The siphon effect in economics refers to an economic tornado caused by economic activity and has a strong attraction effect on surrounding individuals, collectives or countries. When Tesla is dominant in the field of new energy vehicles, is it a good thing or a bad thing for the entire market?
Tesla's net profit soared more than 6 times in the first quarter
In 2022, new energy vehicles are definitely a well-deserved outlet, but who would have thought that the wind would be so big? So that the car specification chip, power battery have a shortage of supply problems. However, in such a market environment, Tesla handed over a first-quarter financial report that rode the dust.
After the hours of April 20, Eastern Time, Tesla released a bright first-quarter financial report. Tesla's total revenue for the first quarter increased 81% year-over-year to $18.756 billion, with market expectations of $17.78 billion; net profit increased 658% year-over-year to $3.318 billion, with market expectations of $2.156 billion; earnings per share (non-GAAP) increased 246% year-over-year to $3.22, compared with market expectations of $2.26.
For revenue increased by 81% year-on-year, Tesla said it was mainly affected by the increase in vehicle deliveries, the increase in average selling price and the growth of other businesses. During the reporting period, Tesla set a new production record, producing a total of 305,400 vehicles, an increase of 69% year-on-year; delivered about 310,000 vehicles, an increase of about 68% year-on-year. Musk said on a conference call that Tesla should be able to produce 1.5 million cars in 2022. At the same time, Tesla aims to produce 20 million cars per year by the end of this century.
Commenting on the impact of the shutdown of the Shanghai Gigafactory due to the pandemic, Musk said: "We will see record production in Shanghai this quarter, although we missed a few weeks, and the production figures in the third and fourth quarters will be much better." It is reported that Tesla's Shanghai Lingang Super Factory has resumed work on April 19, the factory is produced in a closed-loop management mode, and the export of vehicles and parts will gradually recover.
Face supply chain pressures head-on
For the new energy automobile industry lack of electricity, lack of core problems, Tesla did not avoid, but frankly said that expanding production capacity is the core of the company's decision-making, the past 2 months the company has invested a lot of energy in internal battery production, raw material procurement and supplier diversification.
In the coming years, it is expected to achieve an average annual growth of 50% in vehicle deliveries. The rate of growth will depend on equipment capabilities, operational efficiency, and the capability and stability of the supply chain. Supply chain challenges persist, with Tesla's factories already operating below capacity for several consecutive quarters, likely until the end of 2022.
In addition to the impact of the chip shortage, the epidemic has also put pressure on the company's supply chain and factory operations. Tesla says the prices of some raw materials have risen several times in recent months. Although the company has been committed to reducing manufacturing costs as much as possible, these effects on the rising cost structure have prompted the company to adjust the pricing of its products. It is reported that Tesla has raised product prices several times since March.
According to the earnings report, nearly half of tesla's cars produced in the first quarter were equipped with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that did not contain nickel or cobalt and were used for commercial energy storage. The diversification of the chemical composition of the battery is essential for long-term capacity growth, which can better optimize the various uses of the product.
At the same time, Musk stressed the importance of raw materials on a conference call and revealed that some lithium-related announcements will be issued in the coming months.
Musk has publicly called for greater investment in lithium mining to fill the huge supply-demand gap created by the popularity of electric vehicles. "Battery production, or rather lithium, is the 'fundamental limiting factor' in the global adoption of electric vehicles and will encourage entrepreneurs who are looking for opportunities to enter the lithium industry, which is currently almost equal to the profits of software," he said. ”
Under the "unswerving" expansion strategy, Tesla rushes chips to batteries and even upstream resources to carry out a radical layout, and for the entire industry chain, maintaining a good cooperative relationship with Tesla, maintaining a "long order" is also of considerable benefit to its own operation, but the problem is that at the moment when the supply of resources is tight, if the upstream supply chain enterprises will focus on production capacity to Tesla, how do other companies in the field of new energy vehicles live by themselves?
Domestic new energy vehicles in the bumps
Geographical conflicts, unstable global capacity... At present, when the global new energy vehicle market is not stable, once Tesla brings a siphon effect, under the situation of a dominant company, the life of other new energy vehicle companies is not so easy.
On the same day that Tesla released its first-quarter financial report, ideal car official app released a description of the delivery delay: since the end of March, due to the requirements of epidemic prevention and control, ideal car part of the supply chain enterprises located in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions have been unable to supply. As a result, the production of the ideal car in April had a great impact, resulting in the delay in the delivery of new cars for some users. We apologize for this.
At present, Ideal Automobile is working with supply chain enterprises to actively restore production capacity under the requirements of epidemic prevention and control. Efforts are made to keep the delivery delay of users within 3 weeks. If you encounter any issues, feel free to consult the delivery experts of the ideal car. Thank you for your understanding and support.
According to China Securities News, 4S stores of different car brands in many places are facing serious imbalances in inventory, and the car pick-up cycle has been extended from 1-2 months to 4-5 months or even half a year.
China Securities News reporter visited dozens of automobile sales stores such as Great Wall Motor, Xiaopeng Automobile, and Weilai and learned that since the end of March, affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, Jilin and other places, the automotive industry chain is generally facing the shortage of spare parts, some vehicle companies have stopped production and work, and dealers have serious structural imbalances in inventory.
In addition to the supply chain crisis to be solved, the epidemic has also caused headaches for the entire new energy vehicle industry chain. On April 14, He Xiaopeng, CEO of Xiaopeng Motors, posted on Weibo that if the supply chain enterprises in Shanghai cannot dynamically resume work and production, all Chinese automakers will stop work and production in May.
As soon as this remark came out, it immediately caused a heated discussion among netizens, and some people thought that He Xiaopeng's remarks were somewhat exaggerated, after all, the domestic automobile market is so huge, and some car companies are only because of the epidemic prevention policy, there has been a brief suspension of work, and the large-scale suspension of production in the country is naturally a bit alarmist.
However, some people believe that the current epidemic situation in Shanghai has not yet ushered in an inflection point, coupled with the impact of many factors such as the international situation and the rise in raw material prices, there is indeed a risk of a comprehensive shutdown.
Although the supply chain is not optimistic, the domestic new energy vehicle terminal consumer market has frequently reported good news. According to the China Automobile Association, China's annual sales of new energy vehicles increased from 507,000 units in 2016 to 3.521 million units in 2021, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years. In January 2022, production and sales of new energy vehicles totaled 452,000 units and 431,000 units, up 1.3 times and 1.4 times year-on-year, respectively, with a market penetration rate of 17.0%.
How many new energy vehicles can China sell in 2022? Previously, the judgment given by the China Automobile Association was 5 million vehicles, an increase of 42% year-on-year, and the market share is expected to exceed 18%. The judgment given by the association is more optimistic: there is a chance to break through 5.5 million vehicles and achieve a high growth rate of about 70%.
However, under the seemingly beautiful data, people in the industry are also worried about the "catastrophic overcapacity" in the field of new energy vehicles.
Tan Xuguang, chairman and CEO of Weichai Group, recently said that in recent years, the new energy automobile industry has been relatively lively, and there has been a phenomenon of "swarms". New energy vehicles, especially in the passenger car sector, will have a catastrophic overcapacity.
"Overcapacity in new energy vehicles is not the first time this kind of problem has occurred." Zhang Xiang, dean of Jiangxi New Energy Science and Technology Vocational College and New Energy Automobile Technology Research Institute, said that around 2015, due to the high government subsidies at that time, a large amount of capital frantically poured into the new energy vehicle track, and enterprises have expanded production, resulting in serious overcapacity.
According to incomplete statistics, from 2015 to 2017, when the first batch of new car-making forces surged forward, the planned production capacity at that time was as high as 20 million vehicles per year. However, in addition to a few head enterprises, most of the new car-making forces have not come to the step of mass production. Among them, the sales volume of new car-making forces such as Bo County, Zhidou, Time and Space, and Lingtu in 2020 is 0. The Byton automobile, which cost 8.4 billion yuan to build that year, has long been empty and full of grass.
When structural problems encounter the siphon effect that Tesla may bring, how can domestic new energy vehicle brands plan their future? Perhaps, the 2022 half-year financial report of the new car-making forces can give us an answer.
Editor| Zhang Yi
Audit | Wu Xin