The market demand for on-board hydrogen storage cylinders is increasing rapidly, and the market competition in this field is also intensifying.
According to the statistics of the Hydrogen and Electricity Research Institute (GGII) of Gaogong Industry and Industry, in 2021, 4129 sets of hydrogen fuel cell on-board hydrogen storage systems were shipped in the Chinese market, an increase of 67.85% over the previous year; the shipment of on-board hydrogen storage cylinders was 30284 pieces, an increase of 122.43% over the previous year. It is estimated that the sales volume of domestic hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be 11,000 units in 2022, and the number of corresponding on-board hydrogen storage systems will reach 11,000 units.
In this situation, manufacturers of vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage cylinders are stepping up their preparations to try to build a deeper "moat" by upgrading technology and expanding production capacity. An invisible war has been waged in the field of on-board hydrogen storage bottles.
Shipments have increased significantly, and the market prospects are broad
"In the first quarter of this year, the company received more than 200 orders for on-board hydrogen supply systems, reaching more than half of last year's total sales." Hou Ligong, sales director of Kotec, said that since the beginning of this year, fuel cell vehicles equipped with Kotec's on-board hydrogen storage system have served the Beijing Winter Olympics, and the quality of the products has been well received by customers.
Companies like Kotec that have surged shipments of on-board hydrogen storage systems include Guofu Hydrogen Energy, Shunhua New Energy, Tianhai Industry, CIMC ENRIC and so on. Driven by the "Hydrogen City Demonstration", the expected growth of fuel cell vehicle sales has also driven the demand for upstream on-board hydrogen storage systems.
From August to December 2021, the five major demonstration cities of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China landed, and the "hydrogen into ten thousand homes" science and technology demonstration project in Shandong Province was officially implemented. Judging from the planning goals of each demonstration city cluster, it is expected that more than 38,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can be promoted by 2025. Coupled with the promotion plan of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in other parts of the country, by 2025, the total planned number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the mainland will reach 66,000.
In summary, GGII estimates that the number of domestic corresponding vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage systems will be 11,000 units in 2022, an increase of 171.3% over the previous year; domestic demand for vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage systems will be 37,000 units in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 73% from 2021 to 2025; and domestic demand for vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage systems will be 490,000 units by 2030, and cagring from 2021 to 2025 will be 70%.
If converted into hydrogen storage cylinders, the demand for on-board hydrogen storage cylinders in the Chinese market in 2022 will be about 69,000, an increase of 127.7% over the previous year. By 2025, China's on-board hydrogen storage cylinder demand can reach 230,000, 2021 to 2025 CAGR of 66%; by 2030 China's vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage bottle demand of 2.24 million, 2021 to 2030 CAGR of 61%.
In this context, some companies are ready to expand production.
"At present, the company has an annual production capacity of 40,000 hydrogen storage cylinders, and in order to cope with more market demand in the future, the company is ready to expand production." Hou Lijun said that in the second half of the year, Kotec plans to double the existing production capacity.
PK for new and old players, the competition is becoming increasingly fierce
Among the many domestic enterprises that lay out on-board hydrogen storage systems, the market share is relatively concentrated. GGII survey data shows that the top three companies with market share from 2020 to 2021 are relatively stable, namely Guofu Hydrogen Energy, Shunhua New Energy, and Ketaiq. However, judging from the share of different echelons of enterprises in the market in the past three years, the market is gradually developing from concentration to decentralization.
GGII survey data shows that from 2019 to 2021, the proportion of the national rich hydrogen energy market, which ranks first in the shipment of domestic vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage systems, is 35% to 45%, which is slightly declining year by year. The second echelon of enterprises, that is, the second to fifth enterprises in the shipment of on-board hydrogen storage systems, the total market share has also dropped from 53.83% in 2019 to 42.31% in 2021. The market share of the third echelon enterprises has increased year by year, and it will increase to 19.76% by 2021. From the perspective of competition form, from the two echelons of the first two echelons of the market to the three echelons of enterprises to divide the market situation equally.
In terms of hydrogen storage cylinders, there is no change in the first three enterprises in 2020 and 2021, and Guofu Hydrogen Energy's market shipments in 2021 account for 35.63%, ranking first. Because of the completion of the on-board hydrogen storage cylinder production line, Sinoma Technology will focus on the market in 2021, and the shipment volume will increase rapidly, ranking second. From the perspective of the market share of the shipments of each echelon enterprise, the market share of the second and third echelon enterprises has increased year by year, and the market competitiveness has gradually emerged.
In fact, not all companies involved in the vehicle hydrogen storage system can independently develop and produce hydrogen storage bottles, in order to eat the car hydrogen storage market cake, many forces have begun to join the market competition, grabbing the car hydrogen storage system market players are mainly divided into 5 categories:
The first is that at this stage, the company itself has the ability to integrate the on-board hydrogen storage system, and at the same time produces hydrogen storage cylinders, such as Guofu Hydrogen Energy, Kotec, Tianhai Industry, CIMC ENRIC, Sinoma Technology, etc.
The second is that the company itself does not produce hydrogen storage bottles, but has the ability to expand the market of on-board hydrogen storage systems, such as Shunhua New Energy and Lantianda;
The third is that it does not produce hydrogen storage cylinders, but has the ability to integrate the on-board hydrogen storage system, and the market expansion ability is slightly weaker than that of other enterprises, mainly to integrate the on-board hydrogen storage system, such as Xingchi blue hydrogen, Perry Hua hydrogen and so on.
The fourth is that the enterprise produces on-board hydrogen storage bottles, but does not integrate the on-board hydrogen storage system, and has the market expansion ability of the vehicle hydrogen storage system, so the on-board hydrogen storage system business is outsourced to the generation of integrated enterprises.
The fifth is that the enterprise is a hydrogen fuel cell stack or system enterprise, and there is a business expansion of the on-board hydrogen storage system.
In the layout of the core components of the vehicle hydrogen storage system hydrogen storage cylinder business enterprises, in addition to Guofu Hydrogen Energy, Kotec, Tianhai Industry, Sinoma Technology, Slinda and other old players, in recent years, there have been new forces to join. In 2020, Nantong CIMC will participate in market competition; in 2021, the shipment volume of Aoyang Technology hydrogen storage cylinders will exceed 1,000 units, the market participants will increase year by year, and the industry competition will become more and more intense.
The marketization of type IV bottles has been accelerated
At this stage, the domestic technology of type III vehicle hydrogen storage cylinder is relatively mature, the localization of key components such as pipe valves and sensors is relatively high, there is basically no bottleneck in development, and the industry is expanding in the direction of IV hydrogen storage bottles.
Because the IV type hydrogen storage bottle has the characteristics of lightweight, high pressure, high hydrogen storage mass ratio and long life, the prospect is widely optimistic, at this stage, domestic enterprises are mainly divided into technology introduction and independent research and development of two ways to prepare for the mass production of IV bottles.
In order to accelerate the pace of technological development, some companies have adopted the technology introduction method to enter the IV hydrogen storage cylinder market, and representative enterprises include CIMC Enric, Faurecia Slinda and other enterprises. Guofu Hydrogen Energy, Tianhai Industry, Sinoma Technology, Yapu Shares, Aoyang Technology and other companies use self-research methods to prepare for the mass production of IV hydrogen storage bottles.
At this stage, the main factor restricting the marketization of domestic vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage bottles is the price. There are three main factors affecting it: technological maturity, mainly the length of the cycle of technology from type III bottles to TYPE IV bottles (aluminum liner is replaced by plastic liner), and the ability to batch; the price of raw materials, mainly the price of carbon fiber; market demand and market competitiveness.
With the maturity of the production technology of 70MPa IV bottles and the localization of upstream raw materials, its cost will decline rapidly, thus promoting the rapid growth of its market demand and the rapid expansion of its scale. GGII believes that around 2030, the 70MPa IV hydrogen storage bottle is expected to be replaced by more than 90% of the 35MPa III bottle, and 100% of the 70MPa III bottle in passenger cars.
The localization of carbon fiber will play an important role in promoting the marketization of IV-type vehicle hydrogen storage bottles.
In the first half of 2021, there was a situation in China that a considerable number of hydrogen storage cylinder enterprises could not produce and ship normally due to the restriction of carbon fiber imports. With the expansion of the production capacity of domestic carbon fiber enterprises such as Zhongfu Shenying and Guangwei Composite, this situation will be improved in the future.
At present, the largest supply of carbon fiber in the field of on-board hydrogen storage cylinders in China is Zhongfu Shenying, whose production base in Lianyungang has an existing production capacity of 3,500 tons, and the company is building a high-performance carbon fiber and supporting raw silk project in Xining with an annual output of 10,000 tons, and has built and put into operation a production line with a production capacity of 6,000 tons / year.
Another carbon fiber giant in China, Guangwei Composites, has begun to supply to on-board hydrogen storage cylinder companies.
"Since the second half of last year, the company's core supplier of carbon fiber has gradually switched from Toray to Guangwei Composite, and the hydrogen storage bottles that currently use domestic carbon fiber materials have completed relevant verification and are shipped out." The market leader of a domestic hydrogen storage cylinder company said that with the acceleration of domestic carbon fiber substitution, the problem of shortage of core materials that plague domestic vehicle hydrogen storage cylinders will also become history.