninsula war between the DPRK and the United States and South Korea, which I have repeatedly mentioned in previous comments, because the current security situation on the peninsula is in some kind of unequal balance of terror, under such circumstances, neither the United States nor South Korea nor the DPRK will and dare not easily launch a large-scale war.
Second, North Korea launched a nuclear attack on South Korea, which is even more unlikely. The Nuclear Force Policy Decree promulgated by the Supreme People's Assembly of the DPRK not long ago not only openly promised to regulate the use of nuclear weapons and would not use nuclear weapons lightly, but also made it clear that the DPRK would not use nuclear weapons or deter the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries without colluding with other nuclear-armed states to participate in acts of aggression and attacks against the DPRK. In other words, as long as South Korea, which does not have nuclear weapons, does not collude with the United States to invade North Korea, North Korea will not use nuclear weapons against South Korea. Second, South Korea, as a North Korean homonym, is unlikely to allow the United States to retaliate nuclear against its fellow North Koreans, even in extreme circumstances.
In addition, China has repeatedly stressed that it will not allow war and chaos on the peninsula, and of course it will not allow the United States to use nuclear weapons on the peninsula. Therefore, the United States' nuclear retaliation against North Korea must also take into account the feelings of China and Russia, which are in the same water as North Korea.
Straight News: We see that both South Korean and U.S. intelligence believe that North Korea is highly likely to conduct its seventh nuclear test by the end of this week as the United States holds midterm congressional elections next week. What do you think about this?
Liu Heping: Actually, it has been nearly a year or so since the rumors spread by the United States and South Korea that North Korea will conduct a seventh nuclear test, and at least so far, the boot has not landed. I still insist that the reason why North Korea has exercised restraint and concealment in its seventh nuclear test is not mainly because it is afraid of the United States, Japan and South Korea, but because it needs to take care of the feelings of China and Russia.
But then again, if North Korea does conduct its seventh nuclear test before the US midterm elections, it will not only not cause trouble for the Biden administration and the Democratic Party in the midterm elections, but may help the Biden administration and the Democratic Party. Because such a sudden event is exactly what the Biden administration and the Democratic Party cannot seek, it can help the Biden administration and the Democratic Party divert the public's attention, so that the American people and public opinion no longer focus on the Biden administration's poor governance of inflation, and at the same time, it is equivalent to making a ball for the Biden administration, giving the Biden administration the opportunity to show its tough style in responding to the North Korean nuclear crisis, thereby winning the support of voters.
From that perspective, I think that's why the intelligence agencies of the United States and South Korea are at this juncture spreading the idea that North Korea is about to conduct its seventh nuclear test and to promote the North Korean nuclear threat. At the same time, this is precisely the reason for deliberately conducting a provocative "Vigilance Storm" joint air exercise against North Korea at this time, and provoking North Korea to take retaliatory measures. It is worth noting that the leaders of the United States, Japan and South Korea will hold a special summit meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Indonesia to further promote trilateral defense cooperation. I believe that all this means that the initial strategic goal of the United States to stimulate North Korea to retaliate through military pressure to promote military cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea has been achieved.
The author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"