"New energy is on the line for a long time, short-term fluctuations are normal, investment is to exercise the mentality", in January 2021, when He Yu was flustered by the decline of the new energy vehicle fund, the words of friends engaged in the securities industry gave her a "reassuring pill".
As a result, in April this year, He Yu asked again, "Is it time to read the bottom and increase the position?" ", learned that the other party in order to reduce the loss point, has thrown away part of the new energy vehicle fund held, and suggested He Yu, the stock market rebound time is uncertain, do not bottom.
Image source: Gaz Cars
According to more than 1,800 related theme survey feedback recently initiated and received by Gaz Auto, after 2022 to the present, 80% of the participants have negative yields, and even nearly 50% have fallen by more than 30%, which has been in the stock market for more than five years. Comparatively speaking, He Yu was lucky, after all, the principal was still there.
Fall back to square one
"As a related practitioner in the automotive industry, I have a certain understanding of the development trend of new energy vehicles, and it is based on optimism about the industry that I have purchased relevant funds," He Yu said.
Such cases are not rare, And The Gestapo Auto Survey found that 76% of the participants who bought auto stocks were auto industry-related practitioners like He Yu. Based on their understanding of the automotive industry, nearly 60% of participants have invested heavily in the field of new energy vehicles.
Image source: Gaz Cars
A securities practitioner said that the fund stocks are basically selected from the leading enterprise stocks in the industry, and the investment in new energy vehicles generally prefers head enterprises such as Ningde Times, BYD, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Enjie Shares.
In 2020, everyone has caught up with the new energy vehicle outlet. The data shows that there were more than 90 new energy vehicle concept stocks that rose by more than 50% a year, and more than 30 people rose by more than 100%. Among them, some individual stocks such as BYD and Tianqi Materials have more than doubled their gains.
He Yu has seized the tail end of the growth of the new energy sector, and the relevant funds purchased in 2020 have a yield of 20% in less than two months. "The highest yield in 2021 was about 90%, but unfortunately it did not close after seeing good," He Yu said. As recently as April 27 this year, the cumulative yield of the fund held by Ho Yu has fallen to 3.64%.
Image source: Provided by He Yu
Compared with He Yu, Lin Hua's situation is slightly better, she entered the stock market half a year earlier than He Yu, and her eyes have expanded from the new energy vehicle fund to Tesla and new force concept stocks. "2020 is the era of Tesla, from the beginning of the year to the annual sales of 500,000 vehicles, to a certain extent, opened the era of private consumption of new energy vehicles in China," Lin Hua analyzed. So she seized on this point and focused on Tesla concept stocks, as well as the ideal and Xiaopeng concept stocks that had successively gone to the United States for IPO, which also made the stocks she held that year soar.
But she regretted that she failed to seize the Tenghanghui of the Ningde era, "at that time, it was less than 200 yuan per share." "In May 2021, CATL became the first Chinese new energy automobile company with a market value of more than one trillion yuan, closing at 434.1 yuan per share, and then ran all the way, touching 692 yuan per share at the end of the year.
Adjusting the position at the end of the year is a habit that makes Lin Hua so happy so far, so that she is not too affected by the stock market fluctuations this year, "I only left a little bottom position", but unfortunately, the "playing style" of different funds is still difficult to escape the doom.
Lin Hua has the same experience as Guo Li, a cautious fund investor who sells the profit part every time the yield exceeds 50%. However, in 2021, due to the long-term high prosperity of the new energy vehicle sector, he relaxed his vigilance, and now the cumulative income is about to fall back to the original point.
As He Yu's "enlightenment teacher" who entered the stock market, Huang Yu, a securities practitioner, could not escape being "harvested" by the broader market. "The new energy vehicle fund yielded 50% a year ago, and this year it lost 30%." In order to reduce the loss, he sold 30% or 40% of the funds he held.
Image source: Network
As said at the beginning, investing in new energy is to exercise the mentality, compared with the rapid progress of the new energy vehicle sector in the previous two years, it has been a thousand miles since 2022. This has made more and more shareholders start to consider whether to continue to hold or liquidate their positions. Judging from the survey data, nearly 30% of the participants chose to reduce their positions, and 15% of the participants, including Guo Li, directly cleared their positions.
But there are always one or two who are slow to react, such as Lin Hua, who is busy with work and has not adjusted the warehouse in time, and He Yu, who insists that this is only a temporary adjustment.
Two black swan events were the trigger
Recently, for the stock market, the A-share index fell below 3,000 points to trigger a cry, and this in the eyes of securities analysts, but did not touch the bottom, "the lowest may be around 2800 points."
He further analyzed and pointed out that the capital market's forecast for the economy in January this year is still stable and upward. As far as the new energy vehicle market is concerned, although it may not be possible to continue last year's high state, the good situation is still the same.
Image source: Network
However, the Russian-Ukrainian incident at the end of February and the consequent outbreak of the epidemic have changed the development trend of the stock market and even the entire economy this year. "The timing of the two black swan events is too similar, everyone has been hit one after another, and the forecast of the stock market and the economic situation has become more pessimistic." The analyst said.
According to the analysis of the Gaz Automotive Research Institute, more than 70% of the world's semiconductor supply of neon, krypton, xenon and so on comes from Ukraine, and part of the supply of palladium and nickel comes from Russia. Affected by multiple factors such as the epidemic, the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the lack of production capacity supply, the price of raw materials upstream of power batteries has risen sharply. Compared with 2020, the current cost of lithium iron carbonate and ternary power batteries has increased by 42% and 27% respectively.
The war caused panic and had an impact on global stock markets. For example, nearly 4,000 individual stocks fell in China's A-share market on February 24, and the Shanghai index closed down 1.7%. The war continues, and the outbreak of the epidemic in many parts of the country in early March has further hit the confidence of shareholders. Everyone began to recover funds, and "stability maintenance" became the primary consideration. Judging from the survey results, 17% of users believe that the stock market recovery time is "difficult to say".
Ningde era stock price trend in the past year, image source: Baidu Stock Market Pass
In Lin Hua's view, this also happens to be the best time for the new energy vehicle sector to bubble. In 2020, China's new energy vehicle sector experienced a unilateral upward state, and last year, the sector index rose again by 42.72% throughout the year. She believes that it is normal for the new energy vehicle sector to retrace to a reasonable range. Recently, the valuation of the new energy vehicle sector has dropped significantly. As of the close of trading on April 29, BYD had a market value of about 707.4 billion yuan per share of 233.8 yuan; CATL was 409.35 yuan per share, with a market value of about 954.1 billion yuan, falling back to within one trillion yuan.
The above-mentioned analysts also believe that when the stock market falls to the bottom, a new equilibrium point will be formed, and companies with good fundamentals will also emerge.
The long-term trend of new energy has not changed
When asked about the future trend of the new energy vehicle sector, more than 80% of the participants said they would pick up. Based on this, 42% of the participants intend to hold the purchased auto stocks or funds for a long time, and 11% consider adding positions at a low price.
Image source: Gaz Cars
It is undeniable that problems such as rising raw material prices and lack of cores, coupled with repeated epidemics, have led to obstruction of automobile production and sales, and pushed up the price of new energy vehicles. Although the new energy vehicle market is still higher in the first quarter of this year, the Gaz Automobile Research Institute predicts that due to the blow to consumer confidence, the sales of new energy vehicles may be affected throughout the year.
To this end, the state has introduced corresponding policies to protect the economy, production and consumption. On April 26, the General Office of the State Council recently issued the Opinions on Further Releasing Consumption Potential and Promoting the Sustained Recovery of Consumption (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), which proposes to steadily increase bulk consumption such as automobiles in the automotive sector, including the prohibition of new car purchase restrictions in various regions and the comprehensive cancellation of the second-hand car relocation policy. It also mentioned supporting the accelerated development of new energy vehicles, encouraging qualified areas to carry out new energy vehicles and green smart home appliances to go to the countryside, and promoting the construction of supporting facilities such as charging piles (stations).
In the view of 80% of the survey participants, the impact of the epidemic on the new energy vehicle market is short-lived, and they are still optimistic about the long-term trend.
Image source: Gaz Cars
New energy vehicles are a major trend in development. In October 2020, the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" was officially released, which clarified that by 2035, half of the new energy-saving and new energy vehicles in the mainland will be accounted for.
At the same time, consumers' recognition and tolerance of new energy vehicle products have been continuously improved. Gaz Auto understands that low-end electric vehicles under saic, GM-Wuling, Chery Automobile and other companies are gradually opening up the new energy vehicle market in cities below the third tier. Driven by both policies and markets, almost all car companies are also accelerating the layout of the new energy vehicle market, enriching the product matrix, and further activating the market.
In this context, Lin Hua and He Yu both chose to hold new energy vehicle stocks or funds for a long time. Guo Li also considered waiting for this wave of trough to pass, and then buy a new energy vehicle fund.
However, the above-mentioned analysts warned that it is not recommended to read the bottom, "Now (the stock market) is a unilateral downward state, do not know where the bottom is." ”
As for what time is right to increase the position?
Some insiders believe that it may be necessary to wait for the Shanghai epidemic crisis to be completely lifted, or when stocks have fallen to an all-time low and the market has digested the worst news. In his view, the sudden outbreak of the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta region centered on Shanghai has seriously affected the national automotive supply chain. And the epidemic has a greater impact on the landing effect of national policies, he said, for example, "is to introduce a policy to stimulate car purchase consumption, but the terminal does not have a car to sell? ”
A senior analyst at the Gaz Automotive Research Institute said that due to the extremely long automotive supply chain, if the epidemic in Shanghai can be controlled in mid-May, it may be expected to return to a relatively normal state in June, and normal production may be achieved in July. This is in line with the views of most participants. According to the survey, 41% of participants believe that the stock market recovery will take 6 months or more.
"At some point in the second half of the year, the stock market may rebound," the appellate analyst predicted.
(All interviewees use pseudonyms)