Virtual reality headsets have reportedly been around for years, and many teens have bought them, but are they using them in a smartphone-like way? So far, the answer is no.
A few days ago, the US securities company Piper Sandler released a report on virtual reality devices, "Spring 2022: Evaluating the Youth Market". About a quarter (26 percent) of teens surveyed said they had purchased a virtual reality headset, a penetration rate higher than many expected, though only 5 percent said they would use headsets regularly, and device usage and engagement rates were sluggish.
At present, the use of VR devices is not high, there are many reasons, such as for most consumers, the price of headsets has not come down, and the application software is not rich enough.
However, content and software may not be a "roadblock", because the concept of a virtual reality-based metaverse is beginning to appear on the market, which may solve the problem of low device penetration. From vr applications, there are not enough killer apps that attract the attention of users.
Game
It is reported that the revenue scale of the global online game market has increased to $200 billion, with 3 billion gamers worldwide. The "Z era" (equivalent to China's post-95s and post-00s) crowd and the subsequent groups that grew up in the digital world naturally entered the game market.
Microsoft, Meta's technology rival, is currently coveting the game market, and the company's roughly $70 billion deal to buy game developer Activision Blizzard is in progress.
A recent study of Gen Z gamers conducted by Vice Media Group and advertising agency Razorfish found that over the next five years, one-fifth of these groups' entertainment and leisure spending will be spent on a variety of in-game spending.
If you shift the perspective to virtual reality games, there are very few at present. According to statistics, on the popular gaming platform Steam, only 3% of users use virtual reality devices to play games.
Other content
Concerts and sports also have great prospects for virtual reality applications, but no real engine has yet emerged in these two markets.
In the field of education, virtual reality devices can bring immersive teaching courses, allowing students to travel around the world to conduct "virtual field visits" and explore the bright prospects offered by virtual reality. However, VR education has not yet been substantially launched.
For the foreseeable future, the metaverse will certainly be the biggest application area of virtual reality, just like the science fiction movie "Dreamland", people can invent and create in the metaverse and enjoy new beauty.
Gamble
Needless to say, Facebook's platform parent company, Meta, is gambling on the metaverse. The company's current revenue comes mainly from online advertising on several social tools (such as Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp), which accounted for 97.5% of revenue in the most recent quarter. Obviously, Meta hopes to diversify revenue through the metaverse.
Last week, Meta executives attended the "Milken Institute Global Conference, known as the U.S. version of Davos). Attendee Nicola Mendolsohn, the company's vice president of global commerce, told the press that at the conference, everyone was discussing the concept of a metacosmity.
Meta's "Reality Labs" division, which develops various products for Metacosmectron, shows revenue of just $695 million. Reality Lab remains a cash-burning division for Meta to gamble on future opportunities.
According to the earnings report, the Reality Labs division lost $2.96 billion in the first quarter, larger than the $1.83 billion loss in the first quarter of last year. Management said that although the size of the department's spending exceeded expectations, in the future, they will still be the sector where spending is growing. It is reported that to date, Meta has invested $10 billion to develop the meta-universe concept.
In Meta's view, meta-universe investment to revenue growth, as well as future profits, will be a long journey. At a recent earnings analyst meeting, the company's head, Zuckerberg, said that the reality lab will be longer from profitability than the traditional software the company has developed in the past.
Zuckerberg said that the metacosm will become the next important platform for Meta, which is related to the company's mission, and it can also bring business and value similar to smartphones, and the company is investing heavily, "Now I realize that building a metacosm is expensive, which is something that has never been developed before." ”
Some experts believe that through large investments, the metaverse field will soon lead to major breakthroughs.
Sarah Ostadabbas, a computer scientist at Northeastern University, said that in the field of virtual reality, humans have already gained major innovations, so they are only one or two killer applications away from large-scale popularization.
Aosta said that the previous generation of virtual reality devices had too long delays and poor head positioning technology to be almost useless, but Meta's Oculus product had overcome major obstacles.
On Monday, Meta will open its first virtual reality brick-and-mortar retail store that will showcase VR technology and make it possible for consumers to buy Quest 2 headsets. The company is also working on a high-end device, code-named "Cambria Project," to be released later this year.
A breakthrough in design
It should be pointed out that in addition to the existing technological breakthroughs, industrial design is another growth space for virtual reality headsets, and Apple is the king of this field (rumors say that Apple is also developing headsets).
David Lasala, an expert at New York University, said there have been rumors in the industry for years that Apple will launch a virtual reality or augmented reality headset that will disrupt the industry.
However, Rithra said that among the active products in the virtual reality market, Meta's Quest 2 is a clear leader. Probably in second place is the Valve Index. Other head-mounted devices to watch include Lynx and Pico Neo, Pimax, Varji, HTC Vive, and Windows-based mixed reality devices.
At present, Meta is not a single VR hardware company, so there may be many niche companies in the market that use the most advanced technology to launch products.
Aosta of Northeastern University said he thinks Meta wants to develop a metaverstem platform, or operating system. When Meta and other social networks began to crowd out Google, Google was terrified and then began to enter the smartphone market to avoid marginalization. Similarly, Meta recently found that smartphone manufacturers only need to change one policy to impact their business models.
Recently, Apple and Google's smartphone operating systems began to restrict targeted advertising, which cost Meta a lot of money. The company's chief financial officer predicts that Apple's changes to its privacy policy will result in a $10 billion loss of advertising revenue for Meta this year.
The hardware may be a pit
Internet companies to do hardware, there are also risks. For example, Google has developed the augmented reality device "Google Glass" in the past, but the result is not smooth, and it is currently only getting limited applications in the enterprise, industry and 3D TV field.
At the earnings conference, Zuckerberg said the best experience will be on virtual reality devices, followed by augmented reality platforms, especially Meta's own Quest platform. He also said that it will make it easy for users of other platforms to enter Meta's metaverse, "without even needing a headset." ”
Regardless of which company wins the headset wars (assuming consumers buy it), there is another question in the metaverse, which is what exactly do users do in the metacosm? What is the real value?
In the eyes of some skeptics, the metacosm is a bubble, just a new bottle of old wine, nothing new in substance. However, there is one term that may refute doubt, and that is "presence image".
Aosta said that if you compare the metaverse and the internet, the most interesting difference besides the sense of immersion is the presence image, i.e. "your avatar."
The scholar said that in the metaverse, it would feel a bit silly if the user met someone else in the form of a "purple octopus," but the presence image includes more than that.
Aosta believes that the Internet is a huge source of information, and netizens browse information without even leaving any mark. Unless they comment, netizens are largely invisible. But in the metaverse, each person's avatar means that consumer content also needs an image, so exploration activities will become more active and interactive.
In addition to avatars, Meta has another promise to the metaverse: community. Although the advent of social media has led to the depreciation of the term "community", in the metaverse, community has a new meaning, a free community without any real-world geographical constraints.
In the real world, Aosta said, community creation and development are limited, such as children's schools or work colleagues. But in the metaverse, one can reconstruct the community experience, and through a broader sense of belonging, human life is elevated.
Metaverse core
At the heart of metaverse construction is a social platform called Horizon Worlds. Meta said that after the construction of the infrastructure, the next step is to focus on developing the community.
According to Rice of New York University, if ideal, the metaverse will allow people to know themselves more deeply and continue to grow, heal, make art, and learn.
It's conceivable that half of the world's population would meet and work in virtual reality without commuting, but so far, Rice hasn't studied the carbon emissions of server data centers, semiconductor production, and other links compared to transportation, Rice said.
In Meta's view, today's business model is actually a bridge to the business model of the future. Speaking at the earnings analyst conference, Zuckerberg said the metacosm is a new way of thinking about computing and interpersonal connections.
He said that in the coming years, Meta's financial goal is to generate enough operating revenue from existing social tools to support investments in the reality lab division, while boosting the profitability of the entire company.
Selfish money-making tool
Aosta said that the metaverse also has the potential to become a selfish "money-grabbing tool" that monitors users at a deeper level, such as various augmented reality tools that can build a social graph of users and monitor interpersonal communication in an unprecedented way.
In the past, computer algorithms categorized network users, causing great controversy, and the purpose of algorithms was to stimulate advertising clicks and expand revenue.
If this business model continues, the metacosm could become "Google or Meta's own Internet," only this time users will have their own avatar through headsets.
Zuckerberg told Wall Street analysts that with the launch of Horizon World on various platforms, some short-term business phenomena may resemble today's apps.
Recently, Meta has been bombarded by some developers and has been accused of planning to charge high commissions on transactions in virtual assets.
Meta executive Meng Desong stressed that the fundamental reason for Meta's history is the evolution of success itself, "I have been in the company for nine years, and we have undergone many major transformations in the past. The executive was referring to Meta's shift from computers to smartphones, as well as products like "Instagram Stories."
Meng Desong said that the metacosm concept became a reality, and there are still a few years to go, and the metacosm is a continuation of today's Meta. Brands such as Wendy's Fast Food, for example, used Meta's video and advertising products in the past, and last month they launched virtual restaurants in Horizon World.
Zuckerberg also mentioned: "The metaverse is laying the foundation for the future, and I will see an exciting 2030s." ”
Source: Sina Technology
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